Where is it going to snow? One model says part of New Jersey could still get a foot

A massive winter storm has its sights set on New Jersey this week, and while its impact could be a mere nuisance, one weather model shows it could drop significant snowfall for some.

The storm system, which has triggered winter storm warnings across the nation as far south as Nashville, Tennessee — likely the biggest snow event there since 2021 — will reach New Jersey heading into Thursday.

While anywhere from a few inches to a trace are predicted across portions of the Garden State, any wiggle north and west, and residents may need to break out the snow blowers.

What area could see more than a foot of snow? Are some areas in New Jersey not getting any snow? Find out the latest predictions below.

Is it going to snow in New Jersey this week?

Yes, snow is expected to fall over a portion of the state, mainly to the south, late Wednesday night and into Thursday. The greatest impact will be in extreme southeast New Jersey.

On Tuesday, the storm system was wreaking havoc in the Central Plains, with winter storm warnings popping up from Kansas toward North Carolina. A Winter Storm Watch for portions of Delaware were issued by NOAA early Tuesday morning.

How much snow will New Jersey get on Thursday?

Areas in the southeastern portion of New Jersey — from Atlantic City south to Cape May — are expected to see the greatest snowfall totals, although a lot is still unknown.

“How much snow falls on the mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England will depend on the track and strength of the storm,” AccuWeather said on Tuesday.

In its latest weather briefing on Tuesday, multiple models continued to indicate “a slightly southern shift” in the storm, meaning a bulk of the snow will fall further south, with minimal snow accumulations for the majority of New Jersey.

Cape May was expected to see the most snow with anywhere between an inch and three inches, although the range shows the potential of up to five inches. Areas to the north along the coast, such as Atlantic City, may see up to three inches — although an inch is probable.

An inch or less is expected to fall across the rest of the state, including Central Jersey and far north into Sussex County, according to NOAA.

The lone exception to the predicted reduced snow totals? The North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), according to NOAA.

A foot of snow in NJ? NAM model predicts snow storm totals

The North American Mesoscale Forecast System, or NAM, is one of several regional weather forecast models that cover the United States and was developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Meteorologists looks at several weather model systems, with the forecast data from the NAM higher resolution than the American (GFS) and European model (ECMWF) and are shorter-term.

At 7 a.m. on Tuesday, the latest update available, the NAM model showed the potential of up to 12.5 inches of snow in areas of southern New Jersey through Friday, the maps on Pivotal Weather showed. Areas from Central Jersey and south were showing widespread accumulations anywhere from six to nine inches, with North Jersey seeing anywhere from an inch to just over three inches.

All other models show the storm trending south and east of New Jersey, with minor impact on the Garden State.

Lori Comstock is a New Jersey-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team.