Alabama football vs. LSU: Score prediction, scouting report

Another game, another chance for Alabama football to get revenge for a loss a season ago.

After beating Tennessee before the open week, the No. 8 Crimson Tide (7-1, 5-0 SEC) will play No. 14 LSU (6-2, 4-1) on Saturday (6:45 p.m., CBS) at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Win this game, and the Crimson Tide will be in a prime spot to win the SEC West, having a chance to lock it up the following week with a win over Kentucky.

Lose this game, and Alabama’s hopes of winning the SEC West take a hit, and a spot in the final four-team College Football Playoff is all but gone. No two-loss team has ever made the playoff.

Simply put, there’s no shortage of stakes in this game.

Here’s our scouting report of the Tigers, how they stack up with the Crimson Tide, and a score prediction for the game.

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Players to know

First off, there are several players who won’t be available for LSU for various reasons. All four of the cornerbacks LSU added in the transfer portal are out: JK Johnson, Zy Alexander, Denver Harris and Duce Chestnut. Top defensive lineman Mekhi Wingo is also out.

That leaves an LSU defense that has struggled in big games without some impactful players. But the defense does still have Harold Perkins, who gave Alabama problems at times a season ago. “This guy is one of the most dynamic players in our league,” Saban said Wednesday. This season, the linebacker has tallied 40 tackles, eight tackles for loss and three sacks to go with one interception, five pass breakups, four quarterback hits and two forced fumbles. Greg Penn III is the defense’s leading tackler with 52. He also has three tackles for loss, two sacks and an interception.

Offensively, LSU has stars all over. It starts with quarterback Jayden Daniels who’s a top contender for the Heisman Trophy. He’s the leader of the country’s top offense, and he’s the top quarterback in the country in passing efficiency (204.32) and passing touchdowns (25). Daniels is also fourth nationally in passing yards (2,573). This season, he has also rushed for 521 yards and five touchdowns.

He has some elite weapons around him too. He throws to Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers, two of the top receivers in the SEC and country. They have combined for 20 receiving touchdowns and each rank in the top five in the SEC in receiving yards.

LSU also has a talented runner in Logan Diggs, who’s fifth in the SEC with 611 rushing yards. He played in Alabama offensive coordinator Tommy Rees’ offense at Notre Dame the past two seasons before transferring to LSU for this season. He’s averaging 5.82 yards per carry and has scored six touchdowns.

History of Alabama football vs. LSU

Saturday’s game marks the 88th meeting between the two squads in a series that began in 1895. Alabama is 55-27-5 all-time vs. LSU. The Crimson Tide has a 14-8 record against the Tigers in Tuscaloosa, but LSU is the one that could build a streak. The Tigers won 32-31 in Baton Rouge a season ago. LSU coach Brian Kelly is 1-2 against Alabama all-time (two of those games at Notre Dame) while Alabama coach Nick Saban is 12-6 vs. LSU.

How Alabama-LSU stack up on offense

3rd down conversion percentage:

Alabama: 43.4% (38th nationally)

LSU: 57.8% (1st)

Passing offense:

Alabama: 219.5 yards per game (77th)

LSU: 339.9 yards per game (3rd)

Rushing offense:

Alabama: 147.1 yards per game (76th)

LSU: 213 yards per game (13th)

Red zone offense:

Alabama: 91.7% (t-20th)

LSU: 90.7% (t-25th)

Fewest sacks allowed:

Alabama: 4.38 per game (t-126th)

LSU: 2.12 sacks per game (t-71st)

Scoring offense:

Alabama: 30.6 points per game (50th)

LSU: 47.4 points per game (1st)

How Alabama-LSU stack up on defense

Third-down defense:

Alabama: 34.4% (34th)

LSU: 42.2% (99th)

Pass yards allowed:

Alabama: 197.6 yards per game (29th)

LSU: 238.5 yards per game (t-88th)

Red zone defense:

Alabama: 78.3% (t-36th)

LSU: 96.3% (t-127th)

Rushing defense:

Alabama: 108.8 yards per game (21st)

LSU: 156.5 yards per game (84th)

Sacks:

Alabama: 3.5 per game (t-8th)

LSU: 1.75 per game (t-95th)

Scoring defense:

Alabama: 16.5 points per game (16th)

LSU: 26.5 points per game (t-73rd)

Score prediction

Alabama 34, LSU 31: The Tigers offense could give the Crimson Tide some fits, but Alabama makes enough plays on defense to hold off LSU. The home crowd is the difference as the Crimson Tide all but cements itself as the SEC West winner.

What channel is Alabama vs. LSU on?

The game will be on CBS and can be streamed on Fubo. (Click here for a free trial)

Nick Kelly covers Alabama football and men’s basketball for The Tuscaloosa News, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at nkelly@gannett.com or follow him @_NickKelly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.

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