Politics

Millions of Movers Reveal American Polarization in Action

Published

3 weeks ago

October 31, 2024

Millions of Movers Reveal American Polarization in Action

Aside from their political views, Joshua Fisher and Ryan Troyer have a lot in common.

In 2020, they lived across the street from each other in Sioux Falls, S.D. They are both white men of a similar age. Mr. Fisher, 42, is an auto technician; Mr. Troyer, 39, is a sanitation worker. They are both married. They both have associate degrees.

They have something else in common, too: They both moved away from Sioux Falls. Mr. Troyer left in the fall of 2021, and Mr. Fisher about a year later.

In the process, they unwittingly became a part of a nationwide pattern that could matter in a close presidential election.

They made the country more geographically polarized.

These estimates, based on a New York Times analysis of detailed public voter registration records of more than 3.5 million Americans who moved since the last presidential election, offer a new and extraordinarily detailed glimpse into one of the ways that we segregate from each other — down to the street level.

Across all movers, Republicans chose neighborhoods Donald J. Trump won by an average of 19 percentage points in 2020, while Democrats chose neighborhoods President Biden won by the opposite margin (also 19 points). In total, movers started in neighborhoods 31 percentage points apart; they ended in neighborhoods 38 points apart. Across the country, the result is a widening gap between blue neighborhoods and red ones.

Where Democrats moved

A solidly or heavily Biden place

A relatively balanced place

A solidly or heavily Trump place

Where Republicans moved

A solidly or heavily Biden place

A relatively balanced place

A solidly or heavily Trump place

The independents and unaffiliated voters in our set picked more evenly balanced neighborhoods.

The different choices that movers made are not easily explained by things like voters’ ages, race, income or if they were leaving a rural or urban area. Even when narrowing our comparisons to demographically similar pairs of people from the same kinds of neighborhoods — people like Mr. Fisher and Mr. Troyer — Democrats and Republicans still chose neighborhoods that were 24 points apart in the 2020 vote.

Our analysis suggests partisanship itself, intentional or not, plays a powerful role when Americans uproot and find a new home. And their very personal decisions about where to resettle help power the churn of migration that is continuously reshaping American life at the neighborhood level and contributing to a sense that Americans are siloed in echo chambers, online and in their daily lives.

It also has real stakes for our elections: Political scientists say the more partisan a district or state becomes, the less a candidate needs to woo voters from the other party — or, after winning, govern on their behalf.

Interviews with 20 recent movers found that, consistent with research on the subject, politics alone did not drive a decision to move. But most we spoke to said it did influence their decision, and for some it topped the must-have list — the movers in our analysis are all registered to vote, and nearly all we spoke to intended to vote on Election Day.

Impact on the 2024 election

It’s unclear how much of a direct effect movers might have on the election next week. Each cycle, the electoral landscape changes in ways that have nothing to do with moving: People turn 18; people die; people change their minds or decide not to vote. But in an extraordinarily close race, even small shifts could prove decisive.

The 3.5 million movers in our analysis are a small number compared with the 158 million people who voted in 2020, but they do help explain some recent electoral trends — like Florida’s electoral shift to the right or the gains Democrats have made in Georgia.

In all but three states that voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, more Democrats have moved in than Republicans. The reverse is true for states Mr. Trump won — in all but one, more Republicans moved in.

Partisanship of incoming movers and the states they moved to

Voters who moved into the 25 states Biden won in 2020 tended to be more Democratic than their neighbors.

And likewise, voters who moved into the 25 states Trump won tended to be more Republican than their neighbors.

In 36 states, polarization happened in both directions at once: More newcomers were of the winning party, and more of those who left were of the losing party.

Our analysis is an undercount of partisan migration; it may be missing some movers who haven’t yet filed a new address or registered to vote in their new homes. But it probably accounts for most voters who moved, and it shows how population shifts can have political consequences.

Consider Florida: Once a critical swing state, it has become more reliably Republican. Out of the 3.5 million voters we tracked, more than 200,000 registered Republicans have moved in over the past four years, more than twice the number of Democrats.

Mr. Biden won Georgia in 2020, the first time a Democrat won the state since 1992. Among more than 140,000 newcomers, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by more than 9,000. Over the same span, at least 10,000 more Republicans than Democrats moved out of the state — a third of them to Florida.

