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Stay or go? Western consumer brands wrestle with Russian dilemma

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Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has led to an exodus of well-known western manufacturers from Russia, however not each firm has joined the frenzy.

As Apple has suspended gross sales and BP hurriedly introduced its exit over the previous two weeks, these multinationals that manufacture merchandise that Russians depend on for day by day life, from meals by means of child formulation to non-public care objects, have wrestled with the choice on whether or not to remain.

Moreover supplying staples for the reason that fall of the Soviet Union, these corporations, together with US mushy drinks group PepsiCo and UK family items maker Unilever, sometimes have important manufacturing operations in Russia and make use of hundreds of native employees.

“You’re damned if you happen to do [pull out] and also you’re damned if you happen to don’t,” mentioned promoting veteran Sir Martin Sorrell, who now runs digital advertising firm S4 Capital, referring to the quandary going through the businesses.

Some customers within the west need manufacturers to go away, Sorrell mentioned. “You see the atrocities which are being dedicated, and clearly it’s going to stir super feelings in individuals, fairly rightly.” However corporations persevering with to provide fundamental items have been doing so largely “as a result of they don’t need the inhabitants to endure greater than they’re struggling already”.

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In an obvious domino impact, a number of world corporations introduced withdrawals from Russia on Tuesday and Wednesday. These included PepsiCo and Unilever however the halt to their operations was solely partial. PepsiCo, for instance, which employs 20,000 individuals in Russia, is suspending gross sales of world drinks manufacturers together with its namesake cola, however sustaining gross sales of meals and native manufacturers, together with from its massive dairy operation.

Containers of confectionery in manufacturing at Rossiya chocolate manufacturing facility, operated by Nestlé, in Samara, Russia, The world’s largest meals producer has halted funding into Russia however will nonetheless promote merchandise there © Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

Christopher Rossbach, managing accomplice at fund supervisor J Stern & Co, mentioned: “Corporations ought to make a distinction between what are important items like fundamental meals or toddler diet, and extra discretionary ones. It’s a troublesome line to attract.”

Some client multinationals, equivalent to Dettol maker Reckitt Benckiser and cigarette maker Japan Tobacco, proceed to function in Russia. Grocery store operators equivalent to France’s Auchan and Germany’s Metro have additionally opted to remain, an strategy that contrasts with another retailers equivalent to Inditex, father or mother firm of trend chain Zara, which has shuttered shops however retained its 9,000 employees.

But corporations equivalent to French dairy producer Danone, the world’s largest meals producer Nestlé, confectionery and pet foodmaker Mars, and UK tobacco group Philip Morris have taken measures equivalent to freezing new funding into the nation however persevering with to promote there, or halting gross sales of worldwide manufacturers whereas persevering with to make and promote native merchandise. Coca-Cola has mentioned it’s “suspending” its Russian enterprise with out giving specifics.

Danish brewer Carlsberg, which owns Russia’s largest brewery Baltika and has 8,400 workers, or about 20 per cent of its world workforce, there, initially halted funding and exports however then went additional just a few days later by vowing to not produce or promote its flagship Carlsberg model in Russia. It mentioned it will overview “a full vary of strategic choices” for its Russian enterprise.

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For the reason that invasion on February 24, greater than 300 corporations have halted Russian operations, based on Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a Yale Faculty of Administration professor — far exceeding the 200 huge corporations that give up South Africa over apartheid within the Eighties.

Sonnenfeld argues all western corporations ought to give up Russia to assist gasoline discontent towards Putin. “The entire level of those financial blockades is to carry the economic system to a standstill and create misery,” he mentioned.

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For a lot of client items teams, Russia makes up 3 per cent or much less of gross sales, which means the impression of halting operations can be restricted. Among the many extra uncovered are Danone, Henkel and Carlsberg, which earned about 10 per cent of revenues in Russia and suspended its annual monetary steerage due to the fallout.

But western governments haven’t pushed client manufacturers to go away, a number of corporations mentioned — except Ukraine itself, which has applauded these pulling out.

Buyers’ views on the difficulty range. Final week the New York State Frequent Retirement Fund, which manages $280bn of belongings, urged client teams to give up Russia. However one other investor mentioned nations halting provides of fundamental items would threat “doing fairly main hurt to the inhabitants who in lots of instances don’t want any a part of this warfare”.

