If Putin wants to remake the Soviet Union, what country would Russia target next?

“I’ve learn most of every thing he’s written,” President Biden stated of Russian President Vladimir Putin final week. “He has a lot bigger ambitions in Ukraine. He needs to, in reality, reestablish the previous Soviet Union. That’s what that is about.”

Many specialists imagine that Biden is true. In an usually cited and maybe extremely revealing remark years in the past, Putin stated that he believed the autumn of the Soviet Union was the best geopolitical tragedy of the twentieth century. 

Putin presently has his fingers full with a stronger-than-expected resistance to his conflict on Ukraine – together with at residence – although his huge army is anticipated to finally prevail. Most imagine, nevertheless, that it isn’t a matter of if, however somewhat when and the place, the Russian president begins pressuring, coercing or attacking different nations as he tries to reconstitute one thing akin to the Soviet Union.

The Baltics

Many are retaining one eye on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as Putin wages his conflict on Ukraine. That is as a result of the three Baltic States sit sandwiched between Russia, its shut ally Belarus, the Baltic Sea and the Russian territory of Kaliningrad. 

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As a result of all three nations are NATO members, it isn’t anticipated that Putin would take bodily aggressive motion towards them, in accordance Penn State professor emerita of political science Donna Bahry. 

“The Baltics are weak, however a direct Russian army strike towards NATO nations appears unlikely for now,” Bahry informed Fox Information Digital. “That doesn’t rule out Russian efforts comparable to cyberattacks and different covert actions. In actual fact, all three Baltic nations have skilled cyberattacks from Russia for some years.”

Former Protection Intelligence Company officer Rebekah Koffler additionally informed Fox Information Digital {that a} army assault is very unlikely. However she stated Putin could hit the Baltics with “non-kinetic actions” that might embrace not solely cyberattacks however digital warfare, “any form of destabilization like covert ops,” and even staging a protest.

“He’s not gonna go along with army operations or any form of kinetic motion towards any NATO nation such because the Baltics,” she stated. “However because the battle escalates, and particularly if he is on the shedding facet, I totally anticipate him to ratchet up non-kinetic actions.”

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R Avenue Institute Cybersecurity and Rising Threats Director Tatyana Bolton, in the meantime, informed Fox Information Digital that whereas Putin’s timeline is probably not fast, she believes Putin needs to finally achieve management of the Baltics. She stated the West ought to do every thing in its energy to salvage Ukraine, which she stated could be key to deterring any future Putin assault on the Baltics. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin throughout a information convention within the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. 
(Yuri Kochetkov/Pool Photograph by way of AP)

“This might take months or years, however I feel that is precisely what he is making an attempt to do. He is making an attempt to take one piece at a time to reassemble what he believes was the best nation on this planet,” Bolton stated. 

Koffler additionally stated it is extremely unlikely Russia would take kinetic motion quickly towards different NATO members or some other “actually Western nation.” This would come with, she stated, non-NATO members Finland and Sweden, regardless of hypothesis about Putin’s curiosity within the Swedish island of Gotland. 

Different post-Soviet states 

Romania and Georgia could face a extra fast menace than the Baltics, Bahry and Koffler stated. 

Any space the place the Russians have their quote-unquote peacekeeping forces… or something that has disputed territory [is vulnerable].

— Former Protection Intelligence Company officer Rebekah Koffler

“Will Putin now transfer shortly towards different post-Soviet states? Extra army assaults on different post-Soviet nations appear unlikely for now,” Bahry stated. “However Putin might ramp up stress on the nations with nearer ties to the EU, comparable to Moldova and Georgia — for instance, by recognizing the independence of Transnistria or annexing South Ossetia.”

Koffler stated these former Soviet states are certainly “weak,” as a result of they don’t seem to be in NATO and since they’ve disputed territory.

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“Positively a menace to Moldova,” Koffler stated. “Any space the place the Russians have their quote-unquote peacekeeping forces… or something that has disputed territory comparable to Transnistria in Moldova, comparable to Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.”

Koffler stated these areas “may very well be on the goal record, together with on this section of the operation, particularly if he’s perceiving that he is on the shedding facet.” What might maintain Putin again from going after these areas, Koffler stated, is the very fact a lot of his army is preoccupied in Ukraine for now. 

The boundaries of the previous Soviet Union are proven on a map. Former Protection Intelligence Company officer Rebekah Koffler stated any former Soviet state that is not in NATO is weak to Russian motion proper now. 
(Fox Information)

What the West can do

Even though kinetic motion is unlikely, Koffler stated it’s nonetheless crucial to “shore up” the Baltics with Western troops. However she stated that should be carried out rigorously “in order that Putin does not interpret our actions as offensive as an alternative of defensive… Keep in mind, he is paranoid.” 

Retired CIA station chief Dan Hoffman additionally acknowledged the difficulty with the notion of NATO build up troops within the Baltics. He stated a buildup of Western forces in these three states bordering Russia would feed into the “enemy on the gates” propaganda Putin makes use of on his individuals. However, Hoffman stated, it is nonetheless crucial to extend the western army presence within the Baltics. 

“Even when there’s a 2% likelihood Putin invades Estonia, you higher be there and prepared with an entire lot of troops or else that’s 100% of you getting your a– kicked,” he stated.

Bahry stated “NATO would have problem countering a direct Russian strike on the Baltics proper now,” however that the SWIFT sanctions the West is imposing are “a giant step.” In the long run, Bahry stated, power independence often is the West’s greatest transfer to counter Russia. 

“European nations must be diversifying each the categories and provides of power they use, to scale back dependence on Russian gasoline exports,” she stated. “That’s not simply an power safety difficulty for Europe. It’s additionally a method to scale back the stream of income going to the Russian authorities and its army.”