In-state SWAC opponent Alabama A&M travels onto the Plains this weekend to open the season against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

While the Bulldogs aren’t nearly as fierce of a rival as the more well-known SEC squad with the same mascot, Alabama A&M did finish 2023 with a respectable 5-6 record.

As for the home team, Auburn went bowling last season after finishing the regular season slate 6-6. Unfortunately the Tigers played a tune on the world’s saddest violin in the Music City Bowl, losing in blowout fashion to Maryland to finish the year.

Hugh Freeze’s Tigers have a new-look heading into 2024, as the receiving core and secondary have undergone a new complete overhaul. While familiar faces still exist at the quarterback, running back, and linebacker positions, much of Auburn’s roster is going to look different this season.

Even with all the roster movement, Auburn comes into the opener as a near 7 touchdown favorite according to BetMGM. 

ESPN’s FPI doesn’t like the Bulldogs chances of pulling off an early-season miracle either, as the Football Power Index gives Auburn a 99% chance to claim victory on Saturday.

Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Alabama A&M has a higher chance of shocking the college football world than the experts believe? As we did last season, we’ll start by looking at the quarterbacks.

Auburn senior signal-caller enters his second season on the Plains after a turbulent first year in the Hugh Freeze offense. After starting off the season poorly, Payton Thorne had a superb stretch of play in early November against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas, totaling 753 all-purpose yards and 9 touchdowns over that span. Unfortunately the 22-year-old struggled against New Mexico State, Alabama, and Maryland to end his season, once against casting doubt over his status heading into 2024.

In total, the junior finished 2023 with 1,755 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He added 515 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground as well. Head coach Hugh Freeze has displayed confidence in his “QB1” throughout spring and summer camp, and Thorne will once again have the keys to the Tigers offense.

On the other side, Alabama A&M quarterback Cornelious Brown IV enters his sixth season of college football on his third team. Still with two years of eligibility remaining, the junior has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career, as he’s only attempted more than 30 passes twice in five years. While Brown IV has plenty of experience, including games against Vanderbilt and UNC, the clear edge in the quarterback matchup goes to Auburn’s Payton Thorne.

The Tigers have an even clearer edge in the skill position battle. Alabama A&M’s best player on the offensive side of the ball is easily running back Donovan Eaglin. In an interesting twist that has become more common by the season in the NIL and transfer portal era, the running back started his career with Payton Thorne at Michigan State before transferring to Alabama A&M in 2022. Since then, the 5-foot-11 bruiser has averaged a clean 5.3 yards-per-carry on his way to 1,568 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.

Unfortunately for Eaglin, Auburn’s Jarquez Hunter is the much better back. Auburn’s longest-tenured offensive starter, Hunter rushed for 909 yards and 7 scores a season ago to vault his all-time rushing total to 2,170 yards. He enters 2024 just over 500 yards short the top 10 all time rushing leaders in Auburn history. While it would take a magnificent campaign for Hunter to pass Ben Tate’s top 5 mark of 3,321 yards, a solid season from the senior could vault him past Tre Mason (2,979) for the No. 6 spot on the list.

The largest skill-gap may be on the pass catching side of things. Auburn offers one of the better receiving quartets in the SEC, with transfer receivers KeAndre Lambert-Smith (673 yards, 2023) and Robert Lewis (877 yards, 2023) joining five-star freshman Cam Coleman and 2023 receiving leader Rivaldo Fairweather (394 yards, 2023) as weapons for Payton Thorne.

In another unusual but increasingly common storyline, Lewis, who transferred from Georgia State this offseason, spent some time catching passes from Alabama A&M starting quarterback Cornelious Brown IV during their time as Panthers in 2021.

As for Brown IV’s weapons, Alabama A&M’s receiving core was mostly gutted by graduation and the transfer portal. The only returning players to accumulate over 100 yards a season ago are senior Jacolby Hewitt (516 yards, 2023) and junior Keenan Hambrick (386 yards, 2023).

Auburn has the clear edge on every aspect of the offensive side of the ball, including the offensive line which is simply bigger and more physically imposing than their SWAC counterparts.

The defensive side of things is much of the same. The Bulldogs do offer a pair of studs in the secondary in Emari Pait and Kaleb Dawson, but the Tigers duo of Keionte Scott and Kayin Lee still gets the edge due to their experience against more talented receivers.

The most glaring mismatch may be in the front seven, where Auburn holds one of the best linebacker duos in the country in Eugene Asante and Jalen McLeod. That duo, along with Tigers de-facto defensive line captain Keldric Faulk, combined for 11.5 sacks a season ago, which is more than half (20) of the sacks created by the entire Alabama A&M defense in 2023.

Throughout all the positional groupings, Auburn is simply better and more dominant on both sides of the ball. That’s not to say an upset can’t happen, but it’s just extremely unlikely.

Going into a game as 7 touchdown favorites may seem hefty, but the tale of the tape says the spread is just about on the mark. We’ll see if Alabama A&M can prove the doubters, and the tape, wrong when the two in-state opponents face off on Saturday at 6:30 PM CST.

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