Reseeding the men’s March Madness Sweet 16

So … how’s your bracket? Yeah, we perceive.

The primary two rounds have given us historic moments and thrilling wins. Bear in mind when Furman beat Virginia on a 3-pointer within the ultimate seconds on Thursday? We do not both. As a result of since then, Fairleigh Dickinson and Princeton manufactured extra consequential upsets that shortly stole Furman’s quarter-hour of fame.

Michigan State was aggressive however clearly flawed by Large Ten play. Nonetheless, it is Tom Izzo, so the Spartans are within the Candy 16 as soon as once more. Kansas and Purdue, each 1-seeds, are again dwelling. Huh?

Our try to reseed the Candy 16 is nearer to a rating system primarily based on our perception of the place these groups stand now, and the way far we consider they will go. The complete physique of labor issues, however the present state of a program is impactful, too. Simply ask Arkansas, which weathered an 8-11 stretch earlier than this match run.

Right here is our try to reseed the Candy 16:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Unique Seed: No. 1. Reseed: 1

Nate Oats’ squad seems to own a gear that even perhaps Houston — the one different remaining No. 1 seed within the NCAA match — may not be capable of attain. Within the 21-point win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi on Thursday, Brandon Miller (groin damage) went scoreless and performed simply 19 minutes, however the Crimson Tide nonetheless registered 132 factors per 100 possessions. Miller returned for Alabama’s 22-point win over Maryland within the second spherical with 19 factors, seven rebounds.

The Crimson Tide — third in adjusted defensive effectivity on KenPom — proved they will additionally play wonderful protection, too. The stability hooked up to this Alabama workforce is unequalled in school basketball proper now. Miller is a top-five NBA prospect on each respected mock draft board and leads a workforce able to offensive barrages and defensive shutdowns. It isn’t unimaginable that Alabama may stroll by its subsequent two opponents on its method to the Closing 4.

Up subsequent: vs. San Diego State (Friday, 6:30 p.m. ET, TBS)

2. Houston Cougars

Unique Seed: No. 1. Reseed: 1

Houston may not be one hundred pc however Jamal Shead (knee) and Marcus Sasser (groin) each contributed within the second-round win over Auburn on Saturday — reigniting the Cougars’ hopes of changing into the primary host college in Closing 4 historical past to really play within the Closing 4. Down 10 factors at halftime, Houston confirmed how harmful it may be when it’s (principally) wholesome because it outscored the Tigers 50-23 within the second half. Sasser fought by foul hassle however nonetheless managed to attain 22 factors in 31 minutes. Shead (10 factors) had his struggles however performed 34 minutes. Tramon Mark (26 factors) joined Sasser as the primary duo in Houston historical past to attain 20 factors or extra within the NCAA match since 1984.

It was a dominant, come-from-behind effort by a Cougars workforce that deserves all of the Closing 4 hype that appeared to subside when Sasser re-aggravated his groin damage in Thursday’s win over Northern Kentucky within the first spherical. Houston is again on its perch.

Up subsequent: vs. Miami (Friday, 7:15 p.m. ET, CBS)

3. UCLA Bruins

Unique Seed: No. 2. Reseed: 1

Towards the top of Saturday’s win over Northwestern, Mick Cronin hovered over David Singleton (9.1 PPG, 43% from the 3-point line) after the sharpshooter and starter suffered an ankle damage. At this level, the damage bug seems to be UCLA’s best risk. Jaylen Clark, the Pac-12 Defensive Participant of the Yr, has been out because the convention match; Adem Bona, a five-star recruit, returned after two video games out as a consequence of a shoulder damage to play in opposition to Northwestern.

But, Cronin’s workforce continues to beat these challenges. How? Jaime Jaquez Jr.(21.5 PPG, 17-for-28 contained in the arc, 40% from 3 within the NCAA match), the projected All-American, has been one of many prime gamers within the postseason to date. 5-star recruit Amari Bailey (15.5 PPG in two NCAA match video games) has emerged as a extra constant scoring risk. And Tyger Campbell has simply two turnovers in UCLA’s previous 4 video games. That is how.

Up subsequent: vs. TCU/Gonzaga (Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS)

4. Texas Longhorns

Unique Seed: No. 2. Reseed: 1

When Chris Beard was fired in January, Rodney Terry was broadly seen as a short lived resolution for a Texas opening that has been hooked up to a few of the greatest names in school basketball. Terry was simply the man till Texas discovered the subsequent man, proper?

