HawgBeat – Score Predictions: Arkansas vs Mississippi State

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The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-5, 0-4 SEC) are set to play the Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-3, 0-3 SEC) at 11:00 a.m. CT Saturday at Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville.

Last year’s matchup between the teams resulted in the Razorbacks losing 40-17 in Starkville with starting quarterback KJ Jefferson injured. Backups Cade Fortin and Malik Hornsby saw action on a day that the Hogs never really had a chance against the passing attack of Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers, who threw for 406 yards and three scores.

Arkansas is a 6.5-point favorite over the Bulldogs (BetSaracen). The last time the these two teams faced each other in Fayetteville, the Razorbacks secured a 31-28 win over Mississippi State to improve to 6-3 overall during the 2021 season.

Here is how the HawgBeat staff is predicting Saturday’s game, which will be broadcast on ESPN.

I keep finding myself wanting to pick Arkansas to win big. After five straight losses and four straight road games, this team could really use a game where it just dominates the opponent.

But then I think about Mississippi State coming off a bye week. Prior to that, the Bulldogs played Western Michigan. Although they were banged up a bit in that game, it was an inferior opponent while the Hogs were battling at Ole Miss that week.

Arkansas is the more talented team and it is better in most meaningful statistical categories. The Hogs might have a worse overall record, but they are the better squad. I just still think Mississippi State is going to hang around and make it interesting.

Arkansas 27, Mississippi State 23

It’s put up or shut up time for Sam Pittman and the Razorbacks. After losing five straight games — four of which were very winnable — this matchup against Mississippi State is as must-win as it gets for Arkansas.

Fortunately for the Hogs, the Bulldogs are not very good. Zach Arnett’s team ranks 112th in the country in passing yards allowed per game (263.5) and 88th in total defense (395.2). Arkansas hasn’t looked good on the offensive side of the ball this season, but they should have the horses to take advantage of a poor Mississippi State defense.

On the other side, it’s possible that the Bulldogs will be without starting quarterback Will Rogers. Mike Wright is a solid backup, but doesn’t have the passing ability to exploit what has been a surprisingly-good Arkansas defense this season.

I told myself I wasn’t going to pick Arkansas to defeat a Power 5 opponent until they actually did it. But playing at home for the first time since a Week 3 matchup against BYU should have the Hogs motivated to compete, and I think KJ Jefferson is in store for a big day.

Arkansas 31, Mississippi State 21

The Hogs need this one badly. On top of a five-game losing streak, Arkansas hosts a Mississippi State team that has had a poor season so far under first-year head coach Zach Arnett.

The big question I have for this team is can the offense consistently produce what we saw in the last part of last week’s loss to Alabama? If they can, the second half of the schedule could look night-and-day different from the first.

Ultimately, I like the Hogs in this one, but it’s not going to be easy. Fans will have to swear out a close win. I’ll go a step further and say Cam Little drills a game-winner.

Arkansas 24, Mississippi State 21

Arkansas finally returns home to Fayetteville after a brutal stretch on the road without a single win. Staying close hasn’t been enough to satisfy the fanbase. Mississippi State is not a good football team and has some injury issues of its own going into Saturday.

Sam Pittman’s seat is already warm, but a loss could have it scorching. Arkansas should take care of business and get back in the winning column for the first time in a long time, potentially will more up-tempo offense, as well.

Arkansas 31, Mississippi State 17

Arkansas is favored to win a game for the first time since BYU. I want to believe its first home game since then will be packed with rabid fans with it being homecoming weekend. The problem is, this is an 11 a.m. kickoff with a team looking for its first conference win in late October.

I want to believe the offense is getting better, but it’s not. They have a chance to get some chunk plays Saturday still being one dimensional. I expect the tight ends to get more involved in the game plan. Var’keyes Gumms and Ty Washington are mismatches for defenders.

The rest of the team picks up the slack and the Hogs win.

Arkansas 30, Mississippi State 21

Mason Choate: 6-1 overall, 4-3 ATS

Riley McFerran: 6-1 overall, 2-5 ATS

Daniel Fair: 5-2 overall, 3-4 ATS

Jackson Collier: 5-2 overall, 3-4 ATS

Kevin Bohannon: 5-2 overall, 2-5 ATS

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