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US and NATO officials struggle to decipher status of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine

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US and NATO officials struggle to decipher status of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators have met 4 occasions because the begin of Russia’s invasion.

Russian International Minister Sergey Lavrov weighed in on the potential for Ukraine agreeing to impartial standing throughout a media occasion in Moscow on Saturday.

“After our operation in Ukraine ends, and I hope its ends with a signing of a complete settlement on the problems I discussed — safety points, Ukraine’s impartial standing with the ensures of its safety as (Putin), a few months in the past as I recall, commented at a information convention on our initiative of non-expansion of NATO, he stated we understood each nation wants ensures of its safety,” stated Lavrov.

However particulars on negotiations stay scant with many NATO international locations, together with the US, remaining on the surface wanting in with regards to the secretive talks, with one European protection official calling negotiations “a little bit of a darkish avenue proper now.”

The Biden administration nonetheless sees no indication that Putin is keen or able to deescalate the battle — making it tough for US officers to be optimistic concerning the present state of negotiations, one supply conversant in the state of affairs stated.

However on the identical time, this supply additionally stated that the US just isn’t pressuring Ukraine to just accept or reject particular concessions and isn’t concerned within the negotiation course of.

The US Nationwide Safety Council declined to remark.

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Russian calls for

Among the phrases Ukraine has stated it could be keen to think about appear extra possible than others, however on the finish of the day, NATO international locations are nonetheless skeptical of Russia’s engagement.

“It is vitally shut maintain, and nobody actually is aware of what is going on on,” the European protection official stated. “Ukraine’s positions have not modified — ceasefire, withdrawal of troops and safety ensures.”

“Anybody who says they know one thing concerning the standing of the talks, (they) actually do not,” the official added.

Putin laid out a number of points to attain a ceasefire with Ukraine in a Thursday telephone name with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in keeping with Turkish presidential spokesman İbrahim Kalin.

“The primary is Ukraine’s neutrality,” Kalin stated in an interview with the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet revealed Saturday, including that might imply Ukraine agreeing to not develop into a NATO member. “Second, disarmament and mutual safety ensures within the context of the Austrian mannequin. Third, the method that the Russian facet refers to as ‘de-Nazification.’ Fourth, eradicating obstacles to the widespread use of Russian language in Ukraine. It’s understood that some progress has been made within the first 4 articles of the continued negotiations. It’s too early to say that there’s full settlement or that an settlement is about to be signed.”

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Kalin stated Putin had further calls for that have been “probably the most tough points” — the popularity of the annexation of Crimea and the 2 so-called republics in Donbas. Kalin stated these closing two points “aren’t acceptable calls for for Ukraine and the worldwide group.”
Why Donbas is at the heart of the Ukraine crisis

“If a degree is reached within the first 4 articles and an settlement is reached, there could be a dialogue on the leaders’ degree concerning the fifth and sixth articles,” Kalin stated within the interview, including that if the negotiations happen, “it could be attainable to succeed in an settlement and finish the warfare.”

US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Sunday declined to set phrases on what the US would or wouldn’t settle for when it got here to an settlement between Ukraine and Russia to finish the combating.

“That is for the Ukrainians themselves to resolve what’s an excessive amount of for them. It isn’t our choice on that and we assist their efforts. So I am unable to preview what they are going to find yourself developing of their negotiations with the Russians,” she instructed CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”

Requested by Tapper once more, if the US would acknowledge Crimea or Donbas as part of Russia ought to that be part of the settlement, Thomas-Greenfield once more declined to reply.

“I am unable to say that in the mean time. We definitely haven’t acknowledged the impartial Donbas areas simply declared as impartial. However I am unable to assessment how we are going to reply to a negotiated settlement that the Ukrainians give you the Russians to save lots of the lives of their very own folks.”

The shortage of readability concerning the standing of negotiations is elevating further questions on what Ukraine is keen to conform to and the way Russia’s calls for could be carried out in the event that they finally attain some form of settlement.

Zelenksky stated Saturday there have been “compromises” his nation couldn’t make in negotiations with Putin.

“Any compromises associated to our territorial integrity and our sovereignty and the Ukrainian folks have spoken about it, they haven’t greeted Russian troopers with a bunch of flowers, they’ve greeted them with bravery, they’ve greeted them with weapons of their fingers,” he instructed CNN’s Zakaria when requested concerning the Russian calls for.

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“You can not simply make a president of one other nation to acknowledge something by means of pressure,” he added.

Many particulars of Russia’s calls for, whether or not Ukraine would settle for them and the way Ukraine would even implement them stay unclear, a senior NATO official stated. That features what it could imply for Ukraine to undertake a “impartial” standing with the West — a chance that one congressional supply instructed CNN has brought about heartburn for US officers.

