The No. 2 seed Boston Celtics meet the No. 1 seed Miami Warmth Sunday within the decisive Sport 7 of the Jap Convention Finals at FTX Area. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Beneath, we have a look at the Celtics vs. Warmth odds and contours, and make our knowledgeable NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Warmth saved their season alive by upsetting the Celtics 111-103 in Boston in Sport 6 as 9-point underdogs. Miami outscored Boston in three of the 4 quarters and outperformed the Celtics in three of the “4 components.”
Miami SF Jimmy Butler had a recreation for the ages. He scored 47 factors on 55.2% capturing (16-for-29) and an ideal 11-for-11 from the road with 9 rebounds and eight assists.
Every crew coated the unfold 3 occasions on this collection, however the Celtics have a plus-5.9 internet ranking. The Over//Underneath (O/U) is 4-2.
Celtics at Warmth odds and contours
Odds offered by Tipico Sportsbook; entry USA TODAY Sports activities Scores and Sports activities Betting Odds hub for a full checklist. Strains final up to date at 1:50 p.m. ET.
- Cash line: Celtics -160 (wager $160 to win $100) | Warmth +130 (wager $100 to win $130)
- Towards the unfold (ATS): Celtics -3.5 (-108) | Warmth +3.5 (-112)
- Over/Underneath (O/U): 196.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Celtics at Warmth key accidents
Celtics
- PG Marcus Sensible (ankle) questionable
- C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable
Warmth
- PG Tyler Herro (groin) questionable
- PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
- SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
- PG Gabe Vincent (hamstring) questionable
Celtics at Warmth picks and predictions
Prediction
Warmth 101, Celtics 96
Cash line
LEAN HEAT (+130) . Their unfold is the sharper play regardless that the primary 6 video games of this collection have been determined by at the least 6 factors.
Miami has the sting for Sport 7 as a result of it has the very best participant within the collection (Butler), extra depth, big-game expertise and continuity and, clearly, home-court benefit.
Extra importantly, the Warmth are successful the possession battle for this collection, outperforming the Celtics in each rebounding and turnover charges.
The opposite two “4 components” — effective-field purpose capturing and free-throw try charge — will be extremely variant. These areas are inclined to favor the house aspect as a result of position gamers shoot higher at house and residential groups usually get the good thing about the whistle.
Additionally, Boston struggled to win shut video games throughout the common season, partially on account of its lack of a real level guard. The Celtics had been 13-22 within the “clutch” with a minus-9.5 internet ranking. “Clutch” is outlined by video games inside a 5-point margin inside 5 minutes to play.
Boston’s absence of a flooring normal results in the Celtics counting on contested lengthy 2-pointers or 3-pointers. Boston is 2nd in 3-point try charge for the playoffs and Miami was 2nd in defensive 3-point capturing share this season. The Celtics might waste possessions with poor shot choice.
The underside line is that the HEAT (+130) have extra worth in Sport 7 as a result of they’re house, can have extra possessions and get simpler seems to be.
I’ll take no matter factors I can get with Miami.
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Towards the unfold
BET HEAT +3.5 (-112) as a substitute of or heavier than their ML based mostly on the earlier evaluation.
Miami’s unfold has a contrarian angle since a lot of the market is betting the Celtics -3.5 (-108), in line with VegasInsider.com and Pregame.com.
I’d slightly be on the identical aspect because the oddsmakers in these high-stakes video games because the markets are tight and these groups are evenly matched. It’s usually worthwhile being on the identical aspect because the Home.
HEAT +3.5 (-112) is my favourite wager in Sport 7.
One thing to contemplate: In case you take Miami’s unfold pregame and the Warmth rise up double digits early, then you’ll be able to take a “center” or “hedge” place by betting the Celtics in-game.
Over/Underneath
PASS.
This can be a sharp whole and Sport 7’s usually play Underneath the overall. However each groups chuck 3-pointers, the Over has cashed in 4 of 6 video games this collection and the Over is 11-5 within the final 16 Celtics-Warmth conferences.
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