Well folks. We got a problem. We got a road problem. The Cardinals have won one game on the road this season. It is April 21st. Now, do I think this is probably a weird fluky quirk that can happen in baseball more than the Cardinals actually being a terrible road team? Yeah. Will I bet any money that the Cardinals will win a road game? Uh no. (I don’t bet, but pretending I did)

So bad news: we’re still on the road. Other bad news. You may have heard about the Braves bad start to the season. That is true. But they are now coming off a sweep. When you play an opponent can be as important as how good the opponent is. Whatever weird funk the Braves were in, they may be out of it. You should probably sell your stock of the Braves if they don’t win this series though. 1-9 road team beats you at home, ignoring context, is not the kind of team who makes the playoffs.

So you heard it here first. This is basically an elimination series for the Braves. We can end the Braves’ playoff chances in this series.

What they lost

They lost Jorge Soler and his bat, who they probably don’t miss paying, but probably do miss the bat. They traded two years of him for Griffin Canning, who they later nontendered, hence why we just faced Canning on a different team. It was purely a money-saving move, which given their start to the season, I’m sure Braves fans aren’t thrilled about that.

They also lost AJ Minter when he reached free agency. Who is off to an absolutely dominant start over in New York. I’m sure fans aren’t thrilled about that either. They lost Max Fried to free agency as well, who signed with the Yankees. He got quite a bit of money, I think they are more understanding of this one. They lost Charlie Morton, which looks like they jumped ship at the right time on that one.

They lost both Whit Merrifield and Adam Duvall. Duvall was… really bad last year. Neither player is signed to any team. They lost old friend John Brebbia, who was there very briefly. And they declined a club option on Luke Jackson who responded by signing with the Rangers.

What they added

Current everyday shortstop Nick Allen was an offseason trade. He was not very good in Oakland. He does have a .387 BABIP right now, so things are working so far. They signed Bryan de la Cruz, who was recently sent down to the minors after he had a 30 wRC+ in his first 16 games.

They signed Jurickson Profar to a three-year deal, which was immediately put on hold when he was suspended for 80 games this season. Current everyday leadoff hitter Alex Verdugo was a March signing. Yes, Alex Verdugo who signed a minor league deal with an MLB option, is the current leadoff hitter of the Atlanta Braves. In 621 PAs last season, he had a .291 OBP. It’s things like this that make me think this might actually be a bad team.

They made a few bullpen additions as well. Enyel De Los Santos was acquired in a trade from the White Sox. He’s been really good. They also traded for Rafael Montero a week into the season. He has gotten good results (2.25 ERA), but not actually been good (5 Ks to 5 BBs). They also purchased Scott Blewett – very unfortunate name for a reliever. Who is already on his third team of the season and what’s especially weird is he’s been very good this year.

What’s the same

He’s still on the team, but Ronald Acuna Jr is hurt right now. The Braves core is still very much here: Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II. They exercised Marcell Ozuna’s club option. He’s off to a blazing start. Jared Kelenic is still not very good. Orlando Arcia has been relegated to the bench for Nick Allen. He has a 43 wRC+ on the season.

Raisel Iglesias is still closing games for them. He’s been a mixed bag so far. He’s already allowed three homers, which also happen to be the only earned runs he has. Aaron Bummer and Dylan Lee are their two lefties still. Wow they’ve got a Bummer and a Blewett in their bullpen. All that’s missing is a Homer Bailey.

Monday – 6:15 PM

Erick Fedde (3.43 ERA/4.88 FIP/5.51 xFIP) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (2.55 ERA/3.55 FIP/3.03 xFIP)

Max Fried leaves. Schwellenbach replaces him. Not exactly. They were both on the team last season. Metaphorically speaking though, they replaced one homegrown pitcher for another. Interestingly, Schwellenbach is arguably a better pitcher than last year, but in a different way. He has less strikeouts and more walks, but a lot more groundballs (54.5 GB%).

I don’t know what’s more amazing. How badly Erick Fedde has pitched so far or how the hell his ERA is almost entirely just one bad start. He has been working on a tight rope this season, and I guess the Cardinals are lucky his ERA isn’t worse. Those starts are banked in, so hopefully he actually starts pitching well before it catches up with him.

Tuesday – 6:15 PM

Andre Pallante (3.22 ERA/4.37 FIP/3.40 xFIP) vs. Spencer Strider (3.60 ERA/4.82 FIP/4.55 xFIP)

Strider has only made one start this year and it was okay, but just about everything was hit in the air and he didn’t strike out as much as a typical Strider start. So we may not be getting classic Strider. He’s still in the adjusting to life after Tommy John phase, which can be a bit of a rough going for some pitchers in their first year back. Or that was a slight hiccup, and Strider absolutely dominates.

This might be a good lineup for Pallante. The Braves lineup features four lefties and a switch hitter. Albies is a significantly worse hitter against right-handed pitchers in his career. Though with the exception of Nick Allen, every right-handed batter he faces is a tough one.

Wednesday – 11:15 AM

Miles Mikolas (7.64 ERA/2.97 FIP/5.11 xFIP) vs. Bryce Elder (7.20 ERA/7.02 FIP/4.34 xFIP)

Oh Mikolas is the closer of this series? Okay yeah Braves it is a very, very bad sign for your season if you don’t win this series. There’s a moment in a season when you’re supposed to be good team turns out bad where you have an Oh Sh*t moment. If you already haven’t had that moment, this series would probably do that to Braves fans. God help them if the Cardinals actually sweep.

Elder is weirdly a heavy groundball pitcher who isn’t striking anyone out. As you can see, keeping the ball on the ground is very much not helping him keep the ball out of the stands. He has allowed 5 homers in 3 games. He’s made three starts and none of them have been particularly good. Your move Cardinals!