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Why the Middle East may be too hot to live in by the end of the century

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Why the Middle East may be too hot to live in by the end of the century

One after one other, European international locations similar to Spain and Portugal registered file highs this 12 months.

The northern hemisphere did certainly witness file temperatures, with wildfires engulfing elements of Europe and drought threatening meals provides. And, typically, European cities witnessed hotter circumstances than these within the Persian Gulf.

However consultants say that temperature alone is not an enough measure of the livability of a metropolis — a mix of warmth and humidity is. And that is why the Center East is way much less livable than Europe even on the identical temperatures.

The Center East continues to be fairly sizzling. The Iranian metropolis of Abadan set the file for the most popular dry warmth temperature this 12 months when it hit 53 levels Celsius (127 levels Fahrenheit) on August 5. However mix that with the excessive ranges of humidity within the area and it turns into an much more inhospitable place for human beings. It is tougher to chill down when the climate is humid, as our our bodies battle to switch their warmth to “moist” air relatively than dry air, making it tougher to sweat it out and decrease our physique temperatures.

The measure of warmth mixed with humidity known as the moist bulb temperature. The title stems from the best way this situation is measured, actually by wrapping a moist fabric round a thermometer and measuring the temperature because the water evaporates.

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This speaks on to our physique’s skill to chill itself by way of sweating.

“The moist bulb temperature is the bottom temperature that may be reached by evaporative cooling,” Tapio Schneider, a professor of environmental science and engineering on the California Institute of Know-how, instructed CNN.

The Center East is particularly susceptible to rising international temperatures. “The area is already heat and could be humid,” he stated. “Subsequently, international warming can push it into the zone the place human well being is endangered.”

On July 19, the UK skilled its hottest day on file, surpassing temperatures of 40C for the primary time, with a excessive of 40.3C in japanese England. On the identical day, common temperatures in each London and Dubai had been 34C — however the moist bulb temperature in London was 20C, whereas Dubai was a extra painful 27C.

The Persian Gulf is without doubt one of the few locations on this planet ever to file a moist bulb temperature that exceeds the edge of human survivability, 35C. Since 2005, there have been 9 separate events of this on file.

A moist bulb temperature of 35C means the physique can not cool itself to a temperature that may preserve regular features.

“It’s a laborious threshold for survivability in that impartial of age and health, people can’t survive in these circumstances; they may die inside hours with out particular exertion,” stated Schneider.

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Moist bulb temperatures slightly below 35C aren’t ideally suited both. “People expertise warmth stress at decrease moist bulb temperatures too,” he stated. “And the diploma to which they’ll survive such warmth stress does depend upon health, age, and pre-existing circumstances.”

The oil-rich Arab states of the Persian Gulf have geared up themselves in opposition to the warmth, with energy-intensive air con, however different regional international locations have not been as privileged.

In Iraq, staff within the metropolis of Basra had been requested to remain house as a result of excessive temperatures earlier this month. Nonetheless, households solely rise up to 10 hours of electrical energy from the nationwide grid, with those that can afford it paying non-public generator suppliers to cowl the opposite hours.

The Middle East is running out of water, and parts of it are becoming uninhabitable

In Gaza, residents cool off within the three to 4 hours of electrical energy they get per day, struggling for durations of as much as 20 hours with no electrical energy every day. Equally, Lebanon’s authorities not supplies greater than two hours of electrical energy per day.

And even in some Gulf Arab states, similar to Kuwait, the place there’s a constructing increase, entry to air con is not obtainable to all, together with building staff toiling open air.

Analysis by Purdue College discovered that at round a moist bulb temperature of 32C, it turns into unattainable even for wholesome folks to work open air, with bodily labor having a restrict of 31C.
An MIT simulation discovered that if the present tempo of greenhouse emissions stays fixed within the Persian Gulf, annual most moist bulb temperatures in cities similar to Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha would exceed the edge for human survivability (35C) a number of instances a 12 months by the tip of the century.

The digest

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Saudi activist will get 34 years in jail for Twitter exercise