Terry had different plans. The Longhorns’ run to the Candy 16 — their first since 2008 — ought to give him the within monitor on securing that job completely. This Texas workforce was seen as a possible Closing 4 workforce previous to the season. Terry has helped this program on the trail to achieve that ceiling, and he deserves credit score — and a contract — for that. Saturday’s victory over Penn State 71-66 on Saturday showcased the depth of this workforce. Timmy Allen’s protection on Jalen Pickett (5-for-13, 11 factors) restricted the All-American’s impression. Dylan Disu (28 factors, 10 rebounds) carried his workforce on offense. Over the previous month, Texas is 8-2 (together with two wins over Kansas). If the Longhorns play like this going ahead, they will have an opportunity to get to the Closing 4 for the primary time in 20 years.

Up subsequent: vs. Xavier (Friday, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS)

5. UConn Huskies

Unique Seed: No. 4. Reseed:2

By way of UConn’s first two video games, there have been a number of moments the place the digital camera has targeted on Adama Sanogo ready on the bench to run into the sport and wreak havoc. Sanogo has been essentially the most dominant power within the first weekend of the NCAA match. His numbers learn like they’re from an Xbox recreation: 28 factors (13-for-17), 13 rebounds and a block in opposition to Iona; 24 factors (11-for-16), 8 rebounds and a block in opposition to Saint Mary’s. Connecticut received its first two NCAA match video games by a margin of 39 factors mixed on account of these performances. The Huskies are additionally 22-for-47 from the 3-point line. They’re grabbing a variety of offensive rebounds and each Iona and Saint Mary’s registered simply 95 factors per 100 possessions in opposition to their defensive stress. Dan Hurley’s squad is enjoying some championship-level basketball proper now.

Up subsequent: vs. Arkansas (Thursday, 7:15 p.m. ET, CBS)

6. Tennessee Volunteers

Unique Seed: No. 4. Reseed: 2

Lengthy earlier than energy and conditioning applications in school basketball turned fashionable, Rick Barnes had dedicated to growing an unmatched degree of physicality inside his applications. Ranked first in adjusted defensive effectivity on KenPom, Tennessee’s brawn contributed to its 65-52 second-round win over Duke — which had received 10 video games in a row — and this system’s seventh journey to the Candy 16 since 2000. Duke, a top-10 offensive rebounding workforce in America, secured simply 21% of its second-chance alternatives in opposition to the Vols. And 6-foot-9, 236-pound Olivier Nkamhoua (27 factors) bullied the Blue Devils, particularly within the second half.

Turnovers had been a difficulty following Zakai Ziegler ‘s season-ending damage, however the Vols dedicated simply 9 in opposition to Duke. If this plodding, imposing, defensive juggernaut continues to play a prudent model of basketball, Barnes may attain the Elite Eight for the primary time because the 2007-08 season when he was at Texas.

Up subsequent: vs. FAU (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET, TBS)

7. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Unique Seed: No. 3. Reseed: 2

Throughout their 11-game profitable streak, the Bulldogs have received every recreation by a mean of 18.4 PPG. Whereas they do not have a Jalen Suggs, Chet Holmgren or one other projected lottery decide, their offensive ceiling permits them to separate themselves, even in tight video games. Down the stretch in opposition to a relentless TCU squad on Sunday, Gonzaga turned to Drew Timme and in addition performed aggressively across the rim to get free throw makes an attempt.

It labored, and now Gonzaga is again within the Candy 16 for the eighth yr in a row. That is an elite workforce that is getting higher on the proper time. It is also the worst Gonzaga protection in 16 years. That could possibly be an issue for a workforce with loads of offensive benefits and a difference-maker decided to get them to the third weekend.

Up subsequent: vs. UCLA (Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS)

8. Kansas State Wildcats

Unique Seed: No. 3. Reseed: 2

Jerome Tang believed Kansas State had a possibility to start an instantaneous turnaround final summer season, when he left Baylor — the place he was affiliate head coach and received a nationwide title with the Bears in 2021. He was proper. With Keyontae Johnson arriving from Florida and Markquis Nowell returning for one more run, he had a pair of anchors who charged this workforce’s first run to the Candy 16 since 2018.

