Analyzing the Braves’ Hot Start to the Season

The Atlanta Braves have been the best team in baseball, and it’s not even close. The club is off to a 25-11 start with 8 1/2 game lead over second place. It’s been speculated year after year that the Braves were finally due for a breakout, though they’ve never met those expectations until now.

A Miraculous Championship Moment

Atlanta won the World Series just five years ago. You wouldn’t think it with how the club has played in the years since, but this team went on a miracle-run in 2021. The Braves only won 88 games in the regular season, but it was enough to win a middling National League East.

Ronald Acuña Jr. posted his best season since his 2018 Rookie of the Year campaign with a .283/.394/.596 slash line and 24 home runs. Freddie Freeman batted .300 with 31 longballs on the year. Even Austin Riley swatted 33 balls out of the yard. It was a stacked crew. The fact they only won 88 games is ridiculous in and of itself.

Atlanta bested the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS (3-1) before defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers (4-2) to make it to the World Series against the Houston Astros. This was a ridiculously good Astros club. Houston won 95 games to claim the top spot in the American League West. One of the major pieces of that club was their stellar starting rotation. Made up of Luis Garcia, Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy and Framber Valdez, it was a beautiful thing to see the Braves defeat them in six games.

With key homers in the postseason from Jorge Soler (World Series MVP) and Eddie Rosario (NLCS MVP), the Braves eked their way to a World Series championship. They are the club that proves that getting hot at the right time is what matters most in a postseason run.

The Moment Passes, Falling Short Each Year Since

Despite making the postseason three consecutive years after 2021, the Braves didn’t make it farther than the NLDS. Atlanta won 100-plus games in 2022 and 2023 but disappointed in the postseason, losing to the Philadelphia Phillies in both instances. They only won 89 games in 2024 but still managed to make the playoffs. Atlanta ended up getting swept in the NL Wild Card by the San Diego Padres.

But, in 2025, the Braves missed the postseason entirely. They finished fourth in the NL East with only 76 wins. It was a ridiculously poor season for an Atlanta team with much higher aspirations and expectations.

A lot of that was due to injuries and absences from the planned roster. Jurickson Profar served an 80-game suspension for PED usage. Acuña was sidelined with hamstring and Achilles injuries. Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep all missed significant time, forcing Atlanta to piece together their starting rotation.

But, beyond that, the offense struggled mightily. Despite having four players mash 20-plus homers (Matt Olson, Acuña, Marcell Ozuna and Michael Harris), they failed to actually win baseball games due to their middling starting rotation.

Heading into 2026, the problem for Atlanta was that they didn’t make a single defining move this offseason to fix that. Their only real addition was bringing former Padres’ closer Robert Suarez to be the setup man for Raisel Iglesias. That has mostly fixed the Braves’ bullpen problems, alongside their myriad injuries not being a major issue thus far.

More than that, starting left fielder Profar is now serving a full season suspension after testing positive for PEDs yet again. Adding insult to injury (literally), a preseason injury to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim put a damper on Atlanta’s hopes for their 2026 offense.

Outpacing Expectations, Holding onto Top Spot

The Braves are on track to win 112 games. If they manage to accomplish that, it would be the most games Atlanta has ever won in franchise history. That’s due, in large part, to an all-around effort from the club.

The Pitching Finally Looks as Dominant as Billed

Across MLB, the Braves’ pitching staff ranks second in opponent batting average (.216), third in ERA (3.25) and fourth in WHIP (1.16) and runs allowed (129). The only rotation in baseball that has been better is the Dodgers. Chris Sale’s return to form has been a wonderful development for the club (2.14 ERA, 42.0 IP). Reynaldo López has pitched well (though not incredibly) with a 3.28 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. But the real story has been Bryce Elder’s breakout. The righty leads the club with a 1.88 ERA across his first seven starts.

Yes, the departure of Spencer Schwellenbach for most of the season hurts. But Spencer Strider is back (although off to a rough start after giving up three runs in just as many innings (3.1 IP). This rotation has been, and looks like it will continue to be lethal.

An Offense That Won’t Quit

The craziest part? The rotation isn’t even the best part of Atlanta’s season. The offense is. The Braves rank first in every major category except for on-base percentage with a .275/.341/.468 slash line and an .809 OPS. They’re second in MLB in home runs with 54. It’s hard to argue with numbers like that.

That offense has been buoyed by incredible performance after incredible performance. A resurgent Olson is batting .300 with 12 home runs and a 1.047 OPS. Drake Baldwin is showing zero signs of a sophomore slump, batting .313/.392/.531 as the club’s primary backstop. Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II are finally breaking out alongside the emergence of Dominic Smith as an offensive threat. Acuña’s been slumping, that’s true, but it hasn’t even mattered with how much every other player has contributed.

There’s still questions of depth should injuries plague this club like they did in the past. The true test will be in the second half of the season. Can this Braves club make it through the dog days of the summer? Maybe. It would be great to watch this Atlanta team finally meet — and even exceed — the expectations set for them. Only time will tell.