Pittsburg, PA
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-15-2024
We’ve made it through the regular season and for 18 teams, their year is over. For 14 teams with hopes of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, their dream lives on, at least for another week. Twelve of those teams play this weekend with the winner moving on and the loser going home for the offseason. In an AFC Wild Card Round matchup, the Pittsburgh Steelers take the short trip to take on the Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh finished their regular season slate with a 17-10 road win over Baltimore last Saturday, covering the line as a three-point favorite. Buffalo downed Miami 21-14 on the road last Sunday, covering the line as a 2.5-point favorite. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Steelers own a 15-11 edge though the Bills rolled to a 38-3 home win in the most recent meeting on October 9, 2022. They have met in the postseason three times with the Steelers owning a 2-1 edge, though they haven’t met in the playoffs since 1996.
(This game has been moved to Monday at 4:30pmET due to weather conditions in Buffalo)
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Pittsburgh Steelers Looking to Maintain Late Season Charge
Pittsburgh won three straight to close the regular season and earned a playoff spot by beating Baltimore, coupled by Jacksonville losing to Tennessee. The Steelers finished the regular season 10-7 overall and look to earn the road upset here. Against Baltimore, Pittsburgh overcame wintry conditions and took advantage of the fact that the Ravens sat a majority of their starters to earn a victory. The Steelers led 7-0 after the opening quarter, were even at the half and after three quarters. Pittsburgh took the lead for good on the first play of the fourth quarter on a 71-yard touchdown pass to Diontae Johnson and went on to the victory. The Steelers owned a 289-224 edge in total offense, held a 16-13 advantage in first downs and controlled the clock by a 34:04 to 25:56 margin. Each team turned the ball over twice in the game.
TAE TIME @Juiceup__3
📺: #PITvsBUF 1/14 at 1 PM ET on CBS pic.twitter.com/E6eVZ9nz4M
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) January 8, 2024
The Steelers finished the regular season 25th in the league in passing offense as they average 186.1 yards per game through the air. The team is 13th in the league in rushing offense as they put up an average of 118.2 yards per contest. Pittsburgh is 28th in the league in scoring offense with 17.9 points per contest and 6th in scoring defense as they allow 19.1 points per game. Kenny Pickett is 201 of 324 passing for 2,070 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions on the year. He contributes 54 yards and a score on the ground. Mitch Trubisky is 67 of 107 for 632 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions in limited action. Mason Rudolph is 55 of 74 for 719 yards with three scores. Najee Harris leads the team on the ground with 255 carries for 1,035 yards plus eight scores. Jaylen Warren (149 carries, 784 yards, four TD) is the #2 back in the ground game this season. Diontae Johnson has 51 receptions totaling 717 yards and five scores on the season, putting him third on the team. George Pickens (63 catches, 1140 yards, five TD), Pat Freiermuth (32 grabs, 308 yards, two TD), Allen Robinson II (34 catches, 280 yards), Calvin Austin III (17 grabs, 180 yards, TD) and Warren (61 receptions, 370 yards) have been active as well. Chris Boswell has hit 27 of 28 extra point attempts and 29 of 31 field goal attempts this season with a long of 57 on the year.
Pittsburgh’s biggest injury is T.J. Watt (knee), who led the league with 19 sacks. He sprained his MCL against the Ravens and is out here.
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Buffalo Bills Shoot to Keep Rolling
Buffalo won their final five games in the regular season, all coming after their bye in week 13, and their triumph over Miami on the road last week gave them the AFC East crown for the fourth straight season. The Bills finished the regular season 11-6 and look to carry that momentum to the postseason. Against Miami, Buffalo had their struggles finishing drives but made the plays in all three phases of the game in crunch time to earn the victory. The Bills trailed 14-7 at the half and after three quarters before Deonte Harty’s franchise-record 96-yard punt return for a score tied the game early in the fourth quarter. Buffalo forced a three-and-out, then went down the field again, capped by a five-yard touchdown pass to Dawson Knox, to take the lead with 7:16 to play. The Bills’ defense held from there, forcing another three-and-out, followed by Taylor Rapp’s interception with 1:13 to play, which allowed them to run out the clock. Buffalo rolled up a massive 473-275 edge in total offense, picked up a 26-16 advantage in first downs and dominated time of possession by a 38:07 to 21:53 margin. Those numbers helped overshadow the fact that they turned the ball over three times while forcing two takeaways.
LET’S GO, @tayynation1‼️
📺: @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/DBOCwnG1ey
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 8, 2024
On the year, the Bills are eighth in the league in passing offense with an average of 244.4 yards per game and 7th in rushing with an average of 130.1 yards per contest. Buffalo is sixth in the league in scoring offense by putting up 26.5 points per contest and they are fourth in the league in scoring defense by allowing 18.3 points per game. Josh Allen is 385 of 579 passing for 4,306 yards with 29 touchdowns and 18 interceptions on the season. He is second on the team on the ground with 524 rushing yards and 15 scores. James Cook leads the run game with 237 carries for 1,122 yards and two scores. Latavius Murray (79 carries, 300 yards, three TD) and Ty Johnson (30 carries, 132 yards) have also seen work on the ground. Stefon Diggs is the team’s top receiver as he has hauled in 107 passes for 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns. Gabe Davis (45 catches, 746 yards, seven TD), Cook (44 receptions, 445 yards, four TD), Dalton Kincaid (73 grabs, 673 yards, two TD) and Khalil Shakir (39 grabs, 611 yards, two TD) are each over the 400-yard mark in receiving yards. Tyler Bass is 49 of 50 on extra point attempts and 24 of 29 on field goal attempts with a long of 54 this season.
Buffalo has several names to monitor going through the rest of the week on the injury report. Safety Taylor Rapp (calf), defensive ends Leonard Floyd (rest) and Von Miller (rest), cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee) and wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) all didn’t practice Wednesday. Tackle Dion Dawkins (hand), running back Ty Johnson (concussion) and linebacker Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) were each limited. Watch for updates over the coming days for new information.
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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These teams have some similarities when you look at them. Both teams fired their offensive coordinators during the season. Each side closed the season on a win streak with Pittsburgh winning three straight games while Buffalo won five in a row. The Steelers have their work cut out for them here, especially without Watt. He’s a disruptor and a force to be reckoned with that has to be accounted for on every play. Without him, the Steelers have to try and regroup defensively, which is a challenge. Rudolph has been solid after taking over the QB role down the stretch but he’s making his first postseason start here. Allen, through the good and the bad, has been here before. That, with the home field advantage of the Bills Mafia, helps Buffalo advance to the divisional round.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills -9.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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Pittsburgh has stayed under the total in 11 of their 17 games on the year. Six of the Steelers’ eight road games this season have wound up under the number. Buffalo has seen the under go 11-6 in their 17 games on the year. The Bills have stayed under the total in five of their eight home games on the year, including five of their last six contests at Highmark Stadium. Weather could be a major factor with lake effect snow and winds upward of 20 miles per hour wreaking havoc. Those factors have driven the number down substantially and it might be a little too low here. Look for this game to wind up over the number.
Prediction: Over 35