Politics
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to why there may be a partial government shutdown Saturday
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Funding for the Department of Homeland Security was already a question for some Democrats before the killing of Alex Pretti.
But Saturday’s killing by ICE agents gave Democrats who were on the fence about supporting the upcoming government funding plan a reason to solidify their opposition. And the killing only hardened those who were opposed to funding DHS before.
From a political standpoint, Democrats are compelled to fight this. Otherwise, their base will balk. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., endured brickbats from the liberal base last March when he and a group of other Democratic senators helped Republicans clear a filibuster to avoid a shutdown.
Progressives raged at Schumer. And the Senate’s top Democrat suddenly found himself crossways with House Democratic leaders who expected him to mount more of a fight over government funding.
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Lawmakers are teetering on the edge of a partial government shutdown with Homeland Security funding at the forefront of a heated debate. (Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The liberal base certainly got that this fall as Democrats withheld their votes to fund the government and fought over expiring Obamacare subsidies. The government shuttered for 43 days. But Democrats never earned a restoration of Obamacare subsidies. The Senate took a vote related to restoring the subsidies. Nothing happened. The House actually passed a bill re-upping the subsidies for three years. But the issue remains at an impasse.
Despite the fall brawl, Democratic congressional leaders faced a narrow path to walk for this funding round. They still felt pressure from the left to oppose money for DHS, long before the killing of Renee Good and Pretti. But Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., did not go to the mat to oppose funding this time. They wanted to finesse this, believing that a shutdown was bad politics for them after the fall experience. After all, Democrats never scored precisely what they wanted. By the same token, Schumer and Jeffries didn’t wade deeply into the funding fight, perhaps afraid of breaking a fragile truce on spending bills.
That all changed Saturday. Democrat after Democrat published statements that they wouldn’t vote to fund DHS. Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, caucuses with the Democrats. He was one senator instrumental to helping re-open the government last fall. King said he couldn’t support funding this time around.
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So unless something changes by 11:59:59 p.m. ET on Friday, Jan. 30, 78% of the federal government will lack money to operate. The six-bill, $1.2 trillion spending package doesn’t only fund the Department of Homeland Security, but it also provides money for the Pentagon, Health and Human Services, Labor & Housing programs, Transportation and Education.
The DHS bill was radioactive in the House. So the House broke that bill off from the rest of the package. The House approved the DHS funding measure 220-207 with seven Democratic yeas. The House approved the remaining bills 341-88.
The House then married the six bills together in one package, sent it to the Senate and left town.
There was some grumbling from senators that this was a “take it or leave it” package.
Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, announced he won’t support the DHS funding bill following the fatal shooting in Minneapolis and as federal agents enter his home state. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
And after the shooting, all bets were off. On Saturday, Schumer declared that “Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included.”
Democrats implored Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., to break off the DHS funding bill from the rest of the spending package and handle that separately. Otherwise, they would oppose the entire plan.
On Monday, Schumer signaled that “Senate Democrats have made clear we are ready to quickly advance the five appropriations bills separately from the DHS funding bill before the January 30th deadline.” He also said that “Republicans will again be responsible for another government shutdown.”
$174B SPENDING PACKAGE TO AVERT SHUTDOWN CLEARS KEY HURDLE IN SENATE
Well, this is an amalgamated appropriations bill sent over from the House. Not a Kit-Kat bar. You just can’t break off one piece of it.
In short, what Schumer is proposing would spark a government shutdown. It’s not clear that there are the votes to do what Schumer is suggesting. And doubtful that the Senate would have the time. That’s to say nothing of getting the House on the same page before the deadline. Moreover, the House would just have to magically accept the new Senate position. That’s probably not going to happen considering what the House went through just to pass that minibus spending bill.
And we have not even mentioned that most of the money that Democrats are crowing about for DHS is already out the door. In the One Big Beautiful Bill, Republicans approved $75 billion for border security and ICE through 2029. In that measure, Republicans converted “discretionary spending” (which Congress controls) into a “mandatory appropriation” through 2029. Yes, this tactic agitates Members of the Appropriations Committee. But this has been done before, notably by Democrats when approving Obamacare.
What Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is proposing would, in essence, trigger a shutdown. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
So going after DHS right now would have little impact on the funding for ICE. However, Democrats could demand certain “guardrails” and changes in policy for ICE.
From a parliamentary standpoint, ripping the six-bill package apart is a mess. First of all, the Senate must agree on a “motion to strike” the DHS section from the six-bill combo package. The Senate would have to vote on this. Or, in the interest of time, do this via unanimous consent. But because the “motion to strike” by itself is debatable, the issue could set up a possible filibuster. Sixty votes are needed to cut off debate on just that question alone – stripping the DHS provision from the rest of the overall bill.
It’s important that a motion to strike the DHS money from the rest of the bill does not mean that the remaining five bills are ready to go. The Senate would have to agree that this is the new bill. Senators would then have to overcome a filibuster once and then vote to pass the bill. Those floor mechanics get you well past the early Saturday morning deadline.
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Then the Senate must tangle with passing the standalone DHS funding bill by itself. That certainly isn’t going to be done by Saturday morning.
Moreover, none of these scenarios even addresses the House. If the Senate did approve the revamped five-bill spending package and the solitary DHS bill, the measures must return to the House. The House would have to vote on a “motion to concur” on the five-bill minibus. And then separately, on the solo DHS measure. That’s probably untenable in the House. Anything under this plan wouldn’t meet the early Saturday morning deadline. In addition, the House could glue the bills together another way and send it back to the Senate. Or, the House could even move to go to a conference committee and try to blend the bills into one.
There is no easy way out of this at such a late date. And that’s why you likely have a partial government shutdown at 12:00:01 a.m. ET on Saturday.
Despite ICE being funded by One Big Beautiful Bill, disruptions to other services loom ahead. (Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Even though ICE is funded thanks to the One Big Beautiful Bill, there’s a big penalty and disruption and other services. TSA agents are unpaid again. That’s a major problem considering what they went through this fall – and coming on the heels of the monster winter storm which swept across the country in the past few days. Air traffic controllers would again face the lack of a paycheck as part of the transportation spending bill.
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Then, there are the politics. Who gets blamed? Republicans are concerned about losing support from voters based on the tactics of ICE. That’s why some Republicans are searching for some changes – but not ready to nuke the spending bill. Meantime, if the government shuts down thanks to Democrats withholding their votes, that may resonate with progressives. But it may hurt the party if Democrats are viewed as the party responsible for another shutdown.
This is a tough situation all around. And there’s not an obvious off-ramp.
Politics
Video: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran
new video loaded: Trump’s War of Choice With Iran
By David E. Sanger, Gilad Thaler, Thomas Vollkommer and Laura Salaberry
March 1, 2026
Politics
Dems’ potential 2028 hopefuls come out against US strikes on Iran
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Some of the top rumored Democratic potential candidates for president in 2028 are showing a united front in opposing U.S. strikes on Iran, with several high-profile figures accusing President Donald Trump of launching an unnecessary and unconstitutional war.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris said Trump was “dragging the United States into a war the American people do not want.”
“Let me be clear: I am opposed to a regime-change war in Iran, and our troops are being put in harm’s way for the sake of Trump’s war of choice,” Harris said in a statement Saturday following the joint U.S. and Israeli strikes throughout Iran.
“This is a dangerous and unnecessary gamble with American lives that also jeopardizes stability in the region and our standing in the world,” she continued. “What we are witnessing is not strength. It is recklessness dressed up as resolve.”
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Gov. Gavin Newsom are leading Democratic 2028 hopefuls who spoke out against U.S. strikes on Iran. (Big Event Media/Getty Images for HumanX Conference; Reuters/Liesa Johannssen; Mario Tama/Getty Images)
California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivered some of his sharpest criticism during a book tour stop Saturday night in San Francisco, accusing Trump of manufacturing a crisis.
“It stems from weakness masquerading as strength,” Newsom said. “He lied to you. So reckless is the only way to describe this.”
