On both sides of the Atlantic, one of the oldest patterns in electoral demographics has started to break down.
The strongest predictor of a swing away from the Labour party in this year’s UK general election was the Muslim share of the electorate, while the Conservatives’ best results came in areas with large Hindu populations. Overall, Labour won less than half of the non-white vote for the first time on record.
In the US, the majority-Hispanic Rio Grande valley swung sharply towards Donald Trump in 2020, Vietnamese Americans in California deserted the Democrats, and majority-Black neighbourhoods in Philadelphia became decidedly less blue. Republicans performed better with non-white voters four years ago than at any time since 1960.
There is always a danger of over-interpreting upsets, and it should be noted that non-white Britons and Americans as a whole still lean leftward. But countervailing results are becoming steadily less exceptional. More importantly, these examples highlight something that has always been true but often ignored: ethnic minority voters are not a homogenous bloc.
Measuring public opinion among small and hard-to-reach groups is challenging. But this week a groundbreaking new study by the think-tank UK in a Changing Europe and polling company Focaldata did just that, shedding light on the wide range of attitudes and priorities among different minority groups in Britain. It found that they were often closer to the conservative than progressive end of the spectrum.
To take one example, 22 per cent of ethnic minority Britons say it’s important to them that the government keeps taxes low. This is almost exactly the same as the figure among white Conservative voters, and far higher than the 14 per cent of white Labour voters who hold this view.
Similarly, while 37 per cent of white university-educated Labour voters say the government should take a strong stand on social justice issues, only 25 per cent of minority voters agree, falling to 21 per cent among British Indians — closer to the 14 per cent of white Conservatives who take the same view.
These patterns are consistent with the idea that post-materialist politics have become increasingly common among those who have already reached a comfortable position in society, but those still climbing their way up — ethnic minorities among them — often still have primarily material concerns.
The situation is similar in the US, where the sharp leftward turn among educated white liberals has caused white Democrats to overshoot the minority position on a growing number of issues, including immigration, racism, patriotism and meritocracy.
White progressive Americans now hold views on these culture questions that are completely out of line with the average Black or Hispanic voter, according to analysis from pollster Echelon Insights.
To be clear, hardline US conservatives are just as far from minority opinion in the opposite direction. But where, historically, the left was the natural home for non-white Americans, that is growing less obviously the case. In terms of self-reported political ideology, Americans of colour are now roughly equidistant between white progressives and conservatives.
These shifts are particularly notable in election campaigns in both countries. In the US, Kamala Harris’s tough stance on immigration at the southern border is not a betrayal of the Democrats’ diverse base; it brings her closer to the typical non-white American’s policy preferences.
In the UK, the Conservative party leadership contest between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick takes on a new significance when framed in the context of these findings. A Tory party focused on economic aspiration and helmed by a British Nigerian could well make inroads into the large population of conservative-aligned minority Britons whose right-leaning values and vote choice have not yet lined up.
Next month’s US election will come down to very fine margins while old party allegiances in the British electorate are breaking down. It has never been more important to understand where public opinion really lies.
Politicians of all stripes would be wise to start listening to what different ethnic minority voters actually want, instead of relying on increasingly erroneous stereotypes or painting highly heterogeneous groups with one broad brush.
john.burn-murdoch@ft.com, @jburnmurdoch