Ben Ritchie, head of European equities at fund supervisor Abrdn, a shareholder in corporations together with Unilever and Coca-Cola HBC, the US group’s bottler within the area, mentioned: “I don’t assume buyers would put client items corporations underneath stress to exit Russia with out absolutely understanding their obligations within the nation, and the monetary prices and penalties of doing so.

“The patron items corporations sometimes have contractual obligations to suppliers, franchise companions and distributors, which makes the state of affairs far more advanced than promoting on to the general public.”

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A senior member of Russia’s ruling social gathering, United Russia, this week raised the stakes by threatening to nationalise foreign-owned factories which have halted operations due to the warfare. “That is an excessive measure, however we won’t tolerate being stabbed within the again,” mentioned the secretary of the social gathering’s basic council, Andrei Turchak.

An adviser to US client items teams mentioned the Russia dilemma had prompted “nonstop board calls and CEO conferences. They’re instantly involved about ‘will our workers even get jailed or arrested for closing out a enterprise?’”

But corporations face criticism for persevering with to function in Russia from customers and their very own workers exterior the nation, mentioned Niklas Schaffmeister, managing accomplice at model consultancy GlobeOne. “Internally there may be a lot exercise, and even hate speech on [company] intranets the place persons are actually pushed to the acute.”

Cosmetics teams L’Oréal and Estée Lauder illustrate the diverging response amongst client teams. L’Oréal, which has 2,000 workers in Russia, has halted on-line gross sales and closed the few dozen shops it operates immediately, however the overwhelming majority of its merchandise like shampoo and skincare will nonetheless be on the market by means of native retailers. Estée Lauder went additional, suspending all business exercise within the nation, saying it wanted to “take actions in keeping with our firm values”.

Analysts mentioned the response to the warfare additionally has roots in a rising expectation that chief executives will handle social points equivalent to racism, together with sustainability. But corporations are cautious of creating political pronouncements and “don’t wish to be seen to do a Ben & Jerry’s, weighing in on each concern,” mentioned Nicholas Fereday, an analyst at Rabobank.

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The Unilever-owned ice cream maker prompted a social media backlash earlier than the Ukraine invasion by urging the US president to not “fire up warfare” by sending extra troops to Europe.

There are additionally issues over different large-scale human rights violations. “Does an organization should take a view on dreadful occasions everywhere in the world? China is within the wings, in fact,” Fereday mentioned. “Are client manufacturers going to solely promote in democratic nations?”

It’s a delicate line to tread. When Dolf van den Brink, chief govt of Heineken, introduced on LinkedIn the corporate’s €1mn donation to help “individuals impacted by this horrible disaster”, dozens of feedback criticised the response as weak. One former worker of 21 years mentioned: “Freeze your operations in Russia so long as this aggression lasts . . . The longer you wait, the larger the picture losses. I wish to be happy with Heineken once more.”

The brewer has subsequently halted new investments into Russia, exports of its worldwide manufacturers to the nation and gross sales of the Heineken model in what it known as an “unprecedented” transfer, although it would nonetheless promote native manufacturers. Van den Brink added to his publish a condemnation of Russia’s “unprovoked and utterly unjustified assault”.

Manufacturers concentrating on youthful customers really feel stress to withdraw, mentioned Yerlan Syzdykov, world head of rising markets at Amundi, Europe’s largest asset supervisor. “The west is making an attempt to cancel Russia. These western manufacturers who affiliate themselves with a youthful era, who’re going to cease shopping for your items if you happen to’re not becoming a member of that cancel tradition, would be the first to tug [out].”

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Some teams privately say they’re contemplating further measures together with discovering various sources for Russian-origin substances and firming down social media posts, even these unrelated to Russia, to keep away from a backlash.

Most suspensions to this point are momentary however might herald a everlasting withdrawal. Heineken mentioned it was “assessing our strategic choices for the way forward for our Russian operations”.

Some executives look like battling the concept that promoting their merchandise in Russia is now seen as a political assertion. Dieter Weisskopf, chief govt of Lindt & Sprüngli, confronted questions at a outcomes briefing this week on the corporate’s choice to proceed its small Russian operation. He mentioned: “We’re not supplying arms or petrol, bear that in thoughts. However we’re monitoring the state of affairs carefully.”

