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Opinion: Nikki Haley can still beat Trump. Just not by winning the nomination

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Opinion: Nikki Haley can still beat Trump. Just not by winning the nomination

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley reached a decision point after her loss in January’s New Hampshire Republican primary. She could travel the path of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the Democratic presidential candidate who congenially yielded to the eventual party nominee in 2020. Or she could follow the road of Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Democratic presidential candidate who dogged the party nominee for months in 2016, bruising her, draining her resources and damaging, fatefully, her standing with the party base. Which would Haley choose?

She had waffled in New Hampshire, offering a convoluted message in a race in which Donald Trump, and Trumpism, are the paramount issue. Her recent, sharp attacks on Trump, and her vow to stay in the race even after her 20-point defeat by Trump in the South Carolina primary Saturday, suggest that she has achieved greater clarity. For now, she’s opted to take the less hospitable road — more Bernie ’16 than ’20.

That could be very bad news for Trump.

In 2020, Joe Biden won about 87% of Sanders supporters in November, according to estimates by Vanderbilt University political scientist John Sides and two colleagues. In 2016, by contrast, only about 79% of Sanders supporters voted for Hillary Clinton in the general election. Worse, Sanders received a much larger share of votes in 2016 — more than 4 in 10 — than he did in 2020. So Clinton’s November shortfall was even more significant.

“We found in 2016 that Sanders supporters had a less favorable view of Clinton as the campaign went on,” Sides told me.

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Every race involving Trump is sui generis. (White nationalist demagogues under multiple federal and state indictments are tough on standard political models.) But it’s not hard to imagine that a miniature version of Bernie-mentum may be taking hold in the 2024 GOP presidential race. Haley is giving anti-Trump Republicans, many of them women, a place to go. The question is whether she will also give enough of them a place to stay — even after Trump is the party’s official nominee.

“She’s not going to win the nomination. But she’s going to pull in over 20% in most of the primaries that she’s involved in,” said Mike Madrid, a former political director of the California Republican Party who is an anti-Trump activist. If a sizable minority of those GOP voters refuse to support Trump in the general election, his path to victory is all but impossible. “He’s got a very hard ceiling,” Madrid said. “If Haley can move that ceiling three or four points downward, that’s devastating.”

Is that Haley’s goal? It’s hard to tell. Haley shuns the “Never Trump” label and casts herself only as a truth teller who has “no fear of Trump’s retribution” and no desire to “kiss the ring.” Squeezed between the mutually loathing camps of MAGA and Never Trump, however, she has found a path of her own. She is joined there by a consistent minority of the primary electorate, a community of exiles that translates into political leverage that no Trump supplicant can muster. It’s still possible that Haley could endorse Trump. But she would gain nothing, and lose much, by capitulating.

“She may be the first Republican politician of this era to realize that, with Trump in this arena, she has no future,” Madrid said. “If Trump wins, the next nominee is either going to be Trump himself or his son or his daughter. He’s putting his daughter-in-law in charge of the Republican National Committee.”

The longer Haley stays in, the more she becomes a rallying point for Republicans who do not wish to be ruled by a degenerate cult. And the more Republicans grow accustomed to opposing Trump, the more precarious his situation becomes. A wave of Democratic voters might be needed to swamp Trump. But only a trickle of Republicans, withholding their support, can achieve a similar result.

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Trump has grown more authoritarian and vindictive, but he has not crushed the resistance — even within the GOP. Donors have ignored his threats and continued to fund Haley without genuine hope of victory. In Washington recently, while Haley was losing her home-state primary, pro-democracy conservatives gathered for the Principles First Summit, featuring a range of Never Trump luminaries. Last year, the conference drew about 400 attendees. This year, more than 700 registered. Former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney has given pro-democracy conservatives a backbone. Now Haley is giving them an electoral voice.

Faced with Haley’s intransigence, a Trump campaign official told Semafor’s David Weigel that MAGA’s march to victory would not be diverted by Haley’s “delusion.” It would indeed be delusional for Haley to believe she can seize the Republican nomination for president. If the goal, however, is to destroy Donald Trump, and repel the political pathologies that he embodies, Haley appears to be on the right road.

Francis Wilkinson is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. @fdwilkinson

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Video: Steve Hilton Holds Slim Early Lead in California Governor’s Race

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Video: Steve Hilton Holds Slim Early Lead in California Governor’s Race

new video loaded: Steve Hilton Holds Slim Early Lead in California Governor’s Race

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Steve Hilton Holds Slim Early Lead in California Governor’s Race

Steve Hilton, a Republican and former Fox News host, held a narrow lead in early votes over two Democratic opponents in California’s nonpartisan primary for governor. The top two candidates will advance to the general election in November.

“Change is coming to California, and it’s long overdue. I want to just say something from my heart to every single person who’s voted for me. We’re not — We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good.” [cheers] “Tonight, the people of the great state of California, in the greatest nation on earth, have spoken. [cheers] Loudly and proudly. [cheers] And while I take nothing for granted, there are lots of ballots left to be counted, it appears that we are on track to advance to November.” [cheers] “It might take some time to figure out where this is going. We’re going to wait until every ballot is counted. We’re going to give democracy a time to work, and we know we finished really strong.” [cheers]

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Steve Hilton, a Republican and former Fox News host, held a narrow lead in early votes over two Democratic opponents in California’s nonpartisan primary for governor. The top two candidates will advance to the general election in November.