Saudi girls’s rights campaigner Salma al-Shehab, 33, was sentenced to 34 years in jail on Monday for publishing “false and tendentious rumors on Twitter,” in response to impartial human rights group ALQST and courtroom paperwork seen by CNN.
  • Background: Al-Shehab, a PhD pupil at Leeds College in the UK, was arrested in January 2021 and subjected to questioning periods over a interval of 265 days earlier than being dropped at the Specialised Prison Courtroom, ALQST stated in an announcement. The mom of two was initially given a six-year sentence late final 12 months which was elevated to 34 years after al-Shehab filed an attraction, in response to courtroom paperwork. The fees filed in opposition to her by the Public Prosecution included “offering succor to these in search of to disrupt public order and undermine the protection of most of the people and stability of the state, and publishing false and tendentious rumors on Twitter,” ALQST added.
  • Why it issues: Al-Shehab’s jail sentence is the longest ever for a peaceable activist within the kingdom’s historical past, in response to ALQST. Lina Al-Hathloul, the group’s head of Monitoring and Communications, instructed CNN that al-Shehab had been arrested for supporting her sister Loujain al-Hathloul, a distinguished activist who spent greater than 1,000 days in jail. Lina Al-Hathloul stated within the ALQST assertion that al-Shehab’s sentence “makes a mockery of the Saudi authorities’ claims of reform for girls and of the authorized system,” including that it “reveals that they continue to be hellbent on harshly punishing anybody who expresses their opinions freely.”

Israeli military raids Palestinian civil society organizations within the West Financial institution

The Israel Protection Forces (IDF) raided seven workplaces belonging to 5 Palestinian civil society organizations within the West Financial institution on Thursday morning, in response to Israel’s Ministry of Protection.

  • Background: The 5 teams had been labeled as terrorist organizations by the Israeli authorities final 12 months, which accused them of performing “undercover on the worldwide entrance on behalf of the ‘Standard Entrance for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP),’ to assist its exercise and additional its targets.” The Palestine Liberation Group condemned the transfer, saying it will attraction to human rights organizations “to intervene instantly and condemn the closure of non-governmental organizations and stress to reopen them.”
  • Why it issues: The transfer drew dismay and protests from worldwide organizations. B’Tselem, an Israeli human rights watchdog, condemned the raids and described Israel’s accusations as false. “We are going to proceed to work with our colleagues within the Palestinian NGOs to dismantle the apartheid regime,” an announcement from the group stated. Though circuitously linked, the information additionally comes after the worst bout of violence between the Israeli navy and Palestinian militants since a short conflict final Could. Earlier in August, greater than 40 Palestinian militants and civilians, together with 15 youngsters, had been killed throughout two and a half days of preventing, after Israel launched strikes on targets of the Islamic Jihad militant group in Gaza. Palestinian militants launched greater than 1,000 rockets again towards Israel.

Turkey’s Erdogan meets with Ukraine’s Zelensky and UN chief

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, talking alongside his Ukrainian counterpart Volodomyr Zelensky and UN Secretary-Basic Antonio Guterres within the Ukrainian metropolis of Lviv on Thursday, expressed issues in regards to the ongoing battle across the Zaporizhzhia nuclear energy plant, warning of the hazard of “a brand new Chernobyl.”

  • Background: Ministers from Ukraine and Russia signed an settlement to unblock Ukrainian Black Sea ports, which was brokered by the UN and Turkey in Istanbul on July 22 amid issues over a worldwide meals disaster. Urging Russia and Ukraine to search out “the shortest and the fairest method to the negotiating desk,” the Turkish chief stated on Thursday: “I preserve my perception that the conflict will ultimately finish on the negotiating desk. In truth, [Zelensky] and Guterres echo this view.” Zelensky responded by saying he was shocked by Erdogan’s suggestion and that he has “no religion within the Russian Federation.” “The people who find themselves killing, raping, dropping rockets on our civilian infrastructures day-after-day can’t need peace, in order that they need to free our territories first,” the Ukrainian President added.
  • Why it issues: Turkey has been internet hosting talks between delegates from Russia and Ukraine for months now, and Erdogan has been vying for a mediation function within the battle. That function was seemingly elevated after Ankara helped dealer the deal to permit exports of grain from the blockaded Ukrainian ports. Within the course of, Erdogan has been engaged in a strategic balancing act between Russia on one facet, and Ukraine and the West on the opposite. At Thursday’s assembly in Lviv, the Turkish President stated, “We’re able to act as a facilitator or mediator in the direction of the objective of reviving the negotiations over the parameters that took type in Istanbul.”

What to observe

Local weather change and poor water administration are inflicting alarming droughts throughout the globe, drying up lakes that when flowed with considerable recent water. Israel is hopeful, nevertheless, that by desalinating sea water from the Mediterranean, it could pump again recent water into lakes throughout the nation.

Watch the total report right here:

Across the area

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The Tehran Museum of Up to date Artwork was compelled to briefly shut as a result of insect infestation, the museum stated in an announcement and apology on Wednesday.
The information broke after a video posted on the BBC Persian web site went viral. It confirmed two silverfish crawling beneath the glass of a well-known {photograph} taken by influential German photographers Bernd and Hilla Becher.

