Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has never explicitly said he is interested in running for president.

He has not ruled it out either.

The former state attorney general on Tuesday night won the Democratic Party’s nomination for a second term, the first step toward a victory in November, when he is the clear favorite according to recent polling and projections from major forecasters. For Shapiro, a battleground-state victory, particularly by sizable margins, could prove to be a compelling opening argument for a 2028 presidential bid. 

“The bottom line is Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state,” said Adrienne Elrod, a Democratic strategist who worked on former Vice President Kamala Harris’s 2024 campaign. “The fact that he has been able to be a really strong, bipartisan, effective governor in that state says a lot about his capabilities.”

A Susquehanna Polling & Research survey in mid-March found Shapiro leading his GOP opponent, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, by a 22-point margin. He had near-total backing from Democrats, undecided voters leaned in his direction and he even won the support of 18% of Republicans. 

Berwood Yost, a longtime pollster at Franklin & Marshall College, noted that Shapiro is the most popular governor in Pennsylvania in more than two decades, though incumbents in the state routinely win re-election, sometimes by double digits.

For now, the governor says he is focused on his re-election bid, boosting Democrats in competitive House races and achieving a rare “trifecta” of Democratic control of state government. Republicans have controlled Pennsylvania’s state Senate since 1994, making a Democratic sweep of the statehouse a tall order. Even so, some political observers believe Democrats have a chance to flip the chamber this year.

If Democrats flip the Senate, it could add “a layer of credibility to his candidacy should he run” for president, Yost said. “That’s a real credential that might make people think: ‘Well, look, this is a person who can win in the kind of places where we need to win,’” he said, citing the purple, Trump-Biden-Trump states of Wisconsin and Michigan. “People also like winners.”

Shapiro would still have to overcome significant hurdles to win the Democratic presidential nomination, such as having low national name recognition and pressure from the party’s progressive wing. He remains in the single digits in most early polls of Democratic voters in a hypothetical 2028 primary field.

In 2028, “Shapiro would be a very strong general election candidate for the Democrats,” said former Rep. Charlie Dent, a Republican who endorsed Shapiro in 2022. “His challenge will be the primary.”

Although he has avoided labels, Shapiro is widely considered a centrist. Criticism lobbed against him from progressives during his brief stint on Harris’ vice-presidential shortlist could resurface if he made a national campaign — including his support for Israel and for private-school vouchers.

Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, told MS NOW that Democratic voters are looking for “an outsider moment” in the next presidential race, pointing to the surging candidacies of figures including James Talarico in Texas and Graham Platner in Maine.

“I don’t know what the Josh Shapiro story is,” said Green. “It doesn’t seem like having five years in the governorship and then beginning from square one to tell a story to a national audience is lined up for success.”

Shapiro’s allies counter that his communications skills, approval ratings and his executive experience set him apart from a field heavy on legislators. They also say he is agile in front of reporters and in the face of tough questions.

Shapiro would also have to court prominent donors and secure endorsements in what is likely to be a crowded field. Over the years, prominent billionaire donors, including former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman — have given to his state campaigns.

Senator Tommy Tuberville, widely favored to easily clear his primary and win the election to become Alabama’s next governor, just cast his vote at a church in Auburn. Tuberville, a football coach at Auburn University before he turned to politics, used football metaphors to illustrate his vision for the state. “It’s gonna be SEC recruiting all over again. I’ll be recruiting against Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana for manufacturing to come back to the state,” he said.