A day later, Lindt modified course and mentioned it will briefly shut its retailers in Russia.

Reporting by Judith Evans, Leila Abboud, Harriet Agnew, Alistair Grey, Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson and Ian Johnston

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This story has been amended to replace Lindt’s place on Russia.

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Insurers braced for losses as Hurricane Beryl breaks records

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Insurers braced for losses as Hurricane Beryl breaks records

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Insurers are bracing themselves for large losses from the Atlantic hurricane season as record-breaking Hurricane Beryl fuels fears that warming oceans will lead to more destructive storms.

Beryl, which is expected to hit Jamaica on Wednesday, became the first Atlantic hurricane this early in the year to develop into a category five storm, the most severe.

Its magnitude and arrival so early in the region’s hurricane season, which starts in June, peaks in August and September and runs until November, has already hit shares of some insurers and reinsurers.

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“It’s being felt that we are overdue for a bad season,” Stephen Catlin, executive chair at insurer Convex and a veteran of the insurance market, told the Financial Times. “Having an early hurricane of this magnitude suggests that might be the case.”

A variety of factors contribute to the intensity of hurricanes, but climate scientists have highlighted the effects of warming oceans and rising sea levels. The head of the UN’s climate arm said climate change was “pushing disasters to record-breaking new levels of destruction”.

Meteorologists at AccuWeather said the storm could bring “significant flooding, coastal inundation, and wind damage” to Jamaica, after it caused widespread damage in Grenada and St Vincent and the Grenadines, and left several people dead. 

The insurance industry was already expecting a busier hurricane season after a quieter 2023. In May, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned that there was an 85 per cent higher chance of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, citing several factors including warmer oceans. 

Steve Bowen, chief science officer at reinsurance broker Gallagher Re, said it was a “remarkable, concerning, and ominous start” to the Atlantic hurricane season and should be a “massive wake-up call” on the outlook for losses.

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Bowen said we were seeing the results of ocean waters that were “as warm in June as they typically should be in September”, which for storms provide “proverbial rocket fuel”.

While any financial losses from Beryl’s impact on Jamaica are expected to be manageable, industry executives said the storm’s future path remained unclear. It has since been downgraded to a category 4 storm.

“It could continue west into Mexico, or curve into the Gulf and then on to the US,” noted analysts at Twelve Capital. Hurricane Harvey in 2017, one of the costliest US storms, struck the Caribbean before heading into the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall at Texas. 

It is too early for reliable estimates of insurance claims, but attention is focused on the Caribbean public-backed risk pools and catastrophe bonds, a form of reinsurance where risks are shared with investors.

Last month, the World Bank renewed its $150mn catastrophe bond covering Jamaica against big named storms, which if triggered would mean some losses for investors.

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How the Atlantic hurricane season unfolds will be critical to the path of prices in the global property reinsurance market, which property insurers use to lay off their risks. Prices have surged in recent years.

Robert Muir-Wood, chief research officer for insurance at rating agency Moody’s, said there was now “every indication this is an intense hurricane season likely to break more records”.
 

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Trump gets edge over Biden nationally and across battlegrounds after debate as Democrats’ turnout in question — CBS News poll

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Trump gets edge over Biden nationally and across battlegrounds after debate as Democrats’ turnout in question — CBS News poll

The race for president has shifted in Donald Trump’s direction following the first 2024 presidential debate.  Trump now has a 3-point edge over President Biden across the battleground states collectively, and a 2-point edge nationally.

A big factor here is motivation, not just persuasion: Democrats are not as likely as Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote now. 

Perhaps befitting a race with two well-known candidates and a heavily partisan electorate, over 90% of both Mr. Biden’s and Trump’s supporters say they would never even consider the other candidate, as was the case before the debate, which helps explain why the race has been fairly stable for months. Recall that Mr. Biden had gained a bit back in June, after Trump was convicted of felonies in New York, but that didn’t dramatically alter the race either. 

That said, the preference contest today does imply an Electoral College advantage for Trump. 

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Meanwhile, half of Mr. Biden’s 2020 voters don’t think he should be running this year — and when they don’t think so, they are less likely to say they’ll turn out in 2024, and also more likely to pick someone else, either Trump or a third-party candidate.

