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Georgia vs. Alabama football prediction: What the analytics say

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Georgia vs. Alabama football prediction: What the analytics say


The biggest game of the year so far kicks off from Bryant-Denny Stadium this weekend as No. 4 Alabama welcomes No. 2 Georgia in Kalen DeBoer’s biggest test yet as Nick Saban’s successor.

Bama sits 19th nationally in rushing production and is top-10 in FBS in both scoring offense and defense and coming off an open week that followed its 42-10 thrashing of Wisconsin on the road.

Georgia is the only team in college football yet to allow a touchdown this season, but that should likely change this week, and there’s some concern around productivity on both sides of the ball after playing unranked Kentucky close in a 1-point win two weeks ago.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

So far, the models are going with the home team to stay perfect this week.

Alabama is the current favorite on the index, projected to win the game outright in the majority 65.5 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Georgia as the expected winner in the remaining 34.5 percent of sims.

Alabama is projected to be 6.1 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

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If so, that would be enough for an upset.

That’s because Georgia is a 2.5 point favorite against Alabama, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

The book lists the total at 48.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -126 and for Alabama at +105 to win outright.

A majority of bets are predicting Alabama will pull off the upset against the Bulldogs.

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Almost 6 in 10 bets, or 59 percent, expect the Crimson Tide to either defeat Georgia outright or to stay within the 2.5 points.

The other 41 percent of wagers suggest that Georgia will win the game and cover the spread.

Georgia is projected to defeat Alabama by an implied score of 26 to 24 when taking the point spread and total into consideration, not covering the spread and hitting the over.

Alabama is second among SEC teams with an 82.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11 games, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model forecasts Georgia will win 9 games and has a 70.9 percent shot at the 12-team playoff, ranking fifth in the SEC.

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Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

  1. Texas (44)
  2. Georgia (13)
  3. Ohio State (5)
  4. Alabama
  5. Tennessee
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Miami
  8. Oregon
  9. Penn State
  10. Utah
  11. Missouri
  12. Michigan
  13. USC
  14. LSU
  15. Louisville
  16. Notre Dame
  17. Clemson
  18. Iowa State
  19. Illinois
  20. Oklahoma State
  21. Oklahoma
  22. BYU
  23. Kansas State
  24. Texas A&M
  25. Boise State

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Tornadoes, Severe Storms Tear Through Alabama – Videos from The Weather Channel

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Tornadoes, Severe Storms Tear Through Alabama – Videos from The Weather Channel




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Former Alabama QB Ruled Out Ahead of Week 17: Roll Call, Dec. 28, 2024

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Former Alabama QB Ruled Out Ahead of Week 17: Roll Call, Dec. 28, 2024


Former Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Hurts is set to miss the Philadelphia Eagles Week 17 games against the Dallas Cowboys as he’s been ruled out with a concussion. Hurts left the Eagles Week 16 game after taking a blow to the head.

The Eagles are still in the hunt for the top overall seed in the NFC but trail the Detroit Lions by a game.

Several former Alabama players are listed as questionable entering the weekend’s action. Former defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, Anfernee Jennings, A’Shan Robinson and Quinnen Williams are all in the grey area along with Miami Dolphins offensive stars Jaylen Waddle and Tua Tagovailoa.

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Thursday night former Alabama guard Collin Sexton recorded his first double-double of the season. He scored 19 points and got 11 assists for the Utah Jazz in a 122-120 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.

December 28, 1985: Freshman running back Gene Jelks and junior linebacker Cornelius Bennett were named game MVPs after Alabama’s 24-3 victory over Southern California in the Aloha Bowl. A 1-yard run by Craig Turner, a 24-yard pass from Mike Shula to Clay Whitehurst and a 14-yard end around by Al Bell accounted for the Crimson Tide touchdowns.

“We had great respect for Alabama, especially its defense, we knew they were a formidable opponent. But in retrospect, I think they were a lot stronger than a lot of our people thought.”

– Dennis Erickson after the 1993 Sugar Bow





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Davis Warren previews Alabama matchup: 'We plan on winning this game'

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Davis Warren previews Alabama matchup: 'We plan on winning this game'


Michigan has arrived in Tampa, Florida, for its New Year’s Eve kick against the Alabama Crimson Tide in what will be a rematch of last season’s epic Rose Bowl showdown, a game the Wolverines won, 27-20, in overtime.

The Wolverines held their first practice of the trip on Friday after arriving the day after Christmas. Excitement surrounding Michigan’s borderline elite recruiting class is certainly palpable — five-star QB Bryce Underwood is leading the way in that regard — but the team is still preparing for a battle against Alabama.

Before practice began on Friday, key players of the Michigan offense met with reporters to discuss the ReliaQuest Bowl. Starting quarterback Davis Warren talked about the transition from Michigan’s 13-10 win over Ohio State to now preparing for the game against the Crimson Tide.

“You get those couple weeks between Ohio (State) and this game, and you get a chance to reflect a little bit on the season, but I think we’ve taken it in stride and taken it as a real opportunity to get better at football and thinking about things you did during the year, things you did well, things you can improve on, and how you can work on them over these next two to three weeks of practice that we’ve had. … That’s been the goal — just getting better at football and preparing for our opponent while doing it,” Warren said.

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Notably, Warren began the year as the starter, but lost his job to Alex Orji after throwing three interceptions against Arkansas State in Week 3. But after experiments with Orji and Jack Tuttle failed, Warren was reinserted as a starter ahead of the Michigan State game.

Warren finished out the regular season strong, capping it off with an emphatic 13-10 win over Ohio State in Columbus.

Still, though, this season marks the first time in four years that the Wolverines are not playing for a national title, and with a star-studded recruiting class coming in, it’s hard for fans not to look ahead to 2025.

But ignoring what fans might be thinking about, Warren says the team isn’t looking past Alabama at all.

“I don’t think we’re overlooking (the game) at all. … As a group, we’re focused on winning this football game,” Warren said. “Michigan needs us to win this game, we want to win this game and we plan on winning this game. So, I know we’re going to take that approach. It’s a really good opportunity for all of us. Man, we’re going to fight tooth and nail to go get a win.”

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Michigan will practice on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the 2024 ReliaQuest Bowl, which will kick off at Noon ET on Tuesday, Dec. 31.

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