“Does that imply they forswear NATO? Does that imply they forswear the (European Union)? Can they not have another exterior help?” the NATO official stated. “My sense is it may be a really complicated negotiation.”

Neutrality coverage

A European diplomat instructed CNN final week that if Ukraine have been to undertake a neutrality coverage and in addition demilitarize, it could successfully be a give up — calling such a transfer “Moscow-style neutrality.”

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The Kremlin has floated the notion that Kyiv may undertake a Swedish or Austrian neutrality coverage. Nonetheless, a Swedish diplomat dismissed the notion of Swedish neutrality, saying the concept that their nation is impartial just isn’t true and makes an attempt to attempt to body it as such are according to longstanding Russian efforts to misrepresent Sweden’s nationwide safety coverage.

Nordic countries wonder if they are next on Putin's list

“Each time the time period ‘Austrian neutrality’ comes up, it must be remembered that this can be a mannequin of an armed neutrality. This type of neutrality does not imply {that a} nation lies down its arms and hopes that no person assaults it. It is a neutrality the place a rustic — at the least in concept — is armed and able to defend itself towards all overseas belligerents,” stated Martin Weiss, Austria’s ambassador to the US.

The NATO official added that it’s unclear what sort of settlement Russia and Ukraine would possibly come to concerning the territory Russia has taken management of since invading on February 24. The official stated the “hope” expressed by each Russian and Ukrainian officers in current days seems to be belied by the truth that “some fairly clear variations stay” between the events.

“I feel we simply must be aware that the Russians virtually definitely will search to proceed to resupply and can most likely proceed to combat, up till the time that issues are agreed,” the official stated. “Regardless of the resolution, if there’s diplomatic decision and there is an settlement, it must be clear and binding. And it must be monitorable. … Individuals will likely be wanting to make sure that the Russians finish the warfare conclusively. And there is not some lingering menace that is still.”

Whereas the supply conversant in the Biden administration’s view of the talks instructed CNN that a number of the phrases Ukraine has stated it could be keen to think about appear extra possible than others, the supply additionally indicated that the US will likely be cautious of Russia’s intentions till Putin exhibits some indicators that he’s able to deescalate.

CNN’s Kylie Atwood, Jennifer Hansler and Jasmine Wright contributed to this report

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Russia launches Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system

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Russia launches Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system

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Russia has carried out a Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system, leaving more than half a million people without heating, water and electricity. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attack, the 13th large-scale assault of 2024 on the country’s grid, was “deliberate” and not a coincidence. “What could be more inhuman?” he wrote on X.

About 50 of the 70 missiles fired in the attack were intercepted, along with a “significant” portion of the more than 100 attack drones deployed, he added.

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This year Ukrainians marked Christmas Day on December 25 for the second time, after switching to the western Gregorian calendar last year. The decision to stop celebrating Christmas on January 7 in line with the Orthodox calendar was made by Kyiv to break with Russian influence.

Oleh Syniehubov, governor of Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region, told Ukraine’s national television news that the attack had left more than 500,000 people without heating, water and electricity.

Temperatures across Ukraine are around freezing point.

Heating supplies were also cut in some areas of Ukraine’s Ivano-Frankivsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, in the west and south of the country. 

Ukraine’s energy grid operator, Ukrenergo, urged consumers to limit consumption by not switching on multiple appliances at once, adding that the system was still recovering from the previous Russian attack on December 13.

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Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, said that its power stations had been damaged and one of its long-term employees killed.

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andriy Sybiha, said on X that the attack reflects Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to “those who spoke about illusionary ‘Christmas ceasefire’”.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said last week that Zelenskyy had rejected his proposal for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange on the January 7 Orthodox Christmas.

Ukraine denied that such a proposal was ever on the table, asking Hungary to “refrain from manipulations” regarding the war. On Friday, Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, described it as “PR, a move” by Orbán.

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American Airlines lifts ground stop that froze Christmas Eve travelers

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American Airlines lifts ground stop that froze Christmas Eve travelers

An American Airlines agent talks to a customer at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Ill., last week. On Tuesday, the airline issued a national halt to flights.

Kamil Krzacznski/AFP via Getty Images


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Kamil Krzacznski/AFP via Getty Images

American Airlines passengers across the U.S. endured a sudden disruption of service on Christmas Eve, as a “technical issue” forced the airline to request a nationwide ground stop of its operations.

“The ground stop has now been lifted,” the Federal Aviation Administration told NPR shortly after 8 a.m. ET.

