Spy Agencies Cite Russia’s Setbacks but Say Putin Is ‘Unlikely to Be Deterred’

WASHINGTON — High U.S. intelligence officers mentioned on Tuesday that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had been stunned and unsettled by the issues which have hampered his navy in Ukraine, points that can make it tougher for Russian forces to manage the nation.

However Mr. Putin is set to achieve Ukraine, and can attempt to double down and use ever extra brutal techniques, the officers mentioned throughout an look earlier than the Home Intelligence Committee.

America’s intelligence businesses, which earlier than the assault launched data on Russia’s troop buildup and battle plans, will work to spotlight Russian atrocities and crimes, a continuation of the data battle that helped rally the West to impose robust sanctions on Ukraine, the officers mentioned.

Earlier than the invasion, Mr. Putin thought the battle can be comparatively fast, permitting him to quickly seize Kyiv and overwhelm Ukrainian forces, Avril D. Haines, the director of nationwide intelligence, advised lawmakers.

“Moscow underestimated the energy of Ukraine’s resistance and the diploma of inner navy challenges we’re observing, which embrace an ill-constructed plan, morale points and appreciable logistical points,” Ms. Haines mentioned.

Controlling all of Ukraine will necessitate much more forces than Russia has dedicated to the struggle, she mentioned.

Some allied intelligence companies imagine that Mr. Putin’s early navy issues may trigger him to readjust his plans to take management of the entire nation, and cease his advance after he captures Kyiv, significantly if navy officers spotlight what number of further forces it should require to safe Ukraine.

However diplomats are additionally fast so as to add that they aren’t certain how rationally Mr. Putin is viewing the scenario. On the listening to, Ms. Haines mentioned Mr. Putin appeared intent on intensifying his marketing campaign, regardless of his navy’s logistical issues.

“Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks,” Ms. Haines mentioned, “and as an alternative could escalate, primarily doubling down to realize Ukrainian disarmament, neutrality, to forestall it from additional integrating with the U.S. and NATO.”

Given the issues the Russian navy has confronted, and the rising will of Ukraine to struggle, intelligence officers predicted the battle would intensify. William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, is anticipating an “ugly subsequent few weeks.”

“I feel Putin is offended and pissed off proper now,” Mr. Burns mentioned. He’s more likely to “attempt to grind down the Ukrainian navy with no regard for civilian casualties,” he added.

Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier, the director of the Protection Intelligence Company, mentioned there was a restrict to how lengthy Kyiv may maintain on as Russian forces encircled Ukraine and tightened the vise. “With provides being reduce off, it should turn out to be considerably determined in, I might say, 10 days to 2 weeks,” Common Berrier mentioned.

Different estimates are comparable. Some allied governments imagine Russia will end encircling Kyiv in every week and, given the energy of Ukraine’s resistance, the town could possibly maintain out for an additional month, a European diplomat mentioned on Tuesday.

Whereas the intelligence chiefs mentioned Mr. Putin felt aggrieved, Mr. Burns mentioned it will be incorrect to view his actions as loopy.

The Russian chief’s rising isolation and insulation from conflicting views make him “extraordinarily troublesome to cope with,” Mr. Burns mentioned. With out aides prepared to push again, Mr. Putin entered the battle misunderstanding the desire of Ukraine to struggle again and the West to take motion.

Germany, for instance, suspended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline mission, which might have allowed imported Russian pure fuel to bypass Ukraine; despatched weapons on to Ukraine; and expanded its protection funds.

“He’s been unsettled by Western response and allied resolve, significantly among the selections that the German authorities has taken,” Mr. Burns mentioned. “I feel he’s been unsettled by the efficiency of his personal navy.”

Common Berrier mentioned he had low confidence in experiences of Russian casualties, however put Moscow’s losses at 2,000 to 4,000.

Mr. Burns mentioned the American authorities was maintaining an in depth eye on Mr. Putin’s home assist. With state-controlled media dominating what the Russian public hears and impartial reporting on the invasion primarily being made unlawful, it should take time for Russians to “take up the results” of Mr. Putin’s actions.

However, over time, funerals of Russian troopers killed in Ukraine will have an effect, Mr. Burns mentioned.

“You additionally see, in comparatively small numbers, a variety of very brave Russians out on the road protesting,” Mr. Burns mentioned. “One thing like 13 or 14,000 have been arrested since then, which isn’t a small factor in a deeply repressive society like Russia.”

Different governments mentioned one other essential issue is whether or not Mr. Putin’s assist throughout the navy erodes. Earlier than the invasion, Russian officers complained concerning the plan, in line with intercepts obtained by Western intelligence. The discontent with the Kremlin’s planning now continues, the European diplomat mentioned.

The intelligence group will develop its data battle with Russia, working to show Moscow’s battle crimes and atrocities in Ukraine, Ms. Haines mentioned. American spy businesses have been working with different businesses to doc Russian actions in Ukraine, together with battle crimes, and to carry the perpetrators accountable.

“Russian forces are on the very least working with reckless disregard for the security of noncombatants, as Russian models launch artillery and airstrikes into city areas as they’ve accomplished in cities throughout Ukraine,” Ms. Haines mentioned.

Such an data marketing campaign to show Russia’s assaults on civilians and different missteps would construct on the intelligence launched earlier than the invasion, which sought to show Russia’s battle plans, rally allied assist for robust monetary sanctions and deny Moscow the possibility to create a false pretext for an assault.

Gen. Paul M. Nakasone, the director of the Nationwide Safety Company, mentioned that america had carefully tracked three or 4 Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine, and that bolstered Ukrainian defenses had helped blunt wider Russian cyberattacks.

“By way of why they haven’t accomplished extra, I feel that’s clearly among the work that the Ukrainians have accomplished, among the challenges that the Russians have encountered and among the work that others have been capable of do to forestall their actions,” Common Nakasone mentioned.