Nowell specifically has been a thriller for opposing backcourts to date. His playmaking skill and success with pick-and-roll conditions make Kansas State a problem for any protection. He has additionally shot 43% from 3 within the NCAA match. Plus, the Wildcats disassembled the offensive rhythms of each Montana State and Kentucky, a pair of groups that dedicated turnovers on 23% of their possessions in opposition to them. Tang’s squad has a excessive degree of confidence getting into the Candy 16. It is simple to see why.

Up subsequent: vs. Michigan State (Thursday, 6:30 p.m. ET, TBS)

9. Xavier Musketeers

Unique Seed: No. 3. Reseed: 3

Timing issues. A workforce that has to take care of a significant damage simply previous to the beginning of the NCAA match — see: Kansas’ loss to Arkansas within the second spherical with Invoice Self sidelined for a number of video games following coronary heart surgical procedure — might need hassle adjusting in time to seek out itself once more. However Xavier misplaced Zach Freemantle (15.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG) to a season-ending foot damage Feb. 1. Whereas it was a devastating loss for this system, it occurred early sufficient for Sean Miller to reconfigure his lineups.

Jerome Hunter, Freemantle’s alternative within the beginning lineup, is averaging 19 PPG (14-for-21 contained in the arc) by two NCAA match video games. And a Xavier squad that has misplaced only one recreation since Feb. 21 (7-1) held Kennesaw State and Pitt to a mean of 94 factors per 100 possessions. However the Musketeers must outplay higher competitors to achieve the Closing 4.

Up subsequent: vs. Texas (Friday, 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS)

10. Creighton Bluejays

Unique Seed: No. 6. Reseed: 3

Picked to win the Large East previous to a turbulent begin this season, Creighton is showcasing the flexibility that has made the Bluejays an actual nationwide championship contender. Ryan Nembhard, brother of Indiana Pacers standout Andrew Nembhard, had 30 factors in opposition to Baylor as his workforce made 46% of its 3-point makes an attempt Sunday. On Friday, when the Bluejays completed 3-for-20 from past the arc of their win over NC State, Ryan Kalkbrenner, a 7-foot-1 star who has made 73% of his photographs contained in the arc, completed with 31 factors.

The Bluejays have a diversified offense that depends on measurement, stability and the new hand. After Creighton stumbled early within the season, it was simple to doubt its postseason aspirations. However the Bluejays are 14-4 of their previous 18 video games after reaching the Candy 16 for simply the second time since 1974.

Up subsequent: vs. Princeton (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, TBS)

11. Arkansas Razorbacks

Unique Seed: No. 8. Reseed: 3

From Dec. 28 to March 4, Arkansas went 8-11 and made simply 32% of its 3-point makes an attempt. Sure, the Razorbacks have three NBA prospects (Nick Smith Jr., Anthony Black and Ricky Council IV), however Eric Musselman struggled to show that expertise into wins on the time. Misplaced within the dialog, nonetheless, was Arkansas’ effort to grow to be a harder defensive workforce within the paint. Its opponents averaged simply 46% of their photographs contained in the arc (No. 22 within the nation) throughout these rocky months.

Why does that matter? In Arkansas’ NCAA match wins over Illinois and Kansas — resulting in Musselman’s third consecutive Candy 16 look at Arkansas — the Illini and the Jayhawks registered a 49% clip mixed contained in the arc. Illinois (55%) and Kansas (53%) fell under their respective norms in opposition to an Arkansas workforce that is extra critical about protection nowadays. That, plus the emergence of gamers like Davonte Davis (21 factors within the second half in opposition to Kansas), means the Razorbacks now appear to be a Closing 4 sleeper stuffed with vitality and braveness, and with an upset of a No. 1 seed on their résumé.

Up subsequent: vs. UConn (Thursday, 7:15 p.m. ET, CBS)

12. San Diego State Aztecs

Unique Seed: No. 5. Reseed: 3

Of their 75-52 win over Furman on Saturday, SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher neutralized the workforce (the Paladins have been 16-for-50 from the sector) that upset Virginia. That is been the norm for certainly one of America’s finest defensive groups. The Aztecs’ potential to advance to the Elite Eight and probably past facilities on their defensive prowess. Throughout its present six-game profitable streak, SDSU’s opponents have averaged simply 85 factors per 100 possessions. For context, Tennessee — ranked first in adjusted defensive effectivity on KenPom — held its SEC opponents to 92.6 factors per 100 possessions this season.

SDSU, which shoots 60.5% from contained in the arc, additionally received rolling on offense in opposition to Furman. If Matt Bradley (certainly one of 4 double-digit scorers Saturday) & Co. proceed to play protection at this degree and discover methods to get buckets, they will be a troublesome opponent to unravel.

