Arkansas
Murray State vs. Arkansas – Little Rock Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 12-18-2023
The Murray State Racers will pay a visit to the Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans on Monday at Jack Stephens Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Murray State (3-7 SU, 3-6 ATS, and 6-3 O/U) lost 61-55 to SE Louisiana in its last game. The Racers have lost four straight games.
Arkansas-Little Rock (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, and 8-3 O/U) beat UTSA 93-84 in its last game. The Trojans have won four of their last six overall.
The Trojans are 1.5-point spread favorites and the game total is 152 points.
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Murray State isn’t getting it done defensively
Murray State is led by senior guard Rob Perry, who averages 15.3 points and 4.9 rebounds per game. A few other Racers to watch are junior guard JaCobi Wood (13.1 PPG and 4.3 APG), junior guard Brian Moore Jr. (11.8 PPG), and senior guard Quincy Anderson (9.7 PPG).
The Racers average 72.4 points (245th) on 44.7 percent shooting (190th), including 33.0 percent from long range (208th). They convert 70.4 percent of their free throws (203rd) and average 30.4 rebounds per game (292nd). MSU’s opponents score 71.3 points per game (192nd) and shoot 46.0 percent (317th), including 33.3 percent from deep (216th), with 29.7 rebounds per game (94th).
KenPom rates Murray State 178th nationally. The Racers rank 80th in offensive efficiency, 316th in defensive efficiency, and 337th in tempo (schedule-adjusted).
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The Trojans are a high-tempo squad
Arkansas-Little Rock is led by senior guard Khalen Robinson, who averages 19.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game. A few other Trojans to watch are senior guard Jamir Chaplin (16.6 PPG and 7.5 RPG), senior forward DeAntonio Gordon (13.9 PPG and 5.6 RPG), and senior guard Cougar Downing (11.2 PPG).
The Trojans score 80.5 points per game (70th) on 44.6 percent shooting (193rd), including 33.0 percent from deep (207th). They convert 73.0 percent of their free throws (109th) and average 31.4 rebounds per game (257th). Little Rock’s opponents score 80.6 points per game (345th) and shoot 45.6 percent (306th), including 34.1 percent from long range (258th), with 33.5 rebounds per game (261st).
KenPom rates Arkansas-Little Rock 244th nationally. The Trojans rank 137th in offensive efficiency, 331st in defensive efficiency, and 77th in tempo (schedule-adjusted).
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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Arkansas-Little Rock is in for a challenge on Monday against Murray State. The Racers are not off to a great start this season, but they certainly have been tested. Per KenPom, they have faced an average defense ranked 77th nationally, but they’ll get a break tomorrow against the Trojans, who rank 331st in defensive efficiency. Little Rock is easy to score on at the rim, where its opponents shoot 65.1 percent. When the Trojans don’t get a block at the rim, their opponents shoot 72.1 percent. 38 percent of the Racers’ shots come at the basket, where they shoot 59 percent. Their opponents have also fared pretty well from three-point range (34.1%).
While I expect this to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth game, I’m comfortable predicting a Racers moneyline victory. In a battle between two sub-par defenses, I’m betting on the better offense!
Prediction: Racers ML
Full-Game Total Pick
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The Racers rank 80th in offensive efficiency despite facing an average defense ranked 77th. They should find it easier to score against the Trojans’ inferior interior defense and below-average perimeter defense. With five players capable of scoring double-digit points each game, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Racers exceed the 80-point mark against the Trojans (345th in opponent PPG).
Little Rock will also have success against the Racers’ defense (316th in defensive efficiency). The Trojans feature five players averaging double-digit points and another player averaging just under nine points. Second-leading scorer Jamir Chaplin is a sharpshooter, too (60.4 FG% and 48.3 3PT%). Little Rock is much higher-tempo than the Racers, averaging 6.5 more possessions per 40 minutes, which should lead to a faster pace of play.
Bet on the over!
Prediction: Over 152