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What the Polls Say Today: Trump Poised to Win New Hampshire Handily

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What the Polls Say Today: Trump Poised to Win New Hampshire Handily


Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photo: Getty Images

Since late last year, Republicans (and Americans generally) who were unhappy with the prospect of a Donald Trump comeback have been focused on the New Hampshire primary as the first and perhaps the last real chance for any rival to trip him up on the path to a third consecutive presidential nomination. That’s because the Granite State is uniquely ill-suited for Trump, thanks to its low number of evangelicals, relatively high number of college-educated Republicans, and a primary system that allows independents to fully participate. Plus, Nikki Haley, backed by popular lame-duck governor Chris Sununu, was slowly gaining strength in the polls there.

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As the January 23 primary grows nigh, however, the former South Carolina governor’s momentum has clearly stalled, though she is in a head-to-head contest with Trump now that Ron DeSantis has exited the race. That means the 45th president in a strong position to supplement his landslide win in the Iowa Caucuses with a potentially decisive (if less overwhelming) victory in New Hampshire.

As in Iowa, observers will closely watch whether the front-runner wins a majority of the vote as a way of assessing whether there is some theoretical anti-Trump majority in the primary electorate somewhere in America. In the RealClearPolitics polling averages for New Hampshire right now, Trump has 54.3 percent of the vote as compared to 36.8 percent for Haley. His 17.5 percent lead in the averages is up from 13.2 percent the day after Iowa, indicating that the cumulative effect of his win in the caucuses and the withdrawal of Chris Christie on January 11 and Vivek Ramaswamy on January 15 has been to modestly increase his support. Most of the polls were taken before DeSantis dropped out and endorsed Trump on January 21, but second-choice preferences suggest that will help the former president a bit (DeSantis was mired in the mid–single digits in New Hampshire before withdrawing) as well. One data source helpful in assessing the trends is the Boston Globe-Suffolk daily tracking poll, which has shown Trump’s lead steady at 17 to 19 percent for the last four days.

The internal dynamics of the Trump-Haley race are clear from multiple surveys: He’s winning overwhelmingly among registered Republicans, particularly the more conservative among them, while Haley is actually winning the independent vote, which is expected (unless all the talk of Trump’s lead discourages some of them from voting) to represent nearly half of the primary turnout. For example, a St. Anselm College survey on January 16 showed Trump winning 65 percent of registered Republicans while Haley had 52 percent of registered independents. Similarly, a January 20 Washington Post-Monmouth poll gave Trump 64 percent of registered Republicans and Haley 48 percent (a ten-point plurality) among registered independents. Trump was drawing 77 percent of “very conservative” voters in the St. Anselm poll and 78 percent in the WaPo-Monmouth survey.

Polls have also consistently shown Trump with more committed and enthusiastic New Hampshire reporters than Haley, though there are some signs Haley’s support is firming up: the WaPo-Monmouth survey showed 85 percent of Trump voters “definitely” supporting the former president as compared to 69 percent of Haley voters with minds made up. There just aren’t any real signs of late momentum for Haley of a dimension that would signify a big upset (for which New Hampshire is famous) is in the offing. Indeed, there’s a lot of talk of this being an unusually stable — even boring — first-in-the-nation primary. But as they say in sports, we don’t know for sure, and that’s why they play the games.

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New Hampshire

Masked men with baseball bats terrorize 12-year-old during NH home invasion

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Masked men with baseball bats terrorize 12-year-old during NH home invasion


Two people are facing charges after they allegedly broke into a New Hampshire home on Tuesday wearing black masks and armed with baseball bats, all while a 12-year-old was inside.

Danville police said they received a call around 9 p.m. Tuesday for a report of a home invasion on Beatrice Street. A 12-year-old was home alone on a video chat with his friend when three people wearing black masks and armed with baseball bats broke through his front door. The 12-year-old’s friend quickly called 911.

According to police, the three people were attempting to locate the child’s father and threatened the father with serious bodily injury.

An officer soon arrived at the scene, set a perimeter, and called in two K9 units.

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A search of the area didn’t initially turn up anything, but a K9 track led officers to another nearby home. Police interviewed the resident of the mobile home, identified as Nathan Wilder, who denied any involvement in the home invasion.

As the investigation continued, police learned that the original caller had heard from some other friends that one of the suspects in the home invasion had bragged about being involved. They determined that Nathan Wilder, John Wilder and a juvenile were the three people who had broken into the home.