In Arizona, a state Mr. Biden won by less than 12,000 votes, incoming Republicans — a third of them from California — outnumbered incoming Democrats by a margin of three to two. Accounting for departures, Arizona gained about 17,000 Republican voters.

In all three Northern battlegrounds — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — Democrats made small gains through migration. In Pennsylvania, this year’s key battleground, Democratic gains actually came amid population loss: For both parties, more voters moved out than in. But Republicans lost more.

California has contributed to this trend in a different way: by exporting Republicans en masse. More Republicans have moved out of California than any other state. And those who did have made other states redder in the process — particularly Texas, Arizona, Florida and Nevada.

What drives moving

Tens of millions of Americans move each year, whether across town or across the country. Most of the voters in our set moved during the pandemic, when home sales surged and many Americans were ready for a change.

Mr. Troyer, the Republican from Sioux Falls, moved closer to his wife’s family in Minnesota. Mr. Fisher, the Democrat, moved to escape the harsh South Dakota winters.

Mr. Troyer, a Republican, on the front porch of his home outside Minneapolis, in a neighborhood that voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 by a wide margin.

Ben Brewer for The New York Times

And yet both ended up in places that were more partisan than where they came from, a phenomenon known as “sorting.” Research on partisanship and migration has found politics typically figures into the equation only indirectly — or even coincidentally.

Previous research has found that most people don’t intentionally seek out politically homogenous areas, but instead share similar preferences with people who vote as they do, with Democrats favoring cities and Republicans favoring the country, on average. A 2015 study, however, found that people favor properties in neighborhoods that reflect their partisan identity.

“Am I going to fit? Fittingness is a very important criteria for a place to live,” said James Gimpel, a politics professor at the University of Maryland, and co-author of the study. “Nobody wakes up in the morning and says, ‘Gee, I’m looking forward to having a fight with my neighbors.’”

Our analysis and interviews suggest just how intertwined political and lifestyle choices can be when it comes to choosing a new home, particularly since 2020.

Mr. Fisher, the Democrat, said that while he was eager to escape the snow, he also found the local politics increasingly oppressive. An outspoken liberal, with bumper stickers on his Jeep to match, he was eager to find a place that better reflected his sensibilities.

Mr. Fisher, a Democrat, finds his new home in Charlotte, N.C., “definitely bluer” and “a nice change,” he said.

Amanda Kathleen Greene for The New York Times

“For the most part, you just kind of kept to yourself,” Mr. Fisher, a South Dakota native, said of his old neighborhood, a precinct Mr. Biden won by five points. He says he feels more comfortable in his home in southwest Charlotte, in a precinct Mr. Biden carried by 46 points. “It’s definitely bluer than where we were before, and kind of a nice change,” he said.

And Mr. Troyer now lives in Otsego, northwest of Minneapolis, which Mr. Trump won by 27 points. Mr. Troyer said he chose his neighborhood because it was close to his job and family. While he did not intentionally seek out a conservative community, he feels at ease at home and at work. “Everybody I associate with is Republican,” he said. “Everybody at work, the hardworking kind, we’re all Republican.”

Characteristics of places Democrats were more likely to move to

	Movers who were…
	Dem.	Rep.
Within 5 miles of a college	82%	65%
High racial diversity	62%	43%
Above avg. walkability	44%	18%
Within 5 miles of a Trader Joe’s	31%	10%
Avg. home price above $750k	19%	10%

Characteristics of places Republicans were more likely to move to

	Movers who were…
	Dem.	Rep.
Property tax rate below 0.5%	64%	75%
Within 5 miles of a forest	36%	46%
Rural or a small town	22%	41%
Avg. temperature above 70° F	13%	24%

Somewhere to belong

For a handful of the people interviewed for this article, politics was the impetus.

Erin Thompson, 39, felt out of step as the lone Republican voice among her Seattle friends. Even dating was hard. “You want to find someone who has the same fundamental belief system as you,” she said. Absent that, “It’s just a little isolating.” In 2021, in search of warmer weather and a community more closely matching her worldview, she moved to Gilbert, a conservative Phoenix suburb.

Erin Thompson, a Republican, moved to Arizona after the 2020 election in search of more like-minded people.

