Florida football vs. Arkansas: Scouting report, prediction

Florida football coach Billy Napier doesn’t sense any apathy or gloom from players heading into the final month of the 2023 season.

The banged-up Florida Gators (5-3, 3-2 SEC) will host Arkansas (2-6, 0-5 SEC) on Saturday (noon, ESPN2) looking to rebound from a 43-20 loss to No. 1 Georgia in Jacksonville. The loss showed the gap between UF and the elite programs in college football remains significant as Napier continues year two of a Florida rebuild.

Napier said after shaking the rust off on Tuesday, the energy in practice picked up on Wednesday.

“I do think they’re going about it the right way,” Napier said. “I believe in this group. I like the makeup of this group. I think we’re still searching for consistency; we’re still trying to put the best performances together from all parts of our team. Ultimately, that’s the goal.”

Tough injury blow: Florida football LB Shemar James out for season after undergoing knee surgery

Change of scenery: Former Florida football OL to start for Arkansas vs. Gators on Saturday

It should be a charged atmosphere at The Swamp, with a sellout announced and UF wearing black jerseys for the first time in school history to commemorate veterans and first responders as part of its “Salute to Service” week. Florida is 4-0 at home this season, which includes a 29-16 upset of No. 19 Tennessee on Sept. 16.

Here are five storylines to watch for the UF game against Arkansas:

How will UF football’s run defense fare without standout LB Shemar James

The Gators have struggled stopping the run of late, allowing 150 or more yards on the ground in three of their last four games. On Wednesday, Florida announced that leading tackler Shemar James (55 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss) will be out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a dislocated kneecap. Arkansas features mobile quarterback K.J. Jefferson and preseason All-SEC running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders, who practiced this week and could be back after missing multiple games this season due to injury.

For the season, Florida is allowing 130,6 yards rushing per game on 4.3 yards per carry. The Gators can’t afford too many missed tackles on Saturday. “Any successful defense really relies on tackling so tackling has always been a big part of our practice plan, tackling circuits, doing this, finishing on the ball, getting the ball out,” Florida linebacker Scooby Williams said. “I feel like it’s a really key emphasis this weekend for the rest of the season.”

Can RB Trevor Etienne provide a spark to UF football’s dormant run game?

Etienne has averaged just 45.5 yards on only 16 carries over the last two games since coming back from a shoulder injury that sidelined him in the Vanderbilt game, But Napier said he’s had a good week of practice and his workload could increase against the Razorbacks.

“He’s practiced fast,” Napier said. “He’s out of the non-contact, we modified him there for several weeks and ultimately he’s back healthy, his shoulder’s good. I think he’s in a good place and we certainly need to get him going.”

For the season, Florida ranks 10th in the SEC in rushing offense, averaging 137.3 yards per game on 4.1 yards per game.

How will the Florida Gators handle containing dual threat, Arkansas QB K.J. Jefferson?

At 6-foot-3, 247 pounds, Jefferson is a dual threat quarterback who is difficult to tackle. He’s passed for 1,547 yards with 14 TDs to 7 interceptions on the season, while rushing for 200 yards and 1 TD. “Ultimately, it’s tough to get him on the ground as a runner and when you do try to finish on him, he’s a challenge in that regard and he is an athlete, there’s no question about it,” Napier said. “He’s developed as a passer and he’s got a good group of skill around him and when you start talking about defending Arkansas, it starts with him, and his mobility is a part of the equation.”

Will Arkansas unveil some new wrinkles on offense under new offensive coordinator Kenny Guiton?

Guiton was promoted from wide receivers coach during the bye week after former Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos was fired following a 7-3 loss to Mississippi State on Oct. 21. Arkansas coach Sam Pittman said about 30 percent from the Arkansas offense has been scrapped since Guiton took over.

That leaves new plays for UF’s defense to prepare for. Guiton will draw from some the experience he gained last season working under former Arkansas offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. “They have a number of brand-new players and they have no recall of the previous system,” Napier said. “Now, the quarterback, obviously, played in the system. We’ll get a combination of both. I think Sam’s a good coach, Ken’s a good coach and they’ll do a good job … We’ll have the players ready. We talked about that process a while back. That’ll be part of the story on Saturday for sure.”

Can UF football’s passing offense remain efficient under quarterback Graham Mertz?

Mertz has been effective throughout the season for the Gators. leading an offense that ranks sixth in the SEC in passing offense at 274.1 yards per game. Mertz spread the ball to eight different receivers against Georgia and is gaining more trust in young receivers such as true freshman wide receiver Eugene Wilson, redshirt freshman tight end Arlis Boardingham and redshirt freshman tight end Hayden Hansen. As always, the key remains keeping Mertz clean in the pocket. He was sacked four times and lost a fumble last week against Georgia. For the season, Mertz has been sacked 23 times.

Prediction

Florida 27, Arkansas 20: Arkansas has played everyone tough this season, and the Razorbacks will be motivated to try to pick up their first win at The Swamp in school history. The offensive coordinator change could either spark or hinder Arkansas, but Florida should have enough offensive firepower to hold off the pesky Razorbacks.