New Hampshire

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the New Hampshire primaries

Published

2 years ago

January 19, 2024

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the New Hampshire primaries

WASHINGTON — The race for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations will converge in New Hampshire on Tuesday in the first primary election of the season — though on the Democratic side, the contest may count only for bragging rights.

The Republican primary will test former President Donald Trump’s front-runner status in a state he carried by a comfortable margin in the 2016 primary but has a considerably more moderate electorate than the one that delivered him a big win in the Iowa caucuses.

It will also be a test for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who wants to establish herself as the main alternative to Trump. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who edged Haley for second place in Iowa, is now focusing his efforts on South Carolina, after two scheduled New Hampshire debates were canceled.

Trump has had a consistent lead in the polls, with Haley, a former South Carolina governor, appearing to be in the strongest position among his rivals.

In the Democratic primary, President Joe Biden won’t appear on the ballot, since the contest violates the national party rules he pushed for, but supporters have mounted a write-in campaign on his behalf. The Biden campaign has not endorsed the write-in effort. Among the Democratic candidates whose names will appear on the ballot are U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and 2020 candidate Marianne Williamson.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

PRIMARY NIGHT

The New Hampshire presidential primaries will be held on Tuesday. The last polls in the state close at 8 p.m. ET, although polls in most of the state close at 7 p.m. ET and some close at 7:30 p.m. ET. In tiny Dixville Notch, which has only a handful of residents, polls open at midnight ET and close a few minutes later once all voters have cast a ballot.

WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT

The Associated Press will provide coverage for both the Democratic and the Republican presidential primaries. The Republican primary ballot will list the names of 24 candidates, including DeSantis, Haley and Trump. The ballot also includes the names of candidates who have dropped out, such as Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Vivek Ramaswamy and others. The Democratic ballot will list the names of 21 candidates, including Phillips and Williamson. Biden will not be listed on the ballot.

WHO GETS TO VOTE

Registered party members may vote only in their party’s primary. In other words, registered Democrats may vote only in the Democratic primary, and registered Republicans may vote only in the Republican primary. Independent or unaffiliated voters may vote in either primary. New voters may register on primary day at a polling site, but the deadline to change party affiliation for voters who are already registered was in October. Seventeen-year-olds who will turn 18 by the November general election may vote in the primary.

DELEGATE ALLOCATION RULES

For Republicans, delegate allocation is proportional by statewide vote with a 10% threshold. Statewide primary results will be used to determine how many of New Hampshire’s 22 Republican National Convention delegates each candidate has won. Delegates are allocated to candidates in proportion to their share of the statewide vote, although a candidate must receive at least 10% of the vote to qualify for delegates. Any unallocated delegates are awarded to the statewide winner. Unlike some other states, New Hampshire Republican delegates are not allocated by congressional district.

For Democrats, no delegates will be allocated based on the results of the primary, according to the Democratic National Committee, which governs the nomination process.

DECISION NOTES

Trump won a competitive New Hampshire primary in 2016 with 35% of the vote, more than double the showing of his nearest competitor, then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich. He did best in the state’s heavily Republican areas, outperforming Kasich by a nearly 4-1 ratio. Trump fared less well in the state’s heavily Democratic areas, although he still finished slightly ahead of Kasich in those parts of the state.

In Iowa, Haley performed best in the state’s more Democratic-friendly areas, but she finished with more votes than the former president in only one county. To be competitive against Trump in New Hampshire, she’ll surely need to beat Trump outright in the state’s Democratic strongholds. If Trump posts big margins in these areas, including in Concord and Portsmouth, he’s likely on his way to a decisive win statewide.

Many New Hampshire towns report all or nearly all of their votes at once. The Associated Press will analyze those early returns and compare them with past election results, which may help determine whether early returns are providing a clear indication of the winner.

The Democratic race is complicated by the Biden write-in factor. The AP will report vote results for the 21 candidates listed on the ballot, as well as for “Unprocessed write-in,” and once those ballots are sorted and tallied by name, for “Joe Biden write-in” or “Other write-in.”

The AP will analyze results from towns as they begin to report candidate-specific write-in totals to determine whether the Biden write-in effort has prevailed. The New Hampshire secretary of state has expressed optimism about local elections officials’ ability to tabulate and report write-in votes, but any delay in determining Biden’s share will slow how quickly the AP is able to declare a winner.

