Milley’s new Ukraine war prediction is stark departure from early forecast of ’72 hour’ takeover

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Workers Gen. Mark Milley predicted in early February {that a} Russian invasion of Ukraine may take Kyiv in simply “72 hours,” a far cry from the monthlong battle Russia and Ukraine are actually engaged in.

Milley delivered the dire prediction for Ukraine to Congress throughout closed hearings on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3, saying Ukraine would doubtless lose 15,000 troops in comparison with Russia’s 4,000. Milley arrived to Congress to ship one other prediction Tuesday, this time saying the struggle in Ukraine may final “years.”

Rep. Invoice Keating, D-Mass., pressed Milley on what he now thought the timeline of the battle can be.

“It’s a bit early, nonetheless,” Milley responded. “Regardless that we’re a month-plus into the struggle, there’s a lot of the bottom struggle left in Ukraine. However I do suppose it is a very protracted battle, and I feel it’s at the least measured in years. I don’t find out about a decade, however at the least years for positive.”

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Milley made the revised prediction throughout testimony earlier than the Home Armed Companies committee. Members of Congress pressed Milley on what the U.S. may have completed to discourage Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine.

“Candidly, in need of the dedication of U.S. forces into Ukraine correct, I’m not positive he was deterrable,” Milley testified. 

“This has been a long-term goal of his that goes again years,” he added. “I feel the thought of deterring Putin from invading Ukraine — deterring him by the US — would have required the usage of US navy forces and would have risked armed battle with Russia, which I wouldn’t advise.”

Folks watch as smoke rises within the air after shelling in Odesa, Ukraine, Sunday, April 3, 2022. 
(AP Picture/Petros Giannakouris)

The off-base predictions echo the inaccuracy of the predictions from President Biden’s administration forward of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan final yr. Two days earlier than Kabul fell to the Taliban, administration officers had been predicting that Afghan safety forces would fend off the extremist group till at the least late fall 2021.

“So the query now could be, the place do they go from right here? The jury continues to be out.  However the chance there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning every thing and proudly owning the entire nation is very unlikely,” Biden said July 8, a month earlier than Kabul fell.