Florida State Seminoles vs. Boston College Eagles Prediction: Who Wins, and Why

The long opening weekend of the 2024 college football season comes to a close from the Sunshine State on Labor Day as No. 10 Florida State returns home needing a win against Boston College hoping to avoid falling into an 0-2 hole on Monday night.

The Seminoles return stateside after coming out the wrong end of a three-point decision against unranked Georgia Tech in the Week 0 opener in Dublin, and although a loss in the era of an expanded playoff doesn’t doom their postseason hopes, it doesn’t help them, either.

Florida State will almost certainly fall from that No. 10 ranking because of that loss, regardless of what happens against the Eagles, the first of seven conference games the team has to recover its position as the ostensible favorite to win the ACC championship.

Boston College will be a challenge, however, thanks to the play of quarterback Thomas Castellanos, a dual-threat menace now playing under the tutelage of NFL veteran and new Eagles head coach Bill O’Brien, and who led this team in a narrow, 2-point loss to the Seminoles at home a year ago.

What can we expect in this matchup? Here’s what to watch out for as Florida State hosts Boston College in the last of the Week 1 games on Monday night.

How to watch

When: Mon., Sept. 2
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Florida State vs. Boston College game odds

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Florida State: -16.5 (-105)
Boston College: +16.5 (-115)

FSU to win: -720
BC to win: +500

Over 51.5 points (-105)
Under 51.5 points (-115)

FPI picks: FSU 82.4% | BC 17.6%

What to watch for

1. BC’s quarterback. Castellanos threw for 305 yards and ran for 95 more against FSU’s superb defense a year ago and scored 2 total touchdowns. One key area for the Seminoles to make an adjustment is in how they contain a mobile quarterback after struggling against Haynes King in the Week 0 game.

2. Ground and pound. DJ Uiagalelei impressed in first- and fourth-quarter drives last week, but didn’t test the deeper passing lanes as much as expected, and the offense stagnated as a result.

BC’s back seven will give him some chances, but in the meantime expect the Noles to use their experienced line and talented backs to go after an Eagles run-stop that was 13th in the ACC a year ago but returns eight starters.

3. It’s not just the QB. All eyes are on Castellanos to drive the Eagles offense, but the signal caller is backed up by three returning linemen up front, tailback Kye Robichaux, transfer back and ex-Nole Treshaun Ward, and receiver Lewis Bond.

All are deceptively agile in space, can get yards after contact, and spread the Seminoles’ coverage in a way that could give the QB more room to operate, especially in third-and-short situations, where his mobility can help extend drives and keep this defense on the field.

Florida State vs. Boston College prediction

Granted, the Florida State defensive front isn’t as dominant as it was last season, but it’s still too good to look the way it did in the opener.

It has the athletes and the discipline to contain not just the Eagles’ shifty quarterback, but the other skill players BC can bounce to the outside and limit them to moderate gains and to the interior as much as possible.

Castellanos will frustrate the Seminoles’ front alignment plenty early on, and he’ll probably run for a touchdown, but Florida State still has the personnel to contain him as time wears on, plus the ground game to move the chains and open things for Uiagalelei to work downfield more.

College Football HQ picks …

More … Florida State vs. BC score prediction by expert football model

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