The AP will declare winners in both primaries, as well as a second-place determination in the Republican contest. The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There is no automatic recount in New Hampshire presidential primaries, but any candidate who receives at least 9% of votes cast may request a recount for a fee. The fee is refunded if the person who requested it is declared the winner.

WHAT DO TURNOUT AND ADVANCE VOTE LOOK LIKE?

As of Dec. 28, 2023, there were about 873,000 registered voters in New Hampshire. Registered Republicans make up 31% of voters, compared with 30% for Democrats. Independents or unaffiliated voters comprise 39% of all voters.

In recent Democratic presidential primaries in New Hampshire, turnout was 43% of eligible voters — those who are registered as Democrats or who are unaffiliated — in 2020 and 41% in 2016. On the Republican side, turnout was 23% of eligible voters in 2020, when Trump was running for reelection, and 44% in 2016, when Trump first ran.

Pre-Election Day voting is not particularly popular in New Hampshire. In the 2020 primaries, ballots cast before Election Day made up only 7% of Democratic primary votes and 4% of Republican primary votes.

HOW LONG DOES VOTE-COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?

In the 2020 New Hampshire primary, the AP first reported results at 12:13 a.m. ET for the Democratic race and 12:14 a.m. ET for the Republican race, to reflect the state’s small handful of votes cast at midnight on primary morning. The primary night results were first reported at 7:32 p.m. ET for Republicans and 7:34 p.m. ET for Democrats.

Primary night tabulation ended at 1:12 a.m. ET for the Democratic contest with 93% of total votes counted and at 1:14 a.m. ET for Republicans with 92% of votes counted.

The Manchester and Concord areas tend to report results faster than the rest of the state. Vote reporting in the northern half of New Hampshire tends to trail that of other parts of the state.

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New Hampshire

Nashua Fire Rescue thanks Southern New Hampshire Medical Center with banner

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11 hours ago

March 25, 2026

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New Hampshire

A new statewide initiative aims to improve communication during labor

Published

23 hours ago

March 25, 2026

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A new statewide initiative aims to improve communication during labor

During labor things said can get lost in the rush – like a patient not knowing an incoming doctor’s name at the start of a new shift. Or sometimes patients worry about where their doctors are and if their personal concerns during delivery are being addressed.

It’s why a program called TeamBirth has been implemented at Dartmouth Health’s member hospitals with labor and delivery services.

TeamBirth was developed by Ariadne Labs, a health systems research center with the Brigham and Women’s Hospital and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. It addresses the health complications, mistreatment and high maternal mortality rates seen in the United States.

According to Ariadne Labs, 80 to 90% of patient harm comes from miscommunication between doctors and patients, with higher risks for Black and Indigenous people.

New Hampshire is the fifth state in the country to implement TeamBirth to all of its hospitals.

Dr. Emily Donelan is the medical director of the birthing pavilion at Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center, which launched their plan earlier this month. She said TeamBirth involves doctors, patients and their support teams, like doulas and midwives, writing out birth plans and important information on a whiteboard. It’s a way to make sure everyone is on the same page and patients feel empowered.

“I think the real goal is to prevent the telephone,” Donelan said. “That often happens in hospitals where the patient says something to the nurse, and then the nurse comes to the doctor, and then the doctor goes to the patient, but they’re not all in the same room simultaneously, and things can get lost.”

The whiteboard is just a tool for discussions patients and doctors will have with each other as labor begins. Donelan said that at various points during the delivery, especially when major decisions are made, doctors and patients will huddle at the patient’s bedside and discuss steps and options. The aim, she said, is to focus on the patient.

Doctors will ask the patient’s preferred name, how they want themselves and their baby to be treated, and encourage patients to use the whiteboard themselves – writing down questions, concerns and important information.

“So really eliciting their goals, their hopes, their dreams for their labor to make sure that before we jump into the plan and the decision making, we’re really centering what they want from this experience and hearing their voice first,” Donelan said.

Foundation for Healthy Families, the New Hampshire Perinatal Quality Collaborative and Unravel Healthcare are spearheading the TeamBirth initiative which is expanding to all hospitals with a labor and delivery unit in the state.

Exeter Hospital started implementing TeamBirth in 2024.

So far, the hospital has received positive feedback from patients who say they’ve felt heard and respected, says April St. Hilaire, director of The Family Center, The Center for Reproductive Care & Maternal Fetal Medicine at Exeter Hospital.

