Notebook: Opportunity in Atlanta's rotation, a sleeper in Anaheim and a better way to play fantasy baseball

Please indulge me while I turn into an old man right before your eyes and complain to you without being prompted.

I think there are better ways to play fantasy baseball that we haven’t tapped into yet. Those ideas can be pushed aside until October or November — we’ll need a few logs for the fire then anyway.

Most of my friends and family don’t play fantasy baseball, but curiosity occasionally leads them to question some of the things about the hobby. The most frequently asked question:

“Why do you have pickups on the weekend, doesn’t everyone else have things to do?”

The best answer I can give in 2024, as I approach 20 years of writing and talking about fantasy sports for a living, is that it’s just always been done this way, and that reason is even less satisfying to say than it is to hear.

I assume that many other people who play this game have something they enjoy doing, or at least some obligations to their friends and loved ones to be present during the weekend. Heck, I’ve even heard speeches from NFBC Hall of Fame inductees, thanking their families for the time they had to spend working on free-agent bidding instead of spending those hours together.

My old boss from the RotoWire years, Peter Schoenke, was the first person I saw make this plea a decade ago. If he hasn’t been able to generate movement on this front, maybe this is just shouting into the void.

“It’s time for Sunday night pickups to go away!”

The alternative is simple. Run weekly pickups on Thursday nights, which works out great since Thursday night is not a weekend night, and like Sunday night, it’s not a particularly busy night for games. Plus, all 30 teams are scheduled to play each week on Fridays, offering a clean weekly lineup deadline day outside of the first two weeks of the season when Friday can be left open in the MLB schedule as a built-in makeup date for postponements.

Thursday is for pickups, and the weekend is just the weekend, in all of the best ways.

Imagine thinking about how much you want to spend trying to add Colton Cowser in a 12-team league before the weekend, instead of on Sunday afternoon while you’re driving back from a birthday party, a soccer tournament, a dance recital, or a trampoline park.

I’ll end my simple plea on this note. I realize getting your league(s) to change can be very difficult. This is merely tweaking the schedule, rather than updating scoring categories, expanding or shrinking rosters, or re-writing the constitution in your dynasty league, and when you look back at the changes that have been made to your league over time, you often wonder why your league ever chose to do it the old way.

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Here’s a quick look at the topics we discussed on the show this week.

Monday

The new week began with a recap of a bad weekend in baseball on the injury front with Spencer Strider (UCL sprain), Shane Bieber (Tommy John surgery), Luis Robert Jr. (hip flexor strain), and Trevor Story (dislocated shoulder) facing lengthy absences.

• As the Braves try to manage the absence of Strider, Bryce Elder is on regular rest the same day as Allan Winans, who was optioned to Triple-A after getting the turn in Strider’s place. Despite getting hit a bit in spring training, Elder had a 12:0 K:BB and showed improved numbers in Eno’s Stuff+ model. The longer-term eyes remain on AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, but Elder was an All-Star last season before a second-half fade and might be a nice “one-week early” stash with a two-start week approaching during the week of April 22.
• Injuries have piled up quickly on the White Sox’s position players. The loss of Robert, Eloy Jiménez, and Yoán Moncada have helped drop the team’s run scored projection from BP’s PECOTA to 658 this season (29th in the league). Those absences will almost certainly have a negative impact on the run production of the remaining rosterable bats — most notably, Andrew Vaughn — at least until Bryan Ramos and Colson Montgomery enter the picture later this season.
• As a longer-term trend of rising pitching injuries continues, should we consider reducing the number of pitchers in active lineups, adding IL spots, or making other modifications to roster rules in future seasons?

Tuesday

After focusing on the “who” from the weekend injuries, The 3-0 Show Reunion Tour focused on the variety of reasons “why” baseball is struggling to keep pitchers healthy. Spoiler: there is plenty of blame to go around.

• Beyond pitching injuries, we discussed the Pirates’ fast start and examined why things might be a bit different this time around after a 20-9 start through the end of April resulted in a 76-86 record in 2023. Paul Skenes is working in shorter outings thus far at Triple-A Indianapolis, where he’s turned in six scoreless frames with an 11:1 K:BB in his first two starts.
• How aggressively will the Marlins look to the future with their top two pitchers down following Tommy John surgery? Jazz Chisholm Jr. would be a very interesting fit for a lot of contending teams, but he won’t reach free agency until the end of the 2026 season. Jesús Luzardo is also three seasons away from free agency, but the league-wide need for pitching will drive plenty of interest. How many currently healthy players on the Marlins roster will be on their next playoff team?

Thursday

Jackson Holliday’s highly-anticipated debut with the Orioles took place Wednesday, leading us into our first Project Prospect of 2024, before looking at a few potential waiver wire pickups, and answering a handful of mailbag questions.

• After Thursday’s episode was recorded, the criminal complaint against Ippei Mizuhara was posted to Twitter by Meghann Cuniff. It’s a doozy, and offers answers to many of the questions that surfaced when this story first broke during the Seoul Series in Korea.
• Holliday debuted with the Orioles on Wednesday, leading us to wonder how his projections from The BAT X stack up to other middle infielders for the rest of 2024. With a 99 wRC+ built around a .257/.330/.378 ROS line (eight homers, 10 steals), Holliday’s numbers don’t jump off the page at first glance, but as we have discussed on the show over the years, prospect projections are often underwhelming. A quick spin with the FanGraphs Auction Calculator spits out fringe Top 40 middle infielder value for the rest of the season, but the “Would You Rather?” redraft toss-ups belong somewhere in the range of Jeremy Peña (fringe Top 20 MI) based on the possibility that Holliday exceeds expectations over the course of his rookie season.
• We also discussed the early struggles of Ceddanne Rafaela, who agreed to an eight-year extension with the Red Sox earlier this week. The extension reduces the chances of a lengthy demotion to Triple-A even if his early struggles persist, and Rafaela’s defense at a major position of need (center field) will afford him a lot of opportunities to reduce the chase and swing-and-miss that has been a part of his profile since debuting with Boston late last season.
• José Soriano is rostered in just 2% of NFBC Main Event leagues. He’s getting a shot in the Angels’ rotation while Chase Silseth (elbow inflammation) is on the IL. Soriano had Tommy John surgery in February of 2020 and again in June of 2021, so his workload will likely be managed carefully if he’s able to stake his claim for a permanent spot as a starter.

Friday

Join the Live Hive at 1p ET/10a PT on our YouTube channel!

• This week, we’ll discuss making early adjustments, look back at one of the most ridiculous homers Trevor May allowed and offer up a game plan for pitching to Mookie Betts.

(Top photo of Bryce elder: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports)