Arkansas
Mississippi St vs. Arkansas Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 10-21-2023
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The Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to Fayetteville, Arkansas on Saturday to take on the Razorbacks in SEC action. The Bulldogs are 3-3 on the season and have lost all three games in conference play thus far. The Razorbacks come into this contest at just 2-5 on the season, have lost five straight games, and are winless in the SEC. The opening kick on Saturday is scheduled for 12:00 PM EST.
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Bulldogs Lack Bite
The Mississippi State Bulldogs were only too happy to step away from SEC play two weeks ago to take on Western Michigan in a non-conference matchup. Mississippi State jumped out to a 10-0 lead after the first quarter and rolled to a 41-28 victory to end a three-game losing streak. The Bulldogs now return to action after a week off and jump back into SEC play.
“The guys aren’t satisfied. We’ll utilize this bye week to highlight the ways we need to improve. We’re facing a lot of good teams in the second half and it’s time to make our run. We have a chance to get freshened up, really evaluate what we’re doing wrong on both sides of the ball.” Mississippi State head coach Zach Arnett said after the win on October 7th.
Quarterback Will Rogers finished 16-of-22 for 189 yards and two touchdowns before giving way to backup Mike Wright after getting banged up in the second half. Wright went 7-of-10 for 57 yards in relief of Rogers and added a rushing touchdown. Overall, the Bulldogs had 440 yards of total offense including 194 yards rushing. The Bulldogs lost one fumble on the day for their only turnover.
Defensively, Mississippi State allowed 413 yards of total offense including nearly 300 yards through the air. The Bulldogs had five tackles for loss in the game including two sacks. They were able to force one turnover on a Shawn Preston Jr. interception.
Mississippi State comes into this SEC matchup with the 92nd-ranked offense in the nation. The Bulldogs are 96th in rushing and 76th in passing. They are just 82nd in the country in red zone offense as well. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bulldogs are ranked just 110th in total defense. They are 64th against the run and a dismal 122nd against the pass. The Bulldogs have struggled to get off the field this season on third down with the 116th-ranked third down defense in the nation. Mississippi State is 40th in the country in sacks. They are just 119th in red zone defense.
Mississippi State is ranked 57th in the country in turnover differential this season. The Bulldogs haven’t hurt themselves iwth penalties, ranking 47th in the nation in penalties per game.
Injury Report: WR J. Robinson (undisclosed), QB W. Rogers (arm), RB J. Pittman (undisclosed), TE R. Goede (foot), RB J. Marks (leg), and K J. Ferrie (foot) are questionable. DL K. Dinkins (undisclosed), and DL T. Williams (undisclosed) are out.
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Optimism in Fayettville
The Arkansas Razorbacks lost their fifth straight game last Saturday but can take comfort in the team’s effort in battling Alabama to the very end. The Razorbacks fell behind 20-6 at half to the 11th-ranked Crimson Tide but bounced back to close the deficit to three in the final quarter on a touchdown and two-point conversion. The improved play of the Razorbacks’ offense gives them hope down the stretch. Arkansas is now 2-5 on the season and 0-3 in SEC play.
“Coming into this venue, we knew it would be a tough task for us, but we wanted to be in the fourth quarter with an opportunity to win and that’s what we were,” Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman said. “Congratulations to Alabama. I’m really proud of our football team, and I hate it that we couldn’t come away with a win. But I’m proud of our effort, I’m proud of our coaches, I’m proud of our players.”
The Razorbacks were led by quarterback KJ Jefferson who went 14-of-24 for 150 yards and two touchdowns while scrambling in and out of trouble from a relentless Alabama pass rush. Jefferson also ran for 64 yards on 14 carries in the game. Jefferson looked more like the quarterback that has terrorized the SEC in previous seasons on Saturday. Overall, Arkansas generated just 250 yards of total offense against the ‘Bama defense but Jefferson kept several drives alive with both his arm and his legs.
Defensively, the Razorbacks pressured Alabama all day long. They allowed 415 yards of total offense in the game but did generate five sacks in the game in total. Landon Jackson led the way with 11 tackles including 3.5 sacks in the contest.
Arkansas has to hope that the team’s spirited effort on the road against a formidable Alabama team will carry over this week at home against Mississippi State. The Razorbacks head into this game with just the 115th-ranked offense in the country. The Razorbacks are 108th on the ground and 99th through the air. The play of Jefferson against Alabama has to be encouraging and the big quarterback can certainly take over a game on his own. With the dual-threat Jefferson under center, it isn’t surprising that Arkansas is ranked 13th in the country in red zone offense. Defensively, Arkansas is ranked 43rd in the country in total defense. They are 70th against the run and 43rd against the pass. The Razorbacks can get after the quarterback, ranked 17th in the nation in sacks. Arkansas is just 101st in the nation in red zone defense. With their high-level pass rush, the Razorbacks are ranked 17th in the nation in preventing third-down conversions.
Arkansas is ranked 74th in the country in turnover differential this season. They have struggled with penalties, however, ranking just 94th in the nation in penalties per game.
Injury Report: DB D. McGlothern (concussion), DB J. Braxton (undisclosed), P D. Bale (undisclosed), LB C. Paul (head), and DL C. Ball (undisclosed) are all questionable. RB R. Sanders (undisclosed) is out.
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Jefferson’s performance against the Crimson Tide has to have Arkansas backers feeling good about the rest of the season. Jefferson’s play dictates how well the Razorbacks play on offense. His ability to escape pressure on Saturday looked more like the quarterback that terrorized opposing defenses in the previous two seasons. Jefferson should have even more luck on Saturday against one of the worst defenses in the country Mississippi State. Jefferson missed this matchup last season and the Bulldogs rolled to a 40-17 victory. Two years ago, Jefferson led the Razorbacks to victory over the Bulldogs when healthy. Jefferson may end up doing more damage with his arm on Saturday against a Mississippi State defense that ranks a dismal 122nd in the country against the pass. Mississippi State’s offense does better through the air but will be facing an Arkansas pass rush that is 17th in the country in sacking the quarterback. I expect another spirited effort from the Razorbacks on Saturday and an end to the team’s five-game losing streak.
Take Arkansas -5.5
Prediction: Arkansas -5.5
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The betting money has gone to the under early in the week and dropped this total by two points. Jump on the over at this point. Each of the last two meetings between these two teams has gone over this total and that includes one game with Arkansas’ Jefferson at quarterback and one without him. Jefferson should have his way with the Bulldogs’ mediocre defense and we might see highlight reel numbers through the air from the big quarterback. Mississippi State should have the services of quarterback Rogers in this one with a week to recover from a sore arm. Rogers is the better passer of the two Bulldogs’ quarterbacks and has a history of success against the Arkansas’ defense. I expect the Bulldogs to be playing catch-up throughout the game and that means a lot of passing. That should result in additional points and a faster-paced game.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 48.5