New CBA Could Lower All-NBA Stakes For Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics wing Jaylen Brown has tens of tens of millions of {dollars} on the road this spring.

If Brown makes an All-NBA group, he’ll be eligible to signal a four-year supermax extension with the Celtics this summer time. That contract would start at 35 % of the 2024-25 wage cap and include 8 % annual raises. But when he does not make an All-NBA group, the Celtics could also be way more restricted in what they’ll supply him in an extension.

Beneath the NBA’s present collective bargaining settlement, groups can supply gamers not more than 120% of their earlier wage or 120% of the estimated common wage (whichever is larger) because the beginning wage of a brand new extension. With Brown set to earn $30.7 million within the ultimate yr of his contract subsequent season, the Celtics can supply him not more than $36.9 million because the beginning wage of an extension if does not make an All-NBA group. The four-year complete comes out to almost $165.2 million, which is probably going tens of tens of millions lower than he might make as a free agent in 2024.

Nevertheless, the NBA and the Nationwide Basketball Gamers Affiliation are at the moment negotiating a brand new collective bargaining settlement that might take impact as early as this summer time. One of many proposed adjustments might make an extension way more real looking for Brown and the Celtics even when he does not make an All-NBA group this yr.

In response to Shams Charania of The Athletic, the NBA and NBPA have mentioned permitting groups to as an alternative supply 140 or 150% of a participant’s earlier wage because the beginning wage of a brand new extension relatively than 120%. If that change goes into impact this summer time, the Celtics ought to be capable of supply Brown a full max or near-max extension, relying on the place the wage cap lands in 2024-25.

Since Brown may have eight years of NBA expertise when he is eligible free of charge company in 2024, he might signal a contract with a beginning wage value as much as 30% of the 2024-25 wage cap. Whereas the league hasn’t issued an official projection for that yr’s wage cap, we will use RealGM’s projection of $140.7 million to provide a ballpark estimate of what Brown might earn as a free agent.

No matter whether or not Brown re-signs with the Celtics or heads elsewhere, his max deal would begin at $42.2 million (30% of the $140.7 million cap). He’d be eligible to signal a five-year, $244.8 million max cope with the Celtics (8% annual raises) or a four-year, $181.5 million cope with every other group (5% annual raises). Both approach, that is far more cash than he can obtain from the Celtics beneath the present extension guidelines if he misses the All-NBA group this season.

The proposed extension adjustments would greater than bridge that hole, although. No matter whether or not the Celtics might supply him 140% of his 2023-24 wage ($43.0 million) or 150% ($46.1 million), each would exceed his max wage beneath a $140.7 million cap. So if the brand new CBA goes into impact this summer time with these new extension guidelines, the Celtics might supply Brown a four-year extension value a projected $189.1 million.

There are a number of caveats right here, nonetheless.

For one, if the 2024-25 cap is available in considerably increased than $140.7 million, Brown’s max wage will rise accordingly. If it lands at $150 million, for instance, he’d be eligible to signal a brand new contract with a beginning wage of $45 million as a free agent. If the brand new CBA limits groups to providing not more than 140% of the participant’s earlier wage because the beginning wage of an extension relatively than 150%, the Celtics would nonetheless are available in a number of million beneath what Brown might earn as a free agent.

Brown might additionally determine to wager on himself relatively than lock in an extension. If he makes an All-NBA group subsequent season, he’ll be eligible to signal a five-year supermax contract with the Celtics in free company beginning at 35% of the wage cap. If the 2024-25 cap lands at $140.7 million, Brown could be eligible for a five-year, $285.6 million (!) supermax.

There’s all the time an opportunity that the brand new CBA will embrace adjustments to supermax contracts, too, notably since they have not fairly panned out as hoped since being carried out in 2017. If the eligibility standards adjustments, Brown would possibly be capable of signal a supermax with out making an All-NBA group in both of the subsequent two years.

There is no assure that cash alone can be sufficient to persuade Brown to stay in Boston past 2024. When Logan Murdock of The Ringer lately requested Brown whether or not he wished to stick with the Celtics long run, he demurred.

“I don’t know. So long as I’m wanted. It’s lower than me,” he mentioned. “We’ll see how they really feel about me over time and I really feel about them over time. Hopefully, no matter it’s, it is smart. However I’ll keep the place I’m wished. I’ll keep the place I’m wanted and handled appropriate.”

A $200-plus million contract might go a good distance towards smoothing over any damage emotions. Whether or not the Celtics can supply Brown such a deal this summer time will come down not solely to his All-NBA standing, but in addition what the brand new CBA has in retailer.

Except in any other case famous, all stats by way of NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleansing the Glass or Basketball Reference. All wage data by way of Spotrac or RealGM. All odds by way of FanDuel Sportsbook.