ESPN’s FPI predicts every game on Arkansas’ 2023 schedule

ESPN’s FPI is projecting the full results of the 2023 college football season, and the system has predicted every game on Arkansas’ schedule.

The Football Power Index projects the Razorbacks to go bowling for the third consecutive season under Sam Pittman. (The 2020 team accepted a Texas Bowl bid, but the game was canceled.)

A stretch of 4 key contests against preseason AP Top 25 teams away from home will likely define where Arkansas plays in the postseason. ESPN Analytics isn’t high on the Hogs in those games.

Arkansas is projected to start out 3-0. After the Razorbacks’ Sept. 16 game against BYU, though, the Hogs won’t play another home game until Oct. 21. The FPI does not favor the Razorbacks in any of the 4 games away from home, which includes the annual Southwest Classic rivalry tilt in Dallas.

On a positive note, ESPN’s simulation-based metric favors the Razorbacks in the final 3 regular-season games, all home contests. Here is Arkansas’ projected chance to win every game on the 2023 schedule, according to ESPN’s FPI:

• Sept. 2 vs. Western Carolina – 99% chance to win
• Sept. 9 vs. Kent State – 93.2%
• Sept. 16 vs. BYU – 76.6%
• Sept. 23 at LSU – 16.3%
• Sept. 30 vs. Texas A&M – 39.9% (Southwest Classic in Dallas)
• Oct. 7 at Ole Miss – 32.5%
• Oct. 14 at Alabama – 8.3%
• Oct. 21 vs. Mississippi State – 58.7%
• Nov. 4 at Florida – 36.3%
• Nov. 11 vs. Auburn – 64.5%
• Nov. 18 vs. FIU – 95.9%
• Nov. 24 vs. Missouri – 63.5%