By Axel Boada

June 3, 2026

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Spencer Pratt surges to runoff in LA mayor’s race after angry voters send message to Karen Bass

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Spencer Pratt surges to runoff in LA mayor’s race after angry voters send message to Karen Bass

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Reality television personality Spencer Pratt appears on track to clear a key hurdle in Los Angeles’ mayoral race as he seeks to unseat incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in November.

Bass, who has led the city since 2022 amid a turbulent stretch rocked by her response to wildfires, advanced to a runoff after failing to secure a majority of the vote in Tuesday’s primary election. With no candidate surpassing the 50% threshold, the top two finishers will face off in a November runoff.

The anticipated runoff is a symbolic blow to Bass, who was endorsed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., and former Vice President Kamala Harris and has spent decades serving California in a series of elected Democratic offices.

Pratt, a first-time candidate known for the MTV reality show “The Hills,” was running in second place as of Wednesday morning.

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Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass attends the Women for Bass Phone bank event in the Baldwin Hills area of Los Angeles on June 1, 2026. (Louise Barnsley/Splash for Fox News Digital)

REALITY TV STAR SPENCER PRATT TESTS LA VOTERS’ APPETITE FOR POLITICAL OUTSIDER

“Obviously, God wanted five more months of me exposing the failures of our mayor,” Pratt gloated to reporters as the returns came in Tuesday evening. 

Pratt has relentlessly hammered Bass on issues that have long plagued the city, including fire recovery, street homelessness and crime. The insurgent candidate holds Bass personally responsible for devastating wildfires that destroyed more than 18,000 structures in the city, including his Pacific Palisades home. 

Pratt’s surge appears to have shut out Los Angeles City Council member Nithya Raman, a former ally of Bass who challenged the incumbent from the left and was once viewed as a threat to her bid for a second term. Raman is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and has argued for steering the city in a more progressive direction.

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Raman has not yet conceded despite running well behind Bass and Pratt as of Wednesday morning.

Pratt, a registered Republican, faces an uphill battle to defeat Bass in November if he advances to the runoff election.

Less than 20% of voters in the heavily Democratic city identify with the GOP, though Los Angeles’ mayoral contest is officially nonpartisan. 

Media personality and independent candidate Spencer Pratt, left, pictured alongside LA mayor Karen Bass, right. (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images; Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

KAREN BASS GRILLED OVER BROKEN HOMELESSNESS PROMISE, BLAMES BUREAUCRACY FOR SLOWED PROGRESS

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Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., who represents a San Diego-anchored seat, told Fox News Digital that Pratt has won a following in the mayoral contest due to widespread voter discontent with Bass’ leadership.

“He’s catching fire among ardent historic Democrat voters because Karen Bass has been so ineffective,” Issa said in an interview. “And every time she opens her mouth, she’s talking about more of the same to people who have seen their streets, both crime-ridden and in fact … ineffectively managed.” 

Bass, conversely, argues that her leadership is leading Los Angeles in the right direction.

“Los Angeles is at a turning point. After decades of rising homelessness, under-built housing and a shrinking police force, it’s Mayor Karen Bass who finally stepped up to change how City Hall works,” Bass’s website reads.

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman appears likely to finish in third place, keeping her out of the November runoff. (Eric Thayer/Getty Images)

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“Homelessness is down, more housing is being built, and the LAPD is hiring new officers,” it also claims.

Fox News Digital’s Leo Briceno contributed reporting.

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Early returns indicate L.A. County voters have doubts about healthcare sales tax measure

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Early returns indicate L.A. County voters have doubts about healthcare sales tax measure

Los Angeles County’s half-cent sales tax to fund healthcare services was trailing Tuesday, with early returns showing a majority of voters rejecting the measure.

The tax — a half-penny of every dollar spent in the county — is meant to prop up local hospitals and clinics that are hemorrhaging funding after recent federal cuts.

The sales tax, which needs a simple majority to pass, would take effect Oct. 1 and last five years. Officials say it would pull in $1 billion annually to help plug the budget holes hitting local hospitals and clinics.

L.A. County health officials anticipate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law by President Trump last summer, will slash more than $2 billion from the county’s health services budget within the next three years. Due to eligibility changes, the county will no longer be able to get reimbursements for many Californians who have lost Medi-Cal.

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The measure was championed by a coalition of healthcare advocates called Restore Healthcare for Angelenos who warned that mass layoffs and emergency room closures could be imminent if new funding didn’t come fast. The Department of Public Health recently closed seven clinics — a grim sign, supporters said, of service cuts to come.

Voters haven’t rejected a sales tax hike since 2012, when a transportation measure fell just short with 66.1% support. It needed 66.7% to pass.

A majority of county supervisors had supported the new tax proposal, voting 4 to 1 this February to put it on the ballot. But the measure faced significant opposition from local cities, with opponents arguing the sales tax hike would unfairly burden the poorest county residents and encourage people to spend their dollars across the county line.

Supervisor Kathryn Barger, the board’s lone opponent of the tax, said she was concerned it was a “general” tax, meaning the money wouldn’t be earmarked for healthcare costs. Instead, she argued, politicians would have final say over how the money gets spent.

The supervisors have created a plan for spending the tax money, with the largest chunk of the money meant to cover the costs for patients without insurance. The measure also asked voters to sign off on a nine-member oversight committee.

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The county currently has a base sales tax rate of 9.75%, and cities impose local taxes on top of that.

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