Boston COVID Wastewater Data Is on the Decline. Is the Spring Surge Over?

As COVID-19 circumstances in Massachusetts preserve rising, the wastewater knowledge is exhibiting indicators of a peak — and a downturn — within the newest report.

However the slight downturn doesn’t appear to be convincing medical consultants simply but. Three high Boston docs spoke to NBC10 Boston throughout the weekly “COVID Q&A” sequence about COVID ranges within the wastewater knowledge. The docs stated extra time is required to know the actual outlook of the info.

Dr. Shira Doron of Tufts Medical Middle stated there may be one motive to be skeptical concerning the current slight downturn.

“Within the Boston wastewater, it does seem there’s a constant downward pattern. (Nevertheless), there may be one caveat with the downturn in wastewater. It has been advised that the one method to see a falsely low wastewater viral stage is that if individuals aren’t utilizing bogs, and that would occur if individuals are away for varsity trip week.”

Dr. Daniel Kuritzkes of Brigham and Girls’s Hospital echoed that sentiment.

“You need to have the ability to management for the way a lot human fecal matter is within the wastewater by quantifying human DNA and controlling for it that manner,” he stated. “(The downturn) is encouraging, however like all these traits, we have to see longer traits to know for positive.”

The COVID wastewater knowledge appeared to have peaked earlier in April, when the degrees surged to close 700 copies per milliliter, however since then it appears to have made a downturn to round 500 copies per milliliter.

Dr. Sabrina Assoumou of Boston Medical Middle stated that whereas the downturn is a optimistic, circumstances throughout the state stay excessive.

“It’s encouraging to see it seems to be peaking, so I feel time will inform,” she stated. “However I feel we’ve got to underscore that when you take a look at Massachusetts, the check positivity charge is sort of 5%, so even when we peak, we’ve got to recollect there may be going to be numerous circumstances after we are coming down from that peak, so it’s nonetheless a time to be vigilant.”

Folks from New England who had been in China’s largest metropolis amid its COVID-19 surge have been confined to their condo buildings for over a month.

All three docs stated they need to see extra consistency with the best way the numbers are shifting.

Assoumou famous that many individuals are testing through residence kits and that’s not reported to the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention, which may skew the numbers.

“There may be knowledge that got here out of the CDC that estimated that throughout the omicron wave, roughly 20% of people that had COVID had been testing through residence speedy check,” she stated. “There isn’t any obligatory reporting of residence exams, so we have to discover a method to incentivize individuals to report the testing that will get completed at residence so we will get a greater estimate of what’s taking place locally.”