“The treasure works of the Tehran Museum of Up to date Arts, nationwide wealth and their correct upkeep are a very powerful concern of all of us, and the eye and sensitivity of the Iranian artwork household is a invaluable asset,” the assertion stated.

As soon as the museum grew to become conscious of the scenario, pest management technicians rushed over to deal with the issue, it stated. “Luckily, this work was not broken, and no bugs had been seen within the different works of the exhibition,” it continued.

The assertion stated that consultants will probably be fumigating the constructing’s exterior areas, as it’s doubtless the bugs entered from exterior.

The Tehran Museum of Up to date Artwork is without doubt one of the largest artwork museums within the nation, carrying massive collections of each Iranian and Western work. After the 1979 Iranian Revolution, most of the famend Western artwork items had been saved and hidden within the museum vault for many years. Now, the museum incessantly shows art work from world wide, together with america and Europe.

By Zeena Saifi

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A man walks in front of his home after it was destroyed by a wildfire in the Algerian city of el-Kala, on August 18. Dozens were killed and many more injured on Wednesday in wildfires that ravaged the mountainous areas in Algeria's east. Authorities said that 2,600 hectares were destroyed as a result of the blazes.

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Insurers braced for losses as Hurricane Beryl breaks records

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Insurers braced for losses as Hurricane Beryl breaks records

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Insurers are bracing themselves for large losses from the Atlantic hurricane season as record-breaking Hurricane Beryl fuels fears that warming oceans will lead to more destructive storms.

Beryl, which is expected to hit Jamaica on Wednesday, became the first Atlantic hurricane this early in the year to develop into a category five storm, the most severe.

Its magnitude and arrival so early in the region’s hurricane season, which starts in June, peaks in August and September and runs until November, has already hit shares of some insurers and reinsurers.

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“It’s being felt that we are overdue for a bad season,” Stephen Catlin, executive chair at insurer Convex and a veteran of the insurance market, told the Financial Times. “Having an early hurricane of this magnitude suggests that might be the case.”

A variety of factors contribute to the intensity of hurricanes, but climate scientists have highlighted the effects of warming oceans and rising sea levels. The head of the UN’s climate arm said climate change was “pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction”.

Meteorologists at AccuWeather said the storm could bring “significant flooding, coastal inundation, and wind damage” to Jamaica, after it caused widespread damage in Grenada and St Vincent and the Grenadines, and left several people dead. 

The insurance industry was already expecting a busier hurricane season after a quieter 2023. In May, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned that there was an 85 per cent higher chance of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, citing several factors including warmer oceans. 

Steve Bowen, chief science officer at reinsurance broker Gallagher Re, said it was a “remarkable, concerning, and ominous start” to the Atlantic hurricane season and should be a “massive wake-up call” on the outlook for losses.

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Bowen said we were seeing the results of ocean waters that were “as warm in June as they typically should be in September”, which for storms provide “proverbial rocket fuel”.

While any financial losses from Beryl’s impact on Jamaica are expected to be manageable, industry executives said the storm’s future path remained unclear. It has since been downgraded to a category 4 storm.

“It could continue west into Mexico, or curve into the Gulf and then on to the US,” noted analysts at Twelve Capital. Hurricane Harvey in 2017, one of the costliest US storms, struck the Caribbean before heading into the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall at Texas. 

It is too early for reliable estimates of insurance claims, but attention is focused on the Caribbean public-backed risk pools and catastrophe bonds, a form of reinsurance where risks are shared with investors.

Last month, the World Bank renewed its $150mn catastrophe bond covering Jamaica against big named storms, which if triggered would mean some losses for investors.

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How the Atlantic hurricane season unfolds will be critical to the path of prices in the global property reinsurance market, which property insurers use to lay off their risks. Prices have surged in recent years.

Robert Muir-Wood, chief research officer for insurance at rating agency Moody’s, said there was now “every indication this is an intense hurricane season likely to break more records”.
 

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Trump gets edge over Biden nationally and across battlegrounds after debate as Democrats’ turnout in question — CBS News poll

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Trump gets edge over Biden nationally and across battlegrounds after debate as Democrats’ turnout in question — CBS News poll

The race for president has shifted in Donald Trump’s direction following the first 2024 presidential debate.  Trump now has a 3-point edge over President Biden across the battleground states collectively, and a 2-point edge nationally.

A big factor here is motivation, not just persuasion: Democrats are not as likely as Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote now. 

Perhaps befitting a race with two well-known candidates and a heavily partisan electorate, over 90% of both Mr. Biden’s and Trump’s supporters say they would never even consider the other candidate, as was the case before the debate, which helps explain why the race has been fairly stable for months. Recall that Mr. Biden had gained a bit back in June, after Trump was convicted of felonies in New York, but that didn’t dramatically alter the race either. 