Trump, for his part, finds most Republicans feeling bolstered after the debate, saying it made them more likely to vote. And independents remain tightly contested, with Trump narrowly edging up with them now.

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Nationwide, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely turn out in 2024. And Republicans currently have a similarly sized turnout advantage across the battleground states, undergirding Trump’s edge with likely voters there.

When Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West are included in a national ballot test, Trump’s national edge over Mr. Biden expands to four points. Kennedy draws roughly equally from both candidates, but Mr. Biden cedes a little more to Stein and West, bringing down his overall percentage. 

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For many voters, both candidates’ ages are a factor, not just Mr. Biden’s. When people see an equivalence there, Mr. Biden benefits: he leads Trump among those who say both.

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The trouble for Mr. Biden is that he trails badly among those for whom only his age is a factor. 

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Immediately following the debate, CBS News’ polling showed increasing numbers of voters believing Mr. Biden did not have the cognitive health for the job and that he should not be running. A large seven in 10 still say he should not be running. (It’s three points fewer now than immediately after the debate, perhaps because the Biden campaign pushed back on the idea, but remains the dominant view among voters, and of a sizable four-in-10 share of Democrats.)

Mr. Biden did not gain any ground on Trump on a number of personal qualities: Trump leads Mr. Biden on being seen as competent, tough, and focused. The president continues to be seen as more compassionate.

CBS News considers the battlegrounds as the states most likely to decide the election in the Electoral College: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 2,826 registered voters nationwide interviewed between June 28-July 2, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.3 points. Battlegrounds are  AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI. 

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Hawksmoor restaurant chain up for sale

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Hawksmoor restaurant chain up for sale

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Hawksmoor has been put up for sale in a deal that could value the restaurant chain at about £100mn, according to two people familiar with the matter, as it seeks to grow its international footprint.

Investment bank Stephens, which has been hired to run a sales process, has started speaking to potential buyers, the people said. Graphite Capital has owned 51 per cent of Hawksmoor since 2013.

Hawksmoor chief executive and co-founder Will Beckett and another co-founder Huw Gott, who own a minority stake, will retain their shareholding to continue to lead the company, one of the people added.

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Graphite Capital said it did not comment on “market rumour” and Stephens declined to comment.

Hawksmoor did not comment on whether it was up for sale but Beckett said in a statement: “We’ve got a great relationship with Graphite, and together we are getting to know the US investment community in more depth. As that continues, an opportunity may emerge that we wish to explore together.”

Meanwhile, Rare Restaurants, the owner of rival steakhouse Gaucho, is also exploring a sale of the business having appointed Clearwater M&A advisers, two people familiar with the matter said. One person said Rare was yet to start the process, as it was not under financial pressure. Rare Restaurants and Clearwater declined to comment.

London-based Hawksmoor’s sales process comes as the chain, which operates 13 locations, including 10 in the UK, continues expanding abroad having opened in Chicago last week.

It follows Hawksmoor’s debut US site in New York in 2021 and the launch of another venue in Dublin last year.

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The company, which opened its first outlet in 2006 in east London as a place to buy better-quality steak, said last week that sales were expected to top £100mn this year with “consistent like-for-like growth”.

One person close to the company said underlying profits for the 12 months to the end of June were above £10mn, and that it aimed to expand further in the US.

In 2021, Hawksmoor shelved plans for a flotation amid uncertainty in the hospitality industry caused by Covid lockdowns, shortages of labour and supply chain disruption. The chain had been working with Berenberg private bank on the plans.

Despite surging inflation and the cost of living crisis, the UK hospitality industry has witnessed several large deals. Last year, Apollo acquired Wagamama-owner The Restaurant Group for £506mn, while Japanese group Zensho acquired Yo! Sushi owner Snowfox Group for £490mn.

Earlier this year, London-based Equistone Partners sold its stake in catering company CH&CO to the world’s largest catering group Compass in a £475mn deal.

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The exploration of a sale for Hawksmoor comes as private equity groups face pressure to sell some of their record $3tn in unsold assets in order to return cash to their backers.

Global takeovers in the first half of the year climbed 22 per cent by value thanks to a rebound in big deals, but the total number of mergers and acquisitions fell to a four-year low because of a slowdown in smaller transactions.

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