A tight race faces Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli in their bids to become New Jersey governor next week, according to polls.

Sherrill holds a lead among young voters, a traditional Democratic group that shifted rightward in last year’s presidential race, recent surveys suggest.

Newsweek reached out to the Ciattarelli and Sherrill campaigns for comment via email.

Why It Matters

The New Jersey gubernatorial race is a key bellwether for the mood of the electorate ahead of the 2026 midterms, when Democrats will be hoping to flip seats across the country in a 2018-style “blue wave.”

The election will be a test for Democrats’ efforts to win back support where President Donald Trump gained ground in last year’s presidential race. Gen Z is one group that swung toward Trump last year. They backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 11 points last year, a much tighter margin than former President Joe Biden’s 24-point margin among Gen Z four years earlier.

Sherrill will be seeking to win back those voters in New Jersey, a state that also drifted toward competitiveness. It backed Harris by only about six points, down from Biden’s 16-point victory in the Garden State in 2020.

What to Know

Polling suggests that Sherrill holds a slight—but not insurmountable—lead over Ciattarelli in the final days of the campaign. The data points to a closer race than in 2021, when Ciattarelli nearly defeated incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, overperforming his polling numbers.

Sherrill is also winning over Gen Z voters, according to polls.

A Fox News poll showed 60 percent of voters under 30 are backing Sherrill, while only 33 percent are voting for Ciattarelli. Two percent said they’d vote for someone else, and five percent of the 1,002 voters surveyed from October 10 to October 14 said they were unsure.

A co/efficient poll similarly found the 53-year-old former federal prosecutor with a lead among Gen Z voters. Sherrill led voters between the ages of 18 and 34 by 26 points (57 percent to 31 percent). It polled 995 likely voters from October 23 to October 27, 2025 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.27 percentage points.

An Emerson College poll also showed Sherrill leading voters between the ages of 18 and 29 by 38 points (56 points to 18 points), though that poll notably found a higher percentage were still undecided (15 percent) or voting for someone else (11 percent). It surveyed 935 likely voters from September 22 to September 23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for all voters.

A Rutgers University poll showed a more competitive race to win over Gen Z voters. In that survey, Sherrill led by only six points (49 percent to 43 percent). It surveyed 795 likely voters from October 3 to October 17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.

Joseph Patten, Professor of Political Science at Monmouth University, told Newsweek that Gen Z is a critical voting bloc for Democrats.

“When young people are energized and mobilized, it typically fares well for Democratic candidates. When they’re not, when they’re down in the dumps, that’s typically a bad sign for Democratic candidates,” he said. “So we’ll see where they are in 2025.”

He pointed to the 2020 election, when Biden defeated Trump, as an example of Gen Z proving to be one of the most important groups who decided the outcome of the election. Their rightward shift was largely due to a drop off in voting numbers from 2020 to 2024, he said.

In 2020, Gen Z turnout in New Jersey was about 67 percent. In 2024, that number was 54 percent—still higher than the national average of 47 percent, Patten said. The youth vote in New Jersey also skews more diverse, as about 56 percent of students in New Jersey schools are non-white, he said.

There’s also a notable gender gap between young men and young women, he said.

“Young women are much more likely to be liberal, and young men are more inclined to be more conservative,” he said. “There’s also a gender gap in turnout. Young women vote by nine percentage points higher than young men.”

Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, told Newsweek that the election is a “departure from last year,” when Gen Z voters shifted to Trump.

“Those voters are still out there. They’re still partisan. There’s no question about that. But as a bloc, as a distinct voting group or as a generation, I think there is a reappraisal,” he said. “Have they gotten what they bargained for? Is the federal government that we’ve gotten so far what our youngest voters voted for?”

On the Republican side, the assassination of conservative pundit Charlie Kirk has been a “rallying point” for young voters, he said. There is a sense of “let’s do thus for Charlie” that could benefit the Ciattarelli campaign with more partisan voters. That will not necessarily appeal to those young voters who are less engaged and partisan, he said.

Democrats don’t have that same “inflection,” but the Sherrill campaign has also been working to engage younger supporters by having them write postcards or make phone calls, he said.

There is unlikely to be “the same level of engagement” in the race as a presidential contest, he said. There are certainly younger voters who are engaged—but it is unlikely to be as widespread, he added.

How Does Gen Z Polling Compare to 2021?

There were no exit polls conducted in New Jersey for the last governor’s race in 2021. In that race, Murphy won by just over three percentage points (51 percent to 48 percent), but it’s unclear exactly what percentage of Gen Z voters he ended up winning.

But an Emerson College poll from October 2021 showed that Murphy was on track to win Gen Z by nearly 16 points (58 percent to 42 percent). Meanwhile, a Monmouth University poll, which ended up overestimating Murphy’s support by a larger margin, found that he was on track to win Gen Z voters by 25 points (56 percent to 31 percent).

Whether or not polling overestimates Sherrill’s support as it did for Murphy in the last gubernatorial race is a key question facing pollsters ahead of Election Day. Many Republicans believe the support for 63-year-old businessman Ciattarelli, who missed out in the previous gubernatorial race, has been undercounted in polls.

Historically, younger voters do turn out at lower rates than older voters, and it’s yet to be seen which candidate does a better job at mobilizing their youngest supporters before next week’s election.

What People Are Saying

Sherrill wrote Monday on X: “Donald Trump’s global extortion racket is lining his pockets and costing New Jerseyans more at the register. Not on my watch—as governor, I’m going to work with our Attorney General to defend New Jerseyans against Washington’s reckless tariffs.”

Ciattarelli wrote Monday on X: “This campaign is about change. It’s about restoring hope for New Jersey’s future. Hope for families struggling to afford to stay here, seniors struggling to retire here. Hope for safer communities, better schools, and a government that finally puts you first.”

What Happens Next

Early voting has been underway, and Election Day is set for November 4. Forecasters give Sherrill an advantage—both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as Leans Democratic.