Poll: Most young Vermonters say they’re likely to leave state amid affordability concerns – VTDigger

Theo Wells-Spackman is a Report for America corps member who reports for VTDigger.

Nearly two-thirds of Vermonters ages 18 to 34 say they’re likely to leave the state within five years in search of adventure or a cheaper place to live, according to a poll from the University of New Hampshire.  

Overall, the poll estimated that 86% of Vermonters find the state at least somewhat unaffordable.

“The issue of affordability has been a very important thing across New England,” said UNH political science professor Andrew Smith, who runs the institution’s survey center. The poll, released Tuesday, includes response data for five New England states, excluding Maine.

In general, the survey found, most residents say Vermont is a good place to live — or even a great one.

Nevertheless, about 40% of Vermonters of all ages want to leave the state, according to the report from Smith’s team. Housing prices and other cost-of-living concerns are the foremost drivers of the trend, researchers found, followed by tax rates. Connecticut and Rhode Island showed similar overall rates of desired departure.

Among young people, though, Vermont’s numbers stand out.

Smith’s research found that 63% percent of Vermonters between 18 and 34 say they’re somewhat or very likely to move out of the state in the next five years. That’s a much higher rate of planned departure than in any other state surveyed. Responses varied from 28% in New Hampshire to 44% in Connecticut. 

But according to Smith, New England often sees a beneficial “boomerang effect”: former residents eventually returning to their home states, often as higher earners.

In a Wednesday press conference, Gov. Phil Scott said that although he hadn’t seen the poll, he wasn’t surprised by reports that many Vermonters are considering a move.

“I think there’s a lot of frustration out there,” he said. “We have a lot of work to do to make Vermont the affordable state that these folks need.”

About half of young Vermonters who said they want to move away cited the cost of living as a primary reason, while roughly as many said they were looking for a “new adventure or more excitement.” By contrast, less than a quarter of those older than 64 foresee leaving, according to the poll. 

Outmigration of young people could worsen the state’s existing workforce shortage, according to Kevin Chu, who leads the research nonprofit the Vermont Futures Project. Scott’s administration has made workforce development a priority in light of what his office called a “growing demographic crisis.”

Chu added that by design, services such as public education and healthcare are supported disproportionately by working households that tend to pay higher taxes and insurance premiums. When the base of income earners shrinks, the problem can then intensify for those bearing the brunt of rising costs, he added.

“There’s a demographic reality in which the economic burden is being shouldered by a small and shrinking pool of young working-age people,” Chu said.

Tuesday’s poll also indicated that Vermonters who have completed more education say they’re less likely to leave the state. For Chu, that’s likely because such households tend to earn more — and also because they tend to be older.

Julie Lowell, deputy director of the Montpelier research nonprofit Public Assets Institute, offered a grain of salt in relation to Tuesday’s report. While migration is crucial to keep track of, Vermont’s overall population turnover tends to be about 5% or less each year, she said. And although the state does have an unusual number of young people intending to leave, that age group is always the most mobile in any study, she said.

In recent years, more of Vermont’s older population has possessed more wealth to contribute to public services, Lowell added. For example, she said, her organization has found that more Vermonters aging out of the workforce has not appeared to decrease state tax revenues in recent years. 

But it’s true that many Vermonters are struggling to make ends meet, she said. The state’s lowest earners have seen low wage growth in relation to other New England states, she said, and basic needs are getting harder to cover.

“We’re seeing prices, in large part driven by housing and healthcare, really outpacing our increases in household incomes,” Lowell said. “Many people are feeling insecure.”