“He didn’t describe to the American people what the endgame is here,” Newsom added. “There wasn’t one. He manufactured it.”
Newsom is currently promoting his memoir, “Young Man in a Hurry,” with recent and upcoming stops in South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada — three key early voting states in the Democratic presidential calendar.
Earlier in the day, Newsom said Iran’s “corrupt and repressive” regime must never obtain nuclear weapons and that the “leadership of Iran must go.”
“But that does not justify the President of the United States engaging in an illegal, dangerous war that will risk the lives of our American service members and our friends without justification to the American people,” Newsom wrote on X.
California is home to more than half of the roughly 400,000 Iranian immigrants in the United States, including a large community in West Los Angeles often referred to as “Tehrangeles.”
DEMOCRATS BUCK PARTY LEADERS TO DEFEND TRUMP’S ‘DECISIVE ACTION’ ON IRAN
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., a leading progressive voice and “Squad” member, accused Trump of dragging Americans into a conflict they did not support.
“The American people are once again dragged into a war they did not want by a president who does not care about the long-term consequences of his actions. This war is unlawful. It is unnecessary. And it will be catastrophic,” Ocasio-Cortez said.
“Just this week, Iran and the United States were negotiating key measures that could have staved off war. The President walked away from these discussions and chose war instead,” she continued.
“In moments of war, our Constitution is unambiguous: Congress authorizes war. The President does not,” she said, pledging to vote “YES on Representatives Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie’s War Powers Resolution.”
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker criticized the strikes and accused Trump of ignoring Congress. (Daniel Boczarski/Getty Images for Vox Media)
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, another Democrat often mentioned as a potential 2028 contender, also criticized the strikes and accused Trump of ignoring Congress.
“No justification, no authorization from Congress, and no clear objective,” Pritzker wrote on X.
“Donald Trump is once again sidestepping the Constitution and once again failing to explain why he’s taking us into another war,” he continued. “Americans asked for affordable housing and health care, not another potentially endless conflict.”
“God protect our troops,” Pritzker added.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro focused his criticism on war powers, arguing Trump acted outside constitutional guardrails.
“In our democracy, the American people — through our elected representatives — decide when our nation goes to war,” Shapiro said, adding that Trump “acted unilaterally — without Congressional approval.”
JONATHAN TURLEY: TRUMP STRIKES IRAN — PRECEDENT AND HISTORY ARE ON HIS SIDE
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro focused his criticism on war powers, arguing Trump acted outside constitutional guardrails. (Rachel Wisniewski/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“Make no mistake, the Iranian regime represses its own people… they must never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons,” he said. “But that does not justify the President of the United States engaging in an illegal, dangerous war.”
Shapiro added that “Congress must use all available power” to prevent further escalation.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also accused Trump of launching a “war of choice.”
“The President has launched our nation and our great military into a war of choice, risking American lives and resources, ignoring American law, and endangering our allies and partners,” Buttigieg wrote on X. “This nation learned the hard way that an unnecessary war, with no plan for what comes next, can lead to years of chaos and put America in still greater danger.”
Buttigieg has been hitting early voting states, stopping in New Hampshire and Nevada in recent weeks to campaign for Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who has been floated as a rising national figure within the party, said he lost friends in Iraq to an illegal war and opposed the strikes.
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“Young working-class kids should not pay the ultimate price for regime change and a war that hasn’t been explained or justified to the American people. We can support the democracy movement and the Iranian people without sending our troops to die,” Gallego wrote on X.
Fox News’ Daniel Scully and Alex Nitzberg contributed to this report.
Politics
Commentary: With midterm vote starting, here’s where things stand in national redistricting fight
Donald Trump has never been one to play by the rules.
Whether it’s stiffing contractors as a real estate developer, defying court orders he doesn’t like as president or leveraging the Oval Office to vastly inflate his family’s fortune, Trump’s guiding principle can be distilled to a simple, unswerving calculation: What’s in it for me?
Trump is no student of history. He’s famously allergic to books. But he knows enough to know that midterm elections like the one in November have, with few exceptions, been ugly for the party holding the presidency.
