Putin unlikely to be deterred by setbacks, intelligence officials tell House committee

Director of Nationwide Intelligence Avril Haines advised lawmakers Tuesday morning that Russian President Vladimir Putin didn’t count on the extent of Ukrainian resistance to his invasion, nor the extent and pace of sanctions imposed by nations world wide.

“Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and as a substitute might escalate, basically doubling down,” she mentioned.

The feedback from Haines and different intelligence officers got here in an unusually candid public listening to with members of the Home Intelligence Committee. The listening to was anticipated to deal with the intelligence group’s annual international risk evaluation, nevertheless it was as a substitute largely dominated by questions on Russia’s two-week-old invasion of its neighbor Ukraine. The Home panel will get a categorised evaluation within the afternoon.

Haines mentioned Putin seemingly anticipated the battle to final a matter of days at most and predicted Russia will likely be exhausting pressed to carry any floor it good points.

“We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West doesn’t give him correct deference and perceives this as a battle he can not afford to lose, however what he may be prepared to simply accept as a victory might change over time given the numerous prices he’s incurring,” she mentioned.

CIA Director William Burns agreed, saying Putin initially believed Ukraine was weakened and simply intimidated, and that the Russian chief had modernized his army to the purpose of making certain a fast victory. Burns added that Putin had been assured early on that he had sanction-proofed his economic system, and that the Europeans had been too distracted to pay a lot consideration to the invasion.

“He’s been confirmed mistaken on each rely,” Burns mentioned.

Nonetheless, Burns mentioned the invasion is a “matter of deep private conviction” for Putin.

“He has been stewing in a flamable mixture of grievance and ambition for a few years,” Burns mentioned.

Putin’s plan was premised on seizing Kyiv inside the first two days of the marketing campaign, Burns mentioned, and he’s getting more and more annoyed on the lack of progress.

“He’s more likely to double down and attempt to grind down the Ukrainian army with no regard for civilian casualties,” Burns mentioned. “He has no sustainable political endgame within the face of what will proceed to be fierce resistance from Ukrainians.”

At this level, Burns mentioned he can not see how Putin can get up a puppet regime within the face of large opposition from the Ukrainian folks, warning there may be an “ugly subsequent few weeks” forward.

Protection Intelligence Company Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier estimated that 2,000 to 4,000 Russian troopers have died within the lower than two weeks for the reason that invasion started, a quantity that far exceeds what the Russian authorities has acknowledged. For context, the US suffered greater than 7,000 army deaths over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Berrier mentioned Russia seems to be making an attempt to chop off meals and water to Kyiv as a technique.

“It’s going to grow to be considerably determined in I’d say 10 days to 2 weeks,” he mentioned.

Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) advised reporters after the listening to that as Putin doubles down on Ukraine, it stays tough to see how the battle ends.

“What’s the offramp? I believe what we are able to do is simply to proceed to escalate the worth that he and Russia need to pay for this,” Schiff mentioned. “I believe till he feels that his personal regime is in danger, it’s exhausting to see him in search of an exit ramp.”

Congressional lawmakers are debating how a lot further assist to ship to Ukraine, and what further financial measures to take in opposition to Russia, which is already seeing unprecedented sanctions on its monetary methods, prime leaders and companies. On Tuesday, President Biden introduced a ban on the import of Russian oil and power merchandise into the US.

Senate Majority Chief Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) has known as for some $12 billion in assist, and urged passage this week, saying it “will present each humanitarian and army help for Ukraine: funding for refugees, medical provides, emergency meals provides, in addition to funding to assist weapons transfers into Ukraine, and assist for our jap flank NATO allies.”

Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) has mentioned Congress is trying to go $10 billion in emergency assist for Ukraine as half of a bigger authorities funding measure. A vote may happen as quickly as immediately.