Caitlin O’Hara for The New York Times

Romance was also a factor for Andrew Clohessey, 35, who moved to Minneapolis in 2021 from Cedar Falls, Iowa. He’d spent the previous year deliberately applying for jobs in liberal cities, eager to get out of an area that felt increasingly conservative to him, even though his precinct voted for Mr. Biden. He moved into a neighborhood with a lot of shops within walking distance, one that Mr. Biden carried by 61 points. “It’s been great,” he said. On dating apps he is now “more likely to match with people who have left-leaning political views.”

Naomi Hattaway in what will be a new house being built for her family in Atlanta.

Audra Melton for The New York Times

In contrast, Naomi Hattaway, 48, said politics “did not register one bit” when she moved for work to Fairburn, Ga., a suburb of Atlanta, from Omaha (after a stop in Florida). An independent who previously registered as a Democrat, she said diversity mattered more to her than party affiliation. She feels more at home as a Black mixed race woman in a city with a large Black population and a diverse local government. “It’s everything,” she said, adding that she is “better off living somewhere I belonged.”

All movers we spoke to felt politically comfortable in their new homes. Upon retiring, Robert LaRoche, 60, moved from Las Vegas to Spring Hill, Fla., about an hour north of Tampa to live closer to family. While the majority of his old neighbors in a precinct that voted for Mr. Biden by 41 points “did not align with our values,” he said, that’s not why he moved, nor was it why he chose his new home. He sees it as a bonus that he gets to live in a precinct that voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 by 26 points.

Mr. LaRoche’s sentiment is shared by more and more Americans — that life is less contentious when the people around you vote the way you do.

“Now I can talk to my neighbors about absolutely anything and not start a big argument,” he said.

Click to comment

Politics

Democrat Tammy Baldwin details recipe for running in a swing state after victory in Trump-won Wisconsin

Published

3 hours ago

November 21, 2024

Press Room

Democrat Tammy Baldwin details recipe for running in a swing state after victory in Trump-won Wisconsin

Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., successfully won re-election in Wisconsin all while President-elect Donald Trump simultaneously flipped the state back to red in the presidential election.

As to how she did it, the Democrat attributes much of her win to her “72-county strategy.” Baldwin made sure during her campaign to traverse the entire state, venturing far from the two large blue enclaves of Milwaukee and Dane counties.

“I think showing up matters, listening matters,” she said in an interview with Fox News Digital. “And so I go, and I really listen and get to know the challenges and aspirations of people all over the state, rural areas, suburban areas, urban areas.”

Baldwin won by a few tens of thousands of votes in the state, clinching victory by roughly the same margin as Trump.

RFK JR’S ABORTION ‘ISSUE’: SENATE GOP PLANS TO SCRUTINIZE TRUMP HHS PICK’S POSITION

Sen. Baldwin was re-elected in Wisconsin as the state also elected Donald Trump. (Reuters/File)

According to her campaign, she did more than 250 events in Wisconsin in 2024 alone. She also hosted several targeted tours during her campaign, including her Dairyland Tour and her Rural Leaders for Tammy Tour.

Further, Baldwin’s campaign microtargeted rural communities to deliver content regarding her agricultural work.

But her rigorous travel is not the only thing that sealed the deal for her. The senator acknowledged that people can go everywhere, but they also need to effectively engage voters in each place they travel to.

One thing she noted is that she’s “had years to earn the trust of Wisconsin voters,” referencing the short few months that the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris had to turn out voters for her in the state.

Baldwin also said she convenes roundtables and forums on relevant issues while she travels in Wisconsin.

“So I’ve done that on, say, the fentanyl and opioid epidemic, bringing together first responders, public health officials, concerned community members to talk about what does the epidemic look like in this community, in this area of the state? What resources do you need? What are your biggest worries?”

INCOMING SENATE DEM ELISSA SLOTKIN TORCHES IDENTITY POLITICS IN 2024 AUTOPSY: ‘GO THE WAY OF THE DODO’

A woman wears a Cheesehead hat with the American flag in Wisconsin. (Reuters/File)

She also held events geared toward agricultural issues, she noted.

Baldwin notably credits, in part, her work on agricultural issues with her re-election win. In early October, Baldwin earned the endorsement of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation Board of Directors, which was a significant achievement for a Democrat in a statewide election.

“They cited a number of different measures that I either championed or actually got into law,” she said.