On Facebook and X, passengers shared stories of boarding planes early on Christmas Eve — only to be left waiting on the tarmac. In some cases, they described being told the flight would return to its gate so everyone onboard could deplane.

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The ground stop lasted for about one hour, according to the airline.

 “We sincerely apologize to our customers for the inconvenience this morning,” the airline said.

In a statement sent to NPR, American says the widespread delays were caused by a “vendor technology issue” affecting systems that are needed for a flight to be “released” — one of the final key steps before a plane takes off from an airport.

Early circumstances around Tuesday’s outage seemed ominous, reminding travelers of a nightmare scenario that played out two years ago when computer problems fueled a meltdown for Southwest Airlines as it tried to cope with bad weather during the holidays.

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Southwest stranded millions of travelers — and was later ordered to pay a $140 million civil penalty.

Aviation industry veterans like George Hamlin, a consultant, notes that Southwest took the brunt of the blame for the meltdown — but, he adds, “now we’re finding out that it’s a larger, more endemic problem than that.”

Delayed American Airlines passengers who posted to social media Tuesday said pilots blamed the slowdown on a computer system that aims to ensure an optimal center of gravity by balancing planes’ cargo weight and other factors.

Winter weather also threatens to snarl Christmas Eve travel, including storms along the East and West Coasts of the U.S.

The FAA’s operations page shows nearly a dozen airports were deicing planes Tuesday morning, including at Philadelphia International, and Dulles International and Reagan National outside Washington, D.C.

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If you’re flying, the FAA recommends checking your airline’s flight status updates for potential delays. As of 9 a.m. ET, the FlightAware website’s “Misery Map” showed some 544 flights had been delayed and five canceled since 6 a.m. Nearly 120 of those delays were at Charlotte, N.C.’s, airport.

Nearly 12.7 million passengers are expected to fly on American Airlines this winter holiday season, comprising more than 118,000 flights, according to the airline. The most-traveled days in that span are both Fridays, ahead of and just after Christmas.

NPR’s Joel Rose contributed reporting.

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Private equity payouts fell 50% short in 2024

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Private equity payouts fell 50% short in 2024

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Private equity funds cashed out just half the value of investments they typically sell in 2024, the third consecutive year payouts to investors have fallen short because of a deal drought.

Buyout houses typically sell down 20 per cent of their investments in any given year, but industry executives forecast that cash payouts for the year would be about half that figure.

Cambridge Associates, a leading adviser to large institutions on their private equity investments, estimated that funds had fallen about $400bn short in payments to their investors over the past three years compared with historical averages.

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The data underline the increasing pressure on firms to find ways to return cash to investors, including by exiting more investments in the year ahead.

Firms have struggled to strike deals at attractive prices since early 2022, when rising interest rates caused financing costs to soar and corporate valuations to fall.

Dealmakers and their advisers expect that merger and acquisition activity will accelerate in 2025, potentially helping the industry work through what consultancy Bain & Co. has called a “towering backlog” of $3tn in ageing deals that must be sold in the years ahead.

Several large public offerings this year including food transport giant Lineage Logistics, aviation equipment specialist Standard Aero and dermatology group Galderma have provided private equity executives with confidence to take companies public, while Donald Trump’s election has added to Wall Street exuberance.

But Andrea Auerbach, global head of private investments at Cambridge Associates, cautioned that the industry’s issues could take years to work through.

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“There is an expectation that the wheels of the exit market will start to turn. But it doesn’t end in one year, it will take a couple of years,” Auerbach said.

Private equity firms have used novel tactics to return cash to investors while holdings have proved difficult to sell.

They have made increasing use of so-called continuation funds — where one fund sells a stake in one or more portfolio companies to another fund to another fund the firm manages — to engineer exits.

Jefferies forecasts that there will be $58bn of continuation fund deals in 2024, representing a record 14 per cent of all private equity exits. Such funds made up just 5 per cent of all exits in the boom year of 2021, Jefferies found.

But some private equity investors are sceptical that the industry will be able to sell assets at prices close to funds’ current valuations.

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“You have a huge amount of capital that has been invested on assumptions that are no longer valid,” a large industry investor told the Financial Times.

They warned that a record $1tn-plus in buyouts were struck in 2021, just before interest rates rose, and many deals are carried on firms’ books at overly optimistic valuations.

Goldman Sachs recently noted in a report that private equity asset sales, which had historically been done at a premium of at least 10 per cent to funds’ internal valuations, have in recent years been made at discounts of 10-15 per cent.

“[Private] equity in general is still over-marked, which is leading to this situation where assets are still stuck,” said Michael Brandmeyer of Goldman Sachs Asset Management in the report.

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