Massachusetts snow forecast: Up to 8 inches in spots, Boston-area estimate ‘a little tricky’

It could be a tale of two storms across the region this weekend, with some areas digging out from several inches of snow while other residents might only see 1 to 2 inches.

Some spots in Massachusetts could get up to 8 inches of snow as the coastal storm hits New England from Sunday into Monday.

The National Weather Service’s initial forecast for Boston is 1 to 2 inches of snow, but that could certainly change.

“The forecast for Boston is a little tricky,” Frank Nocera, meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Boston office, told the Herald on Friday. “There’s not a lot of cold air on the front end of the system, so it will start off as rain, then mix with snow, and then all snow by Monday morning.

“The timing of the changeover to snow is definitely uncertain,” he added, noting that the storm hasn’t even formed yet a few days out. “We’re forecasting 1 to 2 inches of snow for Boston, but it could turn out to be more if the storm rapidly intensifies. It’s too early to tell.”

Forecasters are more confident that more than 4 inches of snow will fall across Worcester County, and along the higher terrain.

“That’s where it will be colder, so more snow will accumulate there,” Nocera said. “Closer to the coastline, it’s uncertain how quick that rain to snow changeover will happen.”

The Monday morning commute will likely be messy and slippery.

“There will definitely be some impacts,” Nocera said.

The National Weather Service has issued a “Winter Storm Watch” for northern Worcester and northern Middlesex counties, along with the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. Heavy snow will be possible.

“Travel could be very difficult,” NWS warned. “The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and possibly the Monday evening commute.”

Also with this storm, northeast wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph will be possible along the coast late Sunday into early Monday, with the strongest winds on Cape Cod and Nantucket.

Fortunately, astronomical high tides will be relatively low, so forecasters expect only some splashover and minor coastal flooding. However, beach erosion may be an issue for some of the coast that has been hard hit over the past month.

Overall with the tricky forecast, Nocera said residents should “check back this weekend.”

He added, “If the storm intensifies quickly, then there could be some heavier amounts.”