With control of the House — and Trump’s virtually unchecked authority — dangling by a gossamer thread, he reckoned correctly that Republicans were all but certain to lose power this fall unless something unusual happened.
So he effectively broke the rules.
Normally, the redrawing of the country’s congressional districts takes place once every 10 years, following the census and accounting for population changes over the previous decade. Instead, Trump prevailed upon the Republican governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, to throw out the state’s political map and refashion congressional lines to wipe out Democrats and boost GOP chances of winning as many as five additional House seats.
The intention was to create a bit of breathing room, as Democrats need a gain of just three seats to seize control of the House.
In relatively short order, California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, responded with his own partisan gerrymander. He rallied voters to pass a tit-for-tat ballot measure, Proposition 50, which revised the state’s political map to wipe out Republicans and boost Democratic prospects of winning as many as five additional seats.
Then came the deluge.
In more than a dozen states, lawmakers looked at ways to tinker with their congressional maps to lift their candidates, stick it to the other party and gain House seats in November.
Some of those efforts continue, including in Virginia where, as in California, voters are being asked to amend the state Constitution to let majority Democrats redraw political lines ahead of the midterm. A special election is set for April 21.
But as the first ballots of 2026 are cast on Tuesday — in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas — the broad contours of the House map have become clearer, along with the result of all those partisan machinations. The likely upshot is a nationwide partisan shift of fewer than a handful of seats.
The independent, nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which has a sterling decades-long record of election forecasting, said the most probable outcome is a wash. “At the end of the day,” said Erin Covey, who analyzes House races for the Cook Report, “this doesn’t really benefit either party in a real way.”
Well.
That was a lot of wasted time and energy.
Let’s take a quick spin through the map and the math, knowing that, of course, there are no election guarantees.
In Texas, for instance, new House districts were drawn assuming Latinos would back Republican candidates by the same large percentage they supported Trump in 2024. But that’s become much less certain, given the backlash against his draconian immigration enforcement policies; numerous polls show a significant falloff in Latino support for the president, which could hurt GOP candidates up and down the ballot.
But suppose Texas Republicans gain five seats as hoped for and California Democrats pick up the five seats they’ve hand-crafted. The result would be no net change.
Elsewhere, under the best case for each party, a gain of four Democratic House seats in Virginia would be offset by a gain of four Republican House seats in Florida.
That leaves a smattering of partisan gains here and there. A combined pickup of four or so Republican seats in Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri could be mostly offset by Democratic gains of a seat apiece in New York, Maryland and Utah.
(The latter is not a result of legislative high jinks, but rather a judge throwing out the gerrymandered map passed by Utah Republicans, who ignored a voter-approved ballot measure intended to prevent such heavy-handed partisanship. A newly created district, contained entirely within Democratic-leaning Salt Lake County, seems certain to go Democrats’ way in November.)
In short, it’s easy to characterize the political exertions of Trump, Abbott, Newsom and others as so much sound and fury producing, at bottom, little to nothing.
But that’s not necessarily so.
The campaign surrounding Proposition 50 delivered a huge political boost to Newsom, shoring up his standing with Democrats, significantly raising his profile across the country and, not least for his 2028 presidential hopes, helping the governor build a significant nationwide fundraising base.
In crimson-colored Indiana, Republicans refused to buckle under tremendous pressure from Trump, Vice President JD Vance and other party leaders, rejecting an effort to redraw the state’s congressional map and give the GOP a hold on all nine House seats. That showed even Trump’s Svengali-like hold on his party has its limits.
But the biggest impact is also the most corrosive.
By redrawing political lines to predetermine the outcome of House races, politicians rendered many of their voters irrelevant and obsolete. Millions of Democrats in Texas, Republicans in California and partisans in other states have been effectively disenfranchised, their voices rendered mute. Their ballots spindled and nullified.
In short, the politicians — starting with Trump — extended a big middle finger to a large portion of the American electorate.
Is it any wonder, then, so many voters hold politicians and our political system in contempt?
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