Add another concern — tariffs — to the factors inhibiting the creation of more residential housing in New Hampshire.

Tariffs, both threatened and enacted, by the Trump Administration on Canadian lumber, as well as on building materials and supplies from other countries such as China, could have a dampening effect on new housing construction. They could also create supply chain issues for building materials and supplies, leading to delays and adding to higher costs, according to industry experts.

“There are real consequences for landowners, loggers, saw mills and lumber yards in New Hampshire with this trade war, and it also hurts our ability to support the construction of the new housing that our state desperately needs,” said U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, Democrat representing New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District.

Pappas convened a roundtable recently to discuss tariff consequences with representatives from the state’s timber industry as he cited what he called “real consequences” for landowners, loggers, saw mills, and lumber yards in New Hampshire.

Since he took office in January, President Donald Trump has targeted counties around the world with an array of tariffs, that, depending on the country, ostensibly seek to rein in illegal immigration and drug trafficking, even the trading field, and/or force U.S. companies that have off-shored production to bring that work home.

He ordered a 25% tariff on imports from Canada on March 4 that included softwood lumber, a primary component in home building. He delayed the tariffs, citing negotiations, for 30 days, then another 30 days.

The home building industry is waiting to see when and if the tariff shoe drops, or not. Meanwhile, the cross border tariff tensions have been further heightened by Trump Administration talk of annexing Canada as a 51st state.

It all adds up to economic unease in a variety of markets, including the state’s timber industry, which, according to Pappas, contributes to the state’s economy with an economic output of over $2 billion and employs over 7,500 workers. New Hampshire exports account for 7% of the state’s gross domestic product in 2023, the highest percentage of exports of any New England state, according to Pappas, who said that means New Hampshire businesses are more vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs imposed by Canada.

“These tariffs and trade wars could not have come at a worse time. As an industry still reeling from the last trade war in 2018 and COVID, which disrupted our operations, the last thing we need is more obstacles and additional costs,” said Jasen Stock, executive director of the New Hampshire Timberland Owners Association. He was part of the Pappas roundtable, held April 16 in Kingston.

“The tariffs are impacting the entire forest products supply chain from landowners to sawmills and home builders,” added Stock.

New Hampshire needs residential housing.

A new report from the N.H. Department of Business and Economic Affairs says the state needs the addition of 32,704 by 2025 to reach a balanced market by 2040. It says the state is on track to reach 75% of this target.

Statewide, according to the department, single-family home permits decreased from 2,450 in 2022 to 2,239 in 2023. However, the percentage of single-family homes permits relative to total permits issued increased slightly, from 43.6% of the total in 2022 to 45.9% of the total in 2023. This follows a two-year decline in percentage of total permits from 59.2% in 2020. 2.7% (12) 21.3% (127) 24.1% (51).

Joe Carrier, general manager of HHP Inc., a hardwood sawmill in Henniker, another participant in the roundtable said the tariffs have left him scrambling.

“Canada and China are the two biggest countries we export to which these tariffs have effectively shut off those markets for us, so as a business we are scrambling on how to continue to operate,” Carrier said. “The forest products industry is a long, traditional New Hampshire industry, and I worry it will not be able to survive these tariffs. It’s difficult to plan for our future or grow with this uncertainty.”

The U.S. imported just over 11.8 billion board feet of softwood lumber from Canada in 2024, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

“Tariffs on building materials act as a tax on American builders, home buyers and consumers,” said a statement from the National Association of Home Builders. “Builders estimate an average cost increase of $10,900 per home due to recent tariff actions, according to the April 2025 NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.”

The N.H. Home Builders Association is taking a wait and see approach to the tariff question.

“We’re being very measured in our response” to tariffs, said Matt Mayberry, the state association’s chief executive officer.

Immediately after Trump took office and started talking about tariffs, his members took some precautionary measures by stockpiling lumber.

“A lot of them stockpiled, and they tell me that they have somewhere between six and eight months of regular supply of lumber ready to go,” Mayberry said. “And no one’s awfully worried about it. It’s in their mind, but they’re not concerned about it because it could change.”

“It’s, you know, pick a day, pick a scenario, and it might change, right?” he added.

According to Mayberry, his building contractors are more worried about what goes into a new home or remodel — appliances from overseas, particularly China and Japan, that are subject to the tariffs.

“We can frame the home. It’s outfitting the home that is a challenge, because when you look at 125% tariffs on microwaves, stoves, refrigerators, toasters, all the things that go into a home that’s made in China, that’s going to be affected, that’s going to add up much more quickly,” Mayberry said.

In the general scheme of things, Mayberry says, there are measures being taken that might offset the potential higher cost of construction if tariffs continue long term. He noted in particular Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s order to state agencies to streamline the permitting process for housing developments, requiring a decision within 60 days of application.

“We’re talking about driveway permits going from a year and a half to 60 days,” he said. “We’re talking about alterations to drain permits that normally took eight months to a year getting done in 60 days. Those are all time savings.”

One of the local companies that stockpiled inventory was Bensonwood, a custom builder in Walpole that depends on a specific glue laminated wood product (called glulam) from a supplier in northern Quebec.

“The quality of the wood is really, really high, and the quality of their finished product is really, really high,” said Tedd Benson, who founded Bensonwood in 1975. “We’re getting everything we need, this consistent framing lumber that is critical to the quality that we’re trying to achieve, plus sustainability because of their forest practices.”

With the threat of tariffs early in the year, Benson said the company made the strategic decision to pre-buy enough glulam to meet their needs for their fiscal year.

It was stressful to the supplier to get the product made and delivered before the start of the threatened tariff, according to Benson, and it remains stressful even as the tariffs were delayed because they still hang out there as a possibility.

This has roiled the economy as a whole, depressing markets, raising the spectre of a recession, and putting a damper on hiring and new projects, Benson said.

“As a company, here we are, with everything in place to produce really high quality, more affordable and accessible homes. We should be ramping up production. Our backlog is plenty strong. Due to the chaos, we can’t do anything,” Benson said. “We can’t hire because there’s a recession coming. Theoretically, we can’t boost production because even our backlog of clients are wary. Will there be a recession, inflation? Will the tariffs be instituted? Nobody knows.”

“Our industry and our company are basically paralyzed,” Benson added. “We can’t play out our mission within the context of an administration that’s just tearing down our institutions and tearing down our economy and making enemies of our friends. What in the world is going on? That actually just makes zero sense.”

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