Michael Penix Jr. is betting his NFL future to prove he’s Atlanta’s franchise QB

There haven’t been many quarterbacks who have been drafted into a weirder situation than Michael Penix Jr.

The former Washington Husky was selected by an Atlanta Falcons team who had just committed $180 million to veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. He had no clear road to becoming the player he was selected to be. Nevertheless, he still found himself starting as a rookie.

Ever since then, it has been an up-and-down ride. There have been moments of brilliance, struggle, and injury, and now he is at a fork in the road with his professional career. NFL.com writer Nick Shook confirmed this by including him in his list of 11 ‘make-or-break players’ for the 2026 NFL season.

With Penix still working his way back from a season-ending knee injury — a process that seems to be on track, if not ahead of schedule, judging by Penix’s limited participation in OTAs this week — there’s a legitimate chance Tagovailoa begins the season as Atlanta’s starter,” Shook wrote. “If it’s a temporary measure, that’s fine, but Penix also wouldn’t be the first QB to get Wally Pipped in the NFL. It’s a plausible outcome in today’s minimally patient league, especially with a new regime now in charge.”

Michael Penix Jr. put his NFL future on the line with the Falcons in 2026

Penix Jr. is competing for the starting gig in Atlanta with Tua Tagovailoa. Unfortunately for him, Tua has a head start because he’s the healthy one.

This is a season that will define Penix Jr.’s career. If he performs, he cements himself as a franchise passer worthy of an extension. If he doesn’t, he either finds himself on the bench to start the season or gets benched, and the Falcons never look back — something Shook pointed out in his article.

‘Wally Pipped’ is the perfect analogy for his situation. As he goes on to explain, it may not matter how hard he works — his health could ruin everything. Hopefully, that isn’t the case because the two lefties deserve an equal shot at being a starter.

If anything, Penix Jr.’s controllable contract beyond this year should give him an advantage. But Shook does think believe he will end up starting at some point, with significant pressure on his shoulders.

“This situation is difficult because, no matter how hard he works, Penix might not have the full freedom to begin 2026 at full speed. When he does take the field, though, the pressure will be on. As a former top-10 pick whose brief success as a rookie largely pushed Kirk Cousins out of Atlanta, Penix will be expected to prove he’s continuing to develop, something he struggled to demonstrate in his second season before it ended abruptly with his third ACL tear. Hopefully, he’ll have most of the season to try to make it happen. Otherwise, questions regarding his future will only grow.”

The only thing we know for certain about the Falcons’ quarterbacks is that there is significant pressure on both potential starters. We will find out who is made for the moment as the summer progresses.