How will the Iran war impact gas prices in Massachusetts?

With a widening conflict in the Middle East after the American and Israeli attack on Iran Saturday, global markets are bracing for a shakeup in the energy supply chain.

So, here at home, what can consumers expect at the gas pump?

An increase in oil prices is almost always followed by an increase in gas prices. And the oil market has already reacted to the war. NBC News reported on Sunday that U.S. crude oil initially spiked more than 10%, while Brent, the international oil benchmark, rose as much as 13%.

Early Monday morning, reports were coming in of black smoke rising from the U.S. embassy in Kuwait City.

While Iran’s oil reserves supply less than an estimated 5% of global production, the main concern is the Strait of Hormuz. This maritime passageway borders Iran at the bottleneck of the Persian Gulf, and more than 20% of the world’s oil passes through. If Iran closes or restricts Hormuz, the oil market could face severe disruptions.

Gas prices rise about 2.5 cents for every dollar increase in crude oil prices. As of Sunday, U.S. crude oil prices had already increased by nearly $5 a barrel.

“I fully expect that by Monday night, you could credibly say that gas prices are being impacted by oil prices having gone up,” GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan told NBC News.

GasBuddy characterizes their expectations for price increases as “incremental” rather than “explosive”. The group said to anticipate a potential 10-15 cent increase over the next couple of weeks.