The senator pointed to her Dairy Business Innovation Act, which provides small grants to various dairy producers and processors.

“I went this past spring to a particular farm that had received one of these grants, and they had also invited several other farmers and processors who had received grants to show me what they were able to do with these grants in order to grow their business and improve their bottom line,” she said.

RICK SCOTT OUTLINES CONSENSUS FOR ‘DRAMATIC CHANGE’ TO SENATE OPERATION IN POST-MCCONNELL ERA

Dairy is a large agricultural industry in Wisconsin. (AP Photo/Charlie Litchfield/File)

The Wisconsin Democrat also pointed to the large manufacturing sector in her state and attributed her push for “buy America” rules in pieces of legislation as helping her win some of those voters.

On whether her campaign is a model for other Democrats, specifically those in swing states, she said, “I think it is something that would be helpful to many public officials.”

Baldwin added that she realized the need to travel Wisconsin to this extent during her first Senate campaign: “I had been in the House of Representatives representing, as you know, seven counties in [the] south-central part of the state. I had to learn Wisconsin as I was running.”

MATT GAETZ ‘WORKING THE PHONES,’ SPEAKING TO GOP SENATORS DESPITE DIFFICULT CONFIRMATION ODDS

Baldwin touted her 72-country strategy. (Reuters/File)

“And so traveling to do that learning was extremely important, being exposed to, you know, the timber industry and the north woods. We didn’t have a big timber industry in the south-central part of the state.”

The Midwestern senator also said this was the first time she heard from Wisconsinites that elected officials hadn’t been spending much time in certain parts of the state.

“One thing I will say that I hear from constituents when I show up is just like, ‘I don’t remember the last time we had a U.S. senator visit our community, and especially not a Democrat,’” she said.

“It’s like, you know, the timber industry folks saying, ‘I don’t think we’ve ever had a senator pay so much attention to us,’” she added.

Julia Johnson is a politics writer for Fox News Digital and Fox Business, leading coverage of the U.S. Senate. She was previously a politics reporter at the Washington Examiner.

Follow Julia’s reporting on X at @JuliaaJohnson_ and send tips to Julia.Johnson@fox.com.

Politics

Graphic details revealed in Monterey sexual assault claim against Pete Hegseth, Trump Cabinet pick

Published

4 hours ago

November 21, 2024

Press Room

Graphic details revealed in Monterey sexual assault claim against Pete Hegseth, Trump Cabinet pick

A woman told Monterey police that Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Defense secretary, took her phone, blocked her from leaving his hotel room and sexually assaulted her, according to a newly released police report.

On Wednesday evening, the Monterey Police Department released a 22-page report revealing graphic details in the 2017 assault claim filed against Hegseth, which did not result in any charges. The report reveals two starkly different narratives about what unfolded during a sexual encounter in his hotel room while the two were attending a Republican women’s conference in the city in October 2017.

The woman, who is referred to as Jane Doe in the report, claimed that she repeatedly told Hegseth “no” during the alleged assault, and that he ejaculated on her stomach and told her to “clean it up” — an incident she said left her with nightmares, according to the report.

Hegseth told police that the pair had consensual intercourse and that he made multiple attempts to ensure she was comfortable during the encounter, according to the report.

His attorney has said that he entered a confidential settlement agreement with his sexual assault accuser for an undisclosed sum.

Hegseth has denied any wrongdoing since the accusation was revealed last week, and the Trump transition has continued to publicly support his nomination.

The recently released report brings more questions to what was already gearing up to be a controversial confirmation process for Hegseth’s nomination as U.S. secretary of Defense. Hegseth, 44, is a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and has been a Fox News host since 2017 and a contributor since 2014.

Hegseth was a keynote speaker at the 2017 Republican women’s conference hosted at the Hyatt Regency Monterey Hotel and Spa.

According to the police report, both Doe and Hegseth told officers that the two of them went with a group to the hotel bar after Hegseth’s speech and an after-party hosted in a hotel suite.

Doe told police that she informed Hegseth she was uncomfortable when he touched her knee at the bar and declined his offer to return to his hotel room. The woman also reported that she observed Hegseth acting inappropriately toward woman at the conference, rubbing them on their legs and giving off a “creeper” vibe, according to the report.