Value noting? A Charleston-Furman path to the Candy 16 was the best within the subject.

Up subsequent: vs. Alabama (Friday, 6:30 p.m. ET, TBS)

13. Miami Hurricanes

Unique Seed: No. 5. Reseed: 4

Miami acquired a major increase with the provision of Norchad Omier, who was questionable for the NCAA match after struggling an ankle damage within the ACC match. However he was cleared and now has 19 factors and 31 rebounds by two NCAA match video games.

Isaiah Wong (27 factors in opposition to the Hoosiers) continues to gasoline a Miami workforce that reached the Candy 16 for the fifth time at school historical past with its win over Indiana on Sunday. The final ACC workforce within the subject pushed the tempo in opposition to Drake and IU and can try to do the identical within the Candy 16. Miami’s protection has been a priority all season (108th in adjusted defensive effectivity on KenPom) nevertheless it has additionally performed a few of the finest protection of this season over the previous couple days. If this turns into the norm, a squad that boasts certainly one of America’s most potent offensive assaults (37% from the 3-point line, 54% contained in the arc) can have an opportunity to achieve the Elite Eight for the second consecutive season.

Up subsequent: vs. Houston (Friday, 7:15 p.m. ET, CBS)

14. Michigan State Spartans

Unique Seed: No. 7. Reseed: 4

One of many themes of any NCAA match that entails Tom Izzo is that you simply most likely should not guess in opposition to Tom Izzo. Most did in his workforce’s matchup in opposition to Marquette, the Large East common season and match champion, on Sunday. That was a mistake. Now, Izzo is on his method to his fifteenth Candy 16 regardless of main a Michigan State squad that lacks the NBA expertise that has outlined a few of his finest groups.

Tyson Walker has refused to yield on this NCAA match. He hasn’t dedicated a turnover by two video games, and he has averaged 17.5 PPG. That is the form of management Izzo trusted in previous NCAA tournaments. Assume Mateen Cleaves, Kalin Lucas, Denzel Valentine and different sturdy guards who helped the Spartans blossom within the dance. The Spartans have related on 55% of their photographs contained in the arc on this yr’s, and restricted each USC and Marquette’s second-chance alternatives. Izzo is outcoaching his friends proper now and his workforce is outworking theirs, too.

Up subsequent: vs. Kansas State (Thursday, 6:30 p.m. ET, TBS)

15. Princeton Tigers

Unique Seed: No. 15. Reseed: 4

After struggling losses to groups like Delaware (234th on KenPom), Brown (173rd) and Dartmouth (260th), there have been no indications the Ivy League regular-season and match champions would one way or the other make a run to their first Candy 16 look since 1967. However the Princeton Tigers have illustrated the magic of March as a 15-seed that beat 2-seed Arizona and 7-seed Missouri to realize the feat.

Can they hold the momentum going? Mitch Henderson’s skill to regulate the tempo within the NCAA match has labored to date. Regardless of Arizona main by double digits late on Thursday, the Wildcats could not prolong the lead as a result of Princeton performed at such a methodical tempo. Missouri had the same subject — it tried to flee a double-digit gap within the second half however could not get the additional possessions wanted to chop into Princeton’s lead Saturday. Princeton has averaged simply 8.8 turnovers per recreation throughout its six-game profitable streak, too. This disciplined workforce remains to be a risk for one more upset.

Up subsequent: vs. Creighton (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, TBS)

16. Florida Atlantic Owls

Unique Seed: No. 9. Reseed: 4

Typically the NCAA match is concerning the fortuitous developments that pave the way in which to the second weekend. That occurred for FAU. Memphis gamers bickered within the ultimate minutes of the Owls’ win within the first spherical. And as a substitute of going through 1-seed Purdue within the second, the Owls performed Fairleigh Dickinson, which was ranked 298th on KenPom previous to the second 16-over-1 upset in opposition to the Boilermakers.

On their method to the primary Candy 16 at school historical past — they received their first NCAA match recreation this yr, too — Dusty Might’s squad registered 108.5 factors per 100 possessions and simply 16 turnovers in two video games. Johnell Davis (20.5 PPG within the NCAA match) has been a gem for a workforce that will probably be cherished on its campus endlessly. Certain, luck helped FAU attain the second weekend. However the Owls have earned this too.

Up subsequent: vs. Tennessee (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, TBS)