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Rain Forecast for Southern California Could Bring Mudslide Risk Amid Fires

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Rain Forecast for Southern California Could Bring Mudslide Risk Amid Fires

Rain and cooler temperatures will bring relief to Southern California this weekend, after a prolonged stretch of dry, breezy weather that allowed wildfires to thrive.

The parched landscape between Los Angeles and San Diego hasn’t seen any significant precipitation so far this winter, providing plenty of dry vegetation to fuel the fires. A storm system forecast to move across the region Saturday through Monday will change that.

But there’s also a slight chance that the rain could be on the heavier side — up to half an inch per hour, said Brian Hurley, a National Weather Service meteorologist. That could trigger flash floods and mudslides in places scarred by the Palisades, Eaton and Hughes fires, and in areas burned by smaller blazes over the past two weeks.

Winds remained fairly strong on Thursday, requiring yet another round of red-flag warnings. But the warm, dry pattern and Santa Ana winds will begin to shift on Friday, with a coastal sea breeze pushing moist cool air off the ocean. Light showers could fall as early as Saturday afternoon in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, where fires are still burning.

The greatest chance for rain will come on Sunday, with light showers lingering into Monday. Parts of Los Angeles, including downtown, could receive as much as an inch of rain, said Brian Lewis, a Weather Service forecaster in Oxnard, Calif.

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“We’re not expecting high rainfall rates unless a thunderstorm goes right over that area,” he said, adding that there was a 10 to 20 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms.

There’s also a chance for snow at elevations as low as 3,500 feet. The lower parts of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains could receive up to four inches of snow. Elevations above 5,000 feet could see six to 12 inches, with as much as two feet on the highest peaks.

Though the risk for mudslides is relatively low, officials were deploying crews across the region this week to clear debris and deploy sandbags. At a news conference, Mark Pestrella, Los Angeles County’s public works director, said that people living on or near scorched hillsides should be cautious, especially if their homes had not been inspected after the fires.

“Your best bet is not to be in that home when it rains,” he said.

Mudslides or debris flows — which Jason Kean, a research hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, described as “a flood on steroids” — happen when burned soil becomes compact like concrete, funneling water down slopes that have lost any vegetation to keep it in check. That rushing water can claw up the landscape, unleashing a torrent of trees, rocks, brush and anything else in the way.

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Residents can use burn maps created by the U.S.G.S. to determine if their home is at risk. The Eaton fire near Pasadena could be the most prone to mudslides. Peak rainfall — defined as more than 1.5 inches per hour, falling within a 15-minute interval — would be nearly certain to trigger a debris flow, the maps show.

The San Diego area will see the effects of the storm about 12 hours after Los Angeles, as the chance for rain, and chillier air, moves south on Sunday and Monday.

While the projected precipitation totals for the region went up slightly on Thursday, Mr. Hurley with the Weather Service said California residents didn’t need to worry about a major deluge. “It’s a drier storm, versus what an atmospheric river would give,” he said.

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Video: Brown Student Has Survived Two School Shootings

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Brown Student Has Survived Two School Shootings

Mia Tretta, a Brown student, survived a deadly shooting at her high school in 2019 and another attack on Saturday. As the authorities search for the gunman in the latest attack, she is coping with trauma again.

“The F.B.I. is now offering a reward of $50,000 for information that can lead to the identification, the arrest and the conviction of the individual responsible, who we believe to be armed and dangerous.” “It was terrifying and confusing, and there was so much misinformation, generally speaking, that I think everyone on Brown’s campus didn’t know what to do. This shooting does still impact my daily life, but here at Brown I felt safer than I did other places. And it felt like of course it won’t happen again. You know, it already did. But here we are. And it’s because of years, if not decades, of inaction that this has happened. Unfortunately, gun violence doesn’t — it doesn’t care whether you’ve been shot before.” “It is going to be hard for my city to feel safe going forward. This has shaken us.”

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Mia Tretta, a Brown student, survived a deadly shooting at her high school in 2019 and another attack on Saturday. As the authorities search for the gunman in the latest attack, she is coping with trauma again.

By Jamie Leventhal and Daniel Fetherston

December 15, 2025

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Australia announces strict new gun laws. Here’s how it can act so swiftly

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Australia announces strict new gun laws. Here’s how it can act so swiftly

Mourners gather at the Bondi Pavilion as people pay tribute to the victims of a mass shooting at Bondi Beach.

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At least 15 people were killed at a beach in Sydney, Australia, on Sunday when a father and son opened fire on a crowd celebrating the beginning of Hanukkah. At least 42 people were hospitalized.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described the shooting as a “terrorist incident” targeting Jewish Australians.

Mass shootings are rare in Australia, which has historically strict gun laws. But Sunday’s deadly massacre has prompted Albanese and other Australian officials to revisit those laws and call for further restrictions to prevent more mass shootings in the future.

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Here’s what Australian officials are proposing, and why the country’s politics and culture might allow for it.

Australia already has strict gun laws

The origin of Australia’s notoriously strict gun laws dates back to 1996, when a gunman killed 35 people in an attack in Tasmania.