That said, the preference contest today does imply an Electoral College advantage for Trump. 

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Meanwhile, half of Mr. Biden’s 2020 voters don’t think he should be running this year — and when they don’t think so, they are less likely to say they’ll turn out in 2024, and also more likely to pick someone else, either Trump or a third-party candidate.

Trump, for his part, finds most Republicans feeling bolstered after the debate, saying it made them more likely to vote. And independents remain tightly contested, with Trump narrowly edging up with them now.

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Nationwide, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely turn out in 2024. And Republicans currently have a similarly sized turnout advantage across the battleground states, undergirding Trump’s edge with likely voters there.

When Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West are included in a national ballot test, Trump’s national edge over Mr. Biden expands to four points. Kennedy draws roughly equally from both candidates, but Mr. Biden cedes a little more to Stein and West, bringing down his overall percentage. 

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For many voters, both candidates’ ages are a factor, not just Mr. Biden’s. When people see an equivalence there, Mr. Biden benefits: he leads Trump among those who say both.

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The trouble for Mr. Biden is that he trails badly among those for whom only his age is a factor. 

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Immediately following the debate, CBS News’ polling showed increasing numbers of voters believing Mr. Biden did not have the cognitive health for the job and that he should not be running. A large seven in 10 still say he should not be running. (It’s three points fewer now than immediately after the debate, perhaps because the Biden campaign pushed back on the idea, but remains the dominant view among voters, and of a sizable four-in-10 share of Democrats.)

Mr. Biden did not gain any ground on Trump on a number of personal qualities: Trump leads Mr. Biden on being seen as competent, tough, and focused. The president continues to be seen as more compassionate.

CBS News considers the battlegrounds as the states most likely to decide the election in the Electoral College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 2,826 registered voters nationwide interviewed between June 28-July 2, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.3 points. Battlegrounds are  AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI. 

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Hawksmoor restaurant chain up for sale

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Hawksmoor restaurant chain up for sale

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Hawksmoor has been put up for sale in a deal that could value the restaurant chain at about £100mn, according to two people familiar with the matter, as it seeks to grow its international footprint.

Investment bank Stephens, which has been hired to run a sales process, has started speaking to potential buyers, the people said. Graphite Capital has owned 51 per cent of Hawksmoor since 2013.

Hawksmoor chief executive and co-founder Will Beckett and another co-founder Huw Gott, who own a minority stake, will retain their shareholding to continue to lead the company, one of the people added.

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Graphite Capital said it did not comment on “market rumour” and Stephens declined to comment.

Hawksmoor did not comment on whether it was up for sale but Beckett said in a statement: “We’ve got a great relationship with Graphite, and together we are getting to know the US investment community in more depth. As that continues, an opportunity may emerge that we wish to explore together.”

Meanwhile, Rare Restaurants, the owner of rival steakhouse Gaucho, is also exploring a sale of the business having appointed Clearwater M&A advisers, two people familiar with the matter said. One person said Rare was yet to start the process, as it was not under financial pressure. Rare Restaurants and Clearwater declined to comment.

London-based Hawksmoor’s sales process comes as the chain, which operates 13 locations, including 10 in the UK, continues expanding abroad having opened in Chicago last week.

It follows Hawksmoor’s debut US site in New York in 2021 and the launch of another venue in Dublin last year.

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The company, which opened its first outlet in 2006 in east London as a place to buy better-quality steak, said last week that sales were expected to top £100mn this year with “consistent like-for-like growth”.

One person close to the company said underlying profits for the 12 months to the end of June were above £10mn, and that it aimed to expand further in the US.

In 2021, Hawksmoor shelved plans for a flotation amid uncertainty in the hospitality industry caused by Covid lockdowns, shortages of labour and supply chain disruption. The chain had been working with Berenberg private bank on the plans.

Despite surging inflation and the cost of living crisis, the UK hospitality industry has witnessed several large deals. Last year, Apollo acquired Wagamama-owner The Restaurant Group for £506mn, while Japanese group Zensho acquired Yo! Sushi owner Snowfox Group for £490mn.

Earlier this year, London-based Equistone Partners sold its stake in catering company CH&CO to the world’s largest catering group Compass in a £475mn deal.

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The exploration of a sale for Hawksmoor comes as private equity groups face pressure to sell some of their record $3tn in unsold assets in order to return cash to their backers.

Global takeovers in the first half of the year climbed 22 per cent by value thanks to a rebound in big deals, but the total number of mergers and acquisitions fell to a four-year low because of a slowdown in smaller transactions.

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