John Wilder admitted to police that he had broken into the home on Beatrice Street and said that Nathan Wilder and a juvenile had assisted him.

Police were able to locate and seized three baseball bats, two ski masks and a few articles of clothing used in the crime.

John and Nathan Wilder were arrested and the juvenile who was involved was released to a parent.

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John Wilder is charged with burglary with a weapon, criminal threat with a deadly weapon and criminal mischief. Nathan Wilder is charged with with burglary with a weapon and criminal threat with a deadly weapon. Both men are currently being held at the Rockingham County Jail awaiting arraignment.



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Former NH legislator sentenced to decades behind bars for exploitation of toddlers

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Former NH legislator sentenced to decades behind bars for exploitation of toddlers


A former New Hampshire state representative was sentenced to more than 33 years in prison for involvement in a child exploitation case — almost double the mandatory minimum.

Stacie Marie Laughton, 42, pleaded guilty to three counts of sexual exploitation of children after soliciting and receiving nude photos of three toddlers from an ex-girlfriend who worked at a daycare.

Lindsay Groves, 41, of Hudson, N.H., was sentenced to almost 22 years in prison earlier this month after pleading guilty to the same charges as well as an additional count of distribution of child pornography.

According to court documents, Groves took the photos of the victims in 2023 at Creative Minds daycare in Tyngsboro, where she was a teacher, during designated bathroom breaks and nap times.

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She then sent the photos to Laughton, who requested the images and asked that Grove touch one of the minor’s genitals. In the conversation included in the records, the pair sexualizes the victims.

“Did the girl give you an issue,” Laughton texted after receiving the photos.

“No… the boy didn’t either,” Groves texted back.

In a sentencing memorandum, Laughton’s counsel had argued that she should receive a shorter sentence than Groves and asked for the minimum mandatory sentence, which would have 15 years for each count to be served concurrently.

“Stacie Laughton is a complex 42-year-old woman,” the memo said, noting that she was the first openly transgender woman to be elected to the New Hampshire legislature.

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The filing described Laughton’s history of mental health, substance abuse, sexual abuse, and trauma as mitigating factors the judge should consider.

“One of the few consistencies in Ms. Laughton’s life is her challenges with mental health illnesses,” the memo said. “She began receiving mental health treatment at the age of four and has been in and out of extensive treatment programs ever since.”

The death of Laughton’s wife in 2020 and a tumultuous relationship with Groves also added to her mental health struggles, the memo said, stating that the defendant drank every day and had tried heroin for the first time leading up to her arrest.

A doctor quoted in the filing said that Laughton likely had a low IQ, tied in part to her premature birth, as well as “normal sexual interests.”

“This finding shows both how caught up Ms. Laughton was in her relationship with Groves that she participated in activity counter to this and is … an important factor in considering whether Ms. Laughton would be a future threat upon release,” the memo said.

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The filing described Laughton’s actions as “horrendous, reprehensible, and shocking,” but said that even though the crimes were “utterly inexcusable,” she should still receive a shorter sentence than her codefendant out of a sense of justice.

However, in their own sentencing memo, federal prosecutors requested Laughton receive 40 years in prison.

“These crimes only came to light when Laughton reported them in an apparent attempt to punish Groves for ending their relationship,” prosecutors wrote. “The defendant, of course, did not disclose her own role in the creation of the imagery.”

“She ultimately admitted that she told Groves to touch one child’s penis, and claimed that she was feeding Groves’s attraction to children,” their memo said.

The prosecutors said that Laughton’s voice was the “more prominent one” in the conversation about exploiting children.

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Three seriously injured in head-on crash on I-293 in Hooksett, N.H. – The Boston Globe

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Three seriously injured in head-on crash on I-293 in Hooksett, N.H. – The Boston Globe


Three people suffered injuries in a two-vehicle collision early Tuesday morning in Hooksett, New Hampshire.Courtesy of New Hampshore State

Three people suffered serious injuries Tuesday in a two-vehicle crash in Hooksett, N.H., police said.

The head-on collision happened around 5:40 a.m. on Interstate 293 northbound, State Police said.

Police said that Timothy Hubbard, 43, of Rome, Maine, was traveling south when he lost control of his car and crossed the median into oncoming traffic, police said.

Hubbard, his passenger, and the other driver were taken to hospitals to be treated for serious injuries, police said. The injures were not believed to be life-threatening.

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Police said speed was believed to be a factor in the crash, which is under investigation.


Hannah Goeke can be reached at hannah.goeke@globe.com.





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