Atlanta, GA
Atlanta's key to victory down the stretch: Touchdowns, touchdowns, touchdowns
Underscoring the importance of ending drives with touchdowns is the fact that the Falcons have 113 offensive drives this season, the fourth fewest in the NFL. Despite having a low number of possessions and struggling to score touchdowns over the last two games, Atlanta still ranks 12th in both points per drive (2.10) and touchdown percentage (22.1%). It’s not time to hit the panic button, but it’s clear the offense needs to find a way to score touchdowns to get back on track.
Again, it’s not exactly the most advanced statistical analysis to say a team needs to score touchdowns to win. In Atlanta’s case though, the difference in success is clear. The Falcons are a better overall team when scoring more points. In wins, or games when they’ve scored more than 20 points, the Falcons have averaged 2.84 points per drive and scored touchdowns on 29.5% of drives. In those games, Atlanta is also converting 55% of its red zone possessions into touchdowns. In losses, those numbers fall to 1.23 points per drive, 13.5% of drives end in touchdowns and red zone efficiency drops to 50%.
Unsurprisingly, the Falcons also average more plays per drive (6.13 to 5.88), a higher down-set conversion rate (77.4% to 69.1%) and fewer three-and-outs (9.8% to 17.3%) in wins versus losses.
There are clear differences in the numbers when comparing wins to losses, which again, it’s not surprising to say the offense has played better in wins than it has in losses, but the key difference is points. With the exception of losses to Seattle and Denver, Atlanta’s other three losses have come by one score or less.
For Atlanta, this is what it means to play complementary football. The defense has played well enough to win when the offense is scoring. When the offense struggles to score it puts more pressure on the defense and makes each offensive possession more critical.
Scoring, particularly scoring touchdowns, also allows the offense to stay within its game script, as mentioned above. It allows for more opportunities in the run game for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, it enables Zac Robinson to call more play-action passes and helps keep the opposing defense honest, giving the offensive line an edge when it comes to keeping Kirk Cousins clean in the pocket.
If you will allow me to put my armchair meteorologist hat on, I read an article somewhere about how this heat dome that’s been causing temperatures to skyrocket in recent days has been collapsing since Thursday. As such, that’s been causing enough of a disruption in the atmosphere to where thunderstorms are even more likely to pop up than usual.
So with that being said, it’s not particularly surprising that the weather is a bit spotty over Truist Park in Cobb County and as of right now, the tarp is reportedly on the field and has been since around noon.
While the starting pitchers did both continue their warmups as if the game would start on time, the forecast worsened a bit and now Mark Bowman is reporting that a delay is possible.
We’ll have more updates as they come in, so stay tuned.
[UPDATE 1:30 p.m. ET]: Assuming there’s no more atmospheric instability, the game will begin at 2:15 p.m. ET. Lock in, folks!
ATHENS, Ga. (July 4, 2026) – Atlanta United 2 earned a 1-0 win against Toronto FC II on Saturday at Turner Soccer Complex in Athens. Daniel Chica scored the only goal of the match as Atlanta maintained its fourth clean sheet of the season.
The first big chance of the match came from Atlanta in the 23rd minute. Cameron Dunbar, running across the top of the 18-yard box, picked out Arif Kovac in space to his left. Kovac, taking a touch to draw defenders to him, waited briefly before slipping Dominik Chong Qui in behind the defense on the left side of the box. Chong Qui nearly scored with a first-time shot on his left foot, but a deflection from a Toronto defender took the ball just inches wide of the far post.
In the 34th minute, Atlanta grabbed the opening goal. Chong Qui, taking a throw in from the right side, launched the ball into the Toronto box and found the head of Matthew Senanou. With a glancing flick off his head, Senanou guided the ball centrally, where Chica reacted before his markers to jump up and connect with a header, looping the ball into the bottom-right corner of the net.
Atlanta nearly added a second just before the half. In the 40th minute, Dunbar pounced on a Toronto turnover in the Atlanta half and broke through the defense. Carrying the ball down the Toronto half and into the box by himself, Dunbar wrapped a left-footed shot toward goal, but goalkeeper Adisa De Rosario was able to get down quickly and block the shot. Despite the save, the rebound spilled only as far as Kovac, who dropped a defender and De Rosario with a fake shot, but his ensuing effort was deflected out of play by center back Stefan Kapor.
It was a quiet second half, with Atlanta content to pass the ball around and maintain possession as it attempted to see out its lead. However, Toronto nearly equalized in the 78th minute. Striker Jahmarie Nolan, picking the ball up on the left side of the box, lofted a cross to the back post of the Atlanta goal toward fellow striker Dekwon Barrow. Rising up just inches from goal, Barrow connected with a header, but Jonathan Ransom quickly reacted to palm the effort off the goal line with his right hand. The chance was still alive as Kapor attempted to tap in the rebound, but Ransom, who was on the ground, extended his body to come away with a double save, sealing the three points.
Atlanta United 2 (8-5-3, 27 points) returns to action Saturday, July 11, when it takes on Inter Miami CF II at Turner Soccer Complex (7 p.m. ET, MLSNEXTPro.com, OneFootball App, Soccer Down Here).
The Braves are exiting a June that was absolutely miserable, but they finally hit a handful of homers on Friday night, hosting the Mets. They’ve got another favorable matchup here, with Chris Sale on the mound and facing the imminently hittable Sean Manaea for New York. We’ve got a national TV matchup on the 250th anniversary of this great country’s founding. The Braves have lived up to expectations, despite their horrid June, but FOX will be a bit disappointed in the Mets, relative to what they expected before the season when this matchup was scheduled.
Chris Sale has been brilliant of late, and really all year, but the struggles of Atlanta’s offense have prevented the team from capitalizing on that in the form of wins since May. One would think that this would be a game that the Braves could put some runs up against Manaea at home, perhaps building on the power they showed Friday, but this is the type of game they have frequently been losing lately. Sale may figure out a way to score a run off the pitching mound out of pure fury if he doesn’t get any run support today.
Manaea has been ever so slightly above average in most things other than ERA this year, getting the opener treatment frequently and starting only 4 games. His elite extension props up a pretty uninspiring arsenal of primarily a four-seamer, sinker, and sweeper, with a cutter and changeup sprinkled in. His four-seamer and sinker have a lot of arm-side run, while the rest of his pitches have quite average movement with well-below-average velocity. He’s perhaps been getting some HR/FB rate luck this season, so hopefully he gets some regression in favor of Atlanta’s bats.
Game Date/Time: Saturday, July 4, 8:08 p.m. ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
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