Unlike last 2 falls, COVID infections decline in Maine

Nov. 24—The variety of Maine hospital sufferers contaminated with COVID has dropped dramatically in latest weeks, a pointy distinction to the surge of hospitalizations skilled the previous two autumns.

It is a welcome development that well being officers hope will proceed as Maine faces a mix of respiratory diseases that would pressure the well being care system. The state’s hospitals are presently full of pediatric respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) instances and bracing for a probably extreme influenza season this winter.

COVID-19 hospitalizations stood at 98 on Tuesday, with 14 folks in intensive care. That is the lowest affected person depend since Could and a major drop from 155 hospitalizations two weeks in the past and 234 on Oct. 17.

Prior to now two Novembers, Maine skilled among the worst surges of the pandemic.

In 2020, the variety of hospital sufferers with COVID rose from 28 initially of November to 139 on the finish of the month.

In 2021, as a delta variant spike was adopted by the omicron surge, COVID-19 hospitalizations spiked from 212 to 330 in November and saved rising till peaking at 436 on Jan. 13, 2022.

Nationally, COVID-19 hospitalizations are also down, a discount of 4.4% in comparison with final week, and the overall development within the U.S. this fall is flat.

Dr. Nirav Shah, director of the Maine Middle for Illness Management and Prevention, stated that the declining COVID-19 hospitalizations are a welcome “bit of excellent information” at a time when hospitals are “packed” with RSV sufferers.

“What’s having an outsize position in producing the downturn is our extraordinarily excessive vaccination fee,” Shah stated. “It makes it more durable for the virus to leap from individual to individual.”

Maine has among the many highest vaccination charges within the nation, together with the brand new omicron-targeting booster shot.

Maine has the second-highest fee of vaccination for the omicron booster, with 21.2% of these ages 5 and older getting the shot, in comparison with 11.3% nationally, in line with the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention. Many states throughout the South have omicron booster charges of 5% or much less. Vermont has one of the best omicron booster vaccination fee within the nation at 23.2%.

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Shah stated that despite the fact that omicron booster charges of simply over 20% could not sound like lots, it might be sufficient to assist tamp down will increase when mixed with immunity from earlier vaccinations and immunity from those that have contracted COVID-19.

“Even that 20% has a major immunological affect, in comparison with states which have 3% to 4% with the bivalent (omicron) booster,” Shah stated.

Maine is also a frontrunner within the authentic vaccination sequence, first rolled out in spring 2021, with about 82% of the state’s 1.3 million folks absolutely vaccinated, in line with the U.S. CDC.

Wastewater testing, which is an early warning system that may venture increased ranges of virus circulating locally, additionally exhibits a decline in virus prevalence this fall in lots of Maine cities and cities, together with Portland, Westbrook, Bangor, Lewiston-Auburn and Augusta.

Dr. Dora Anne Mills, chief well being enchancment officer for MaineHealth, the dad or mum group of Maine Medical Middle in Portland and 7 different Maine hospitals, stated one cause hospitalizations aren’t climbing might be that in comparison with a yr in the past, or two years in the past, immunity ranges are excessive.

“We have now a a lot greater wall of immunity than we had final yr,” Mills stated.

One other potential issue is that usually there will not be two respiratory viruses circulating in nice numbers on the similar time, she stated.

“It’s uncommon for 2 or three respiratory viruses to be at excessive ranges at similar time,” Mills stated. “It is not understood precisely why, however they have an inclination to elbow one another out.”

Which will bode nicely for considerations this winter a few “tri-demic,” or ranges of RSV, COVID-19 and influenza spiking on the similar time. However Mills stated she is not making any projections concerning the winter as a result of viruses are unpredictable.

RSV is a pediatric respiratory illness most harmful to infants, whereas influenza tends to be most threatening to seniors. Maine is to date experiencing low ranges of influenza, however the virus is now hitting a lot of the East Coast, together with excessive ranges as far north as New York and Connecticut, in line with the U.S. CDC.

“I take a look at the winter with some warning, however we actually haven’t got barometer of what these viruses are going to do,” Mills stated.

Additional mutations of the omicron variant — BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 — are including extra layers of complexity, however Shah stated he’s to date seeing comparatively excellent news concerning the variants. The variants don’t seem to trigger extra extreme COVID-19, which is promising, Shah stated. And whereas they’ve proven some capability to evade immunity in laboratory checks, the human immune system is rather more advanced and strong.

“These variants are doing a very good job of outfoxing the immune system in a petri dish, however in the true world, it does not essentially translate into extra infections in people,” Shah stated.

SURGE COULD BE COMING

However scientists, together with Shah, are usually not claiming victory over COVID-19, and there nonetheless could also be a winter surge.

“The query is whether or not this improve goes to be nationwide and whether or not the scale of the rise and the surge can be one thing like what we skilled with delta and omicron, or a lot smaller,” Samuel Scarpino, vp of Pathogen Surveillance for the Rockefeller Basis, stated in a Nov. 11 interview with NPR.

In the meantime, public well being specialists say to follow good hygiene, together with frequent hand-washing, put on a masks indoors in crowded and unventilated areas, and keep house when sick. And public well being officers are urging Maine individuals who have not gotten a flu shot or omicron booster to take action as quickly as potential.

As well as, Mills stated dad and mom with kids beneath 6 months of age ought to restrict the toddler’s contact with different folks — significantly at household gatherings the place the youngsters is perhaps kissed or handed round — to scale back the probabilities of RSV, which mimics the frequent chilly in adults.

“In case you have a really younger toddler, I would not cross the infant round and have everybody kiss the infant,” Mills stated.