“Even in patients that don’t have the best outcomes, so to speak, like, let’s say they end up with a C-section versus a vaginal delivery, which happens, they still felt like they had a wonderful experience and were very well cared for,” St. Hilaire said.

St. Hilaire said it’s the shared decision making, as opposed to a patient being debriefed after a major decision is made, that can help healthcare providers earn trust.

Concord Hospital is rolling out TeamBirth this coming April.

Melissa Devine, director of Concord Hospital’s Women and Children’s Value Stream, said they’ve been building towards the launch of TeamBirth since October. She said TeamBirth isn’t an earth shattering shift – it’s really making sure everyone is on the same page during a significant life event.

“As we travel through the process, we know patients want transparency,” Devine said. “They want to be able to understand time frames. ‘When is my provider going to see me?’ And all of those little moments build the trust and just build the essence of making sure that everyone is on the same page when things matter most.”

Devine said Concord Hospital will also have prenatal services modeling TeamBirth at Laconia starting from six weeks gestation to after the first year of a newborn’s life.

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New Hampshire

Democrats gain ground in NH, new St. Anselm poll shows

Published

1 day ago

March 24, 2026

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Democrats gain ground in NH, new St. Anselm poll shows

The poll, released March 23, found that Democrats lead the generic ballot 49% to 41%, up four points from November.
Pappas leads both Republican challengers, former New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu and former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, in hypothetical matchups for Senate.
Gov. Kelly Ayotte still has a slight positive approval rating and beats her potential opponents in hypothetical head-to-head matchups.

Democrats are gaining ground ahead of the 2026 midterms, a new poll from Saint Anselm College Survey Center revealed.

The poll, released March 23, found Democrats lead the generic ballot 49% to 41%, up four points from November. That increase is likely due to concerns over the economy and foreign policy: 59% of voters surveyed oppose the recent military action in Iran, and a slight plurality now trust Democrats over Republicans on economic and affordability issues.

“War and economic uncertainty are creating headwinds for Republicans in New Hampshire, putting Congressman Chris Pappas in a stronger position than in our previous survey,” said Neil Levesque, the executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, in a statement.

The poll found Pappas leads both of his potential Republican challengers, former New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu and former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, in hypothetical matchups for Senate. Rep. Maggie Goodlander, D-NH, also “restored her lead” against 2024 Republican nominee Lily Tang Williams.

Democrats also have more enthusiasm: 96% are “extremely likely” to vote in the midterm elections, compared to 88% of Republicans.

Despite the rise in support for Democrats, Gov. Kelly Ayotte still has a slight positive approval rating and beats her potential opponents in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. And President Donald Trump’s approval rating has remained largely unchanged.

The poll surveyed 1,491 New Hampshire registered voters online from March 16 to 18. The margin of error is +/-2.5%.

What is Kelly Ayotte’s approval rating?

The poll found Ayotte’s approval rating was 49%, with 47% disapproval. Her net approval is slightly down from November, when she was at 49% to 43%.

However, she still polls ahead of her two Democratic challengers for governor. Ayotte leads former executive councilor Cinde Warmington 46% to 39% and former Newmarket restaurant owner Jon Kiper 45% to 31%.

In the Democratic primary, Warmington leads Kiper 40% to 13%.

What is Donald Trump’s approval rating?

Forty-two percent of New Hampshire voters approve of Trump’s performance, the poll found, while 58% disapprove.

The same split is found on his favorability: 42% find Trump favorable, while 58% find him unfavorable.

This is largely unchanged from November, when he was at 57% disapproval and 57% unfavorable.

Buttigieg overtakes Newsom, Rubio gains support in 2028 primary polls

As presidential hopefuls continue to visit the early primary state, the Saint Anselm poll found some shakeups in an early look at the 2028 presidential primaries.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigeig, who finished second in the state in 2020, is an early favorite with 29% support from Democratic voters. At 15%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has fallen back, the poll says, and he is followed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10%) and former Vice President Kamala Harris (6%).

While Vice President J.D. Vance remains the top choice on the Republican side with 46%, his support has fallen from 57% in November while Secretary of State Marco Rubio has risen in the ranks.

“Rubio has tripled his support from 9% to 27%, and must now be considered a significant potential challenger to Vance,” the poll says.

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