The report contains conflicting information over how intoxicated each of them were. Doe had difficulty remembering some of the nights events and, during a sexual assault exam, later told a nurse that shes believed something might have been slipped into her drink, according to the report.

Doe remembered trying to leave Hegseth’s hotel room and being physically blocked from doing so. She also recalled Hegseth wearing dog tags, ejaculating on her stomach and telling her to “clean it up.” And she remembered saying “no” a lot, according to the report.

Hegseth recalled a very different sequence of events.

He told police that Doe led him to his hotel room, where things progressed between the two of them, according to the report. He told police there was “always” conversation and “always” consensual contact between himself and Doe.

Hegseth recalled Doe displaying early signs of regret following the incident and that she said she would tell her husband she fell asleep on a couch in another hotel room, according to the report.

Four days after the encounter, on Oct. 12, Doe went to a hospital to request a sexual assault forensic exam and brought with her the clothes she was wearing during the alleged assault.

Doe reported experiencing memory loss and nightmares in the aftermath of the sexual encounter, according to the report. An associate of hers also told officers that she had very little energy and would burst into tears out of the blue after the incident, according to the report.

Hegseth is a graduate of Princeton University, and has a graduate degree from Harvard University. He was decorated with two Bronze Stars and a Combat Infantryman Badge for his military service. He left the military after President Biden was elected, saying he’d been ordered to stand down from guard duty at the inauguration after top brass dubbed him an extremist and “white nationalist.”

Politics

Trump-district House Democrat loses Alaska seat to political scion

Published

11 hours ago

November 20, 2024

Press Room

Trump-district House Democrat loses Alaska seat to political scion

Conservative Republican Nick Begich will win a tight race for Alaska’s lone seat in the House of Representatives, according to the Associated Press.

Begich defeated his main rival, Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, the first Native Alaskan in Congress, and one of only five House Democrats currently representing a district won by President-elect Trump in 2020.

The win widens the Republican majority in the House to 219 and 213 for Democrats.

SPEAKER JOHNSON RIPS ‘LACK OF LEADERSHIP’ IN BIDEN ADMIN’S HELENE RESPONSE: ‘ALARMED AND DISAPPOINTED’

Alaska congressional candidates Nick Begich and Rep. Mary Peltola were the top two in the race. (Getty Images)

The GOP candidate is no stranger to politics, having been born into a prominent political family in Alaska – made up of mostly Democrats.

His grandfather, Nick Begich, Sr., was an Alaska congressman, before mysteriously disappearing on a flight and being pronounced dead in 1972. His uncle, Mark Begich, was a U.S. senator for Alaska from 2009 to 2015.

The other two hopefuls in the race were Alaska Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe and Democratic candidate Eric Hafner.

Alaska is one of only two states to use ranked-choice voting in federal elections, something that benefited Peltola in 2022, when Begich and former Gov. Sarah Palin knocked each other out of the running by splitting the Republican vote.

HERITAGE FOUNDATION SUES DHS FOR DOCUMENTS THAT SAY ‘HARRIS’ AND ‘BORDER CZAR’

Rep. Mary Peltola is one of a few House Democrats in a seat won by Trump in 2020. (Getty Images)

Republicans took a lesson from that defeat, however, and instead, coalesced around Begich earlier in the race.

Alaska has just one House seat given its modest population compared to more densely packed states. It is also one of only two states to use ranked-choice voting in its federal elections.

Peltola won her seat in a special election following the sudden death of longtime Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, in 2022.

Young’s daughters and several former staffers endorsed Peltola for re-election in the November race later that year.

CLUB FOR GROWTH POURS $5M INTO TIGHT HOUSE RACES AS GOP BRACES FOR TOUGH ELECTION

Rep. Mary Peltola replaced late Rep. Don Young, who died suddenly in 2022. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

The moderate Democrat has been known to break from her party on certain climate and energy issues, among others.

Begich’s victory is a much-needed win for House Republicans who have fought tooth-and-nail to retain and even expand their majority.

He was added to the House GOP campaign arm’s “Young Guns” list in August of this year, giving him access to National Republican Congressional Committee resources, support, and advisement.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

Elizabeth Elkind is a politics reporter for Fox News Digital leading coverage of the House of Representatives. Previous digital bylines seen at Daily Mail and CBS News.

Follow on Twitter at @liz_elkind and send tips to elizabeth.elkind@fox.com