Alabama vs. San Diego State pick: March Madness predictions, odds, best bets

If there was any query about Alabama deserving the No. 1 general seed getting into the NCAA Match, these have been answered by two dominant performances from the present title favorites en path to the Candy 16.

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Unsurprisingly, the Crimson Tide are dealing as sizable favorites to advance to the Elite Eight, however they’ll face a tall job towards an underrated San Diego State crew in-built a method that would give Alabama bother on this spot.

Right here’s how we’re betting Friday’s contest, which suggestions off at 6:30 p.m. ET on TBS.

Alabama vs. San Diego State decide

• San Diego State +7.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Alabama vs. San Diego State prediction and evaluation

First, let’s make one thing very clear: Alabama is the perfect crew on this match, and it’ll take an impressed effort in a super matchup to beat this crew earlier than the ultimate.

Coming into the Candy 16, the Crimson Tide rank second in KenPom’s adjusted effectivity margin (+28.07) and boast the nation’s third-best scoring margin (+13.1) behind solely Houston and Gonzaga.

Neither of these groups performed in a serious convention like Alabama, which misplaced simply 5 video games all yr regardless of dealing with the Tenth-toughest schedule within the nation.

We’ve seen that dominance translate to the match: the Crimson Tide received their first two matchups by 20-plus factors, even with celebrity scorer Brandon Miller combining for simply 19 factors throughout these two contests.

All of that mentioned, it is a harmful matchup towards San Diego State, which has the kind of tenacious protection and methodical tempo to frustrate Nate Oats’ group.

The Aztecs are some of the unheralded groups on this match, rating 14th in adjusted effectivity after demolishing Furman within the second spherical.

That got here after a powerful first-round win over Charleston that noticed SDSU flex its defensive may within the closing minutes.

That’s actually the important thing to this complete crew: a relentless dedication to protection on each possession with high-level athletes at nearly each spot.

That’s one thing Alabama hasn’t seen since its loss to Tennessee in February – and, relationship again to November, a 15-point loss to UConn.

Unsurprisingly, the Aztecs rank fifth in defensive effectivity and fourth in opponent 3-point proportion (28.7%), although groups are nonetheless making an attempt 40.5% of their pictures from deep.

It’s a easy however efficient strategy from Brian Dutcher’s group: contest each shot and coax opponents to shoot themselves out of it.

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Thus far, that’s labored to close perfection: every of SDSU’s final 5 opponents have shot worse than 30% from three, with the final three every firing a minimum of 24 makes an attempt from lengthy vary.

All three posted their worst offensive effectivity of the season.

Fittingly, the Crimson Tide try 47.5% of their pictures from deep – eighth-most within the nation and probably the most of any crew within the match – however they’re connecting on simply 34.1% of these pictures.

These numbers are virtually an identical to what we noticed from Charleston and Furman, two high-volume and low-efficiency capturing groups that met their finish towards this tenacious Aztecs protection.

That’s to say nothing of the tournament-wide capturing woes that we’ve seen, which additionally favors San Diego State on this spot.

If the Aztecs can disrupt Alabama’s breakneck tempo on Friday and drive a excessive quantity of contested jumpers, they’ve sufficient of a bodily benefit inside to maintain this one shut – and even pull off the large upset.

Alabama vs. San Diego State odds (through BetMGM)

• Alabama -7.5 (-110), moneyline -350
• San Diego State +7.5 (-110), moneyline +280
• O/U 137.5 (-110)