The April 28 mass shooting came to be known as the Port Arthur massacre, and almost immediately the bloodshed prompted Australia’s political leaders to unite behind an effort to tighten the country’s gun laws. That effort was led by conservative prime minister John Howard.

The result was the National Firearms Agreement, which restricted the sale of semi-automatic rifles and pump-action shotguns and established a national buyback program that resulted in the surrender of more than 650,000 guns, according to the National Museum of Australia. Importantly, it also unified Australia’s previously disjointed firearms laws — which had differed among the states and territories before 1996 — into a national scheme, according to the museum.

Guns handed into Victoria Police in Australia in 2017 as part of a round of weapons amnesty.

Guns handed into Victoria Police in Australia in 2017 as part of a round of weapons amnesty.

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The agreement has been cited internationally, including by the likes of former President Barack Obama, as a model for greater gun control and is credited with dramatically reducing firearms deaths in Australia. The country had zero mass shootings in the more than two decades that followed the agreement, one paper found.

Albanese said in a press conference Monday that the “Howard government’s gun laws have made an enormous difference in Australia and are a proud moment of reform, quite rightly, achieved across the parliament with bipartisan support.”

But Australian firearm ownership has been on the rise again in recent years. The public policy research group The Australia Institute wrote in a January report that there were more than 4 million guns in the country, which is 25% higher than the number of firearms there in 1996. Certain provisions of the National Firearms Agreement have been inconsistently implemented and in some cases “watered down,” the group said.

Graham Park, president of Shooters Union Australia, told supporters in a member update over the summer that Australian firearms owners are “actually winning,” The Guardian reported.

What the proposed gun measures will do

The prime minister and regional Australian leaders agreed in a meeting on Monday to work toward even stronger gun measures in response to Sunday’s shooting. Here’s what they include:

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  • Renegotiate the National Firearms Agreement, which was enacted in 1996 and established Australia’s restrictive gun laws.
  • Speed up the establishment of the National Firearms Register, an idea devised by the National Cabinet in 2023 to create a countrywide database of firearms owners and licenses.
  • Use more “criminal intelligence” in the firearms licensing process. 
  • Limit the number of guns one person can own. 
  • Limit the types of guns and modifications that are legal.
  • Only Australian citizens can hold a firearms license. 
  • Introduce further customs restrictions on guns and related equipment. The Australian government could limit imports of items involving 3D printing or accessories that hold large amounts of ammunition.

Albanese and the regional leaders also reaffirmed their commitment to Australia’s national firearms amnesty program, which lets people turn in unregistered firearms without legal penalties.

While not specifically referenced by the National Cabinet, some of the proposals address details related to Sunday’s shooting.

Australia's prime minister, Anthony Albanese, (left) at Parliament House with AFP Acting Deputy Commissioner for National Security Nigel Ryan speak after the Bondi Beach shooting.

Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, (left) at Parliament House with AFP Acting Deputy Commissioner for National Security Nigel Ryan speak after the Bondi Beach shooting.

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Albanese said Monday the son came to the attention of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation in 2019. ABC Australia reported that he was examined for his close ties to an Islamic State terrorism cell based in Sydney.

Minister for Home Affairs Tony Burke said the son is an Australian-born citizen. Burke added that the father arrived in Australia on a student visa in 1998, which was transferred to a partner visa in 2001. He was most recently on a “resident return” visa.

How Australia’s political system enables swift legal changes

Part of the reason Australia’s government can act so quickly on political matters of national importance is because of something called the National Cabinet.

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The National Cabinet is composed of the prime minister and the premiers and chief ministers of Australia’s six states and two territories.

It was first established in early 2020 as a way for Australia to coordinate its national response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the group has convened to discuss a number of national issues, from a rise in antisemitic hate crimes to proposed age restrictions on social media use.

The National Cabinet doesn’t make laws, but its members attempt to agree on a set of strategies or priorities and work with their respective parliaments to put them into practice.

Australians wanted stronger gun laws even before Sunday

Gun control efforts in Australia inevitably draw comparisons to the U.S., where the Second Amendment dominates any discussion about firearms restrictions.

John Howard, the prime minister during the Port Arthur massacre, said in a 2016 interview with ABC Australia that observing American culture led him to conclude that “the ready availability of guns inevitably led to massacres.” He added: “It just seemed that at some point Australia ought to try and do something so as not to go down the American path.”

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In fact, the National Firearms Agreement avows that gun ownership and use is “a privilege that is conditional on the overriding need to ensure public safety.”

Robust gun laws remain popular among Australians today. A January poll by The Australia Institute found that 64% of Australians think the country’s gun laws should be strengthened, while just 6% believe they should be rolled back. That is in a country where compulsory voting means that politics “generally gravitates to the centre inhibiting the trend towards polarisation and grievance politics so powerfully evident in other parts of the globe,” Monash University politics professor Paul Strangio wrote last year.

Now, there are renewed calls to further harden Australia’s gun laws in the wake of Sunday’s deadly shooting.

“After Port Arthur, Australia made a collective commitment to put community safety first, and that commitment remains as important today as ever,” Walter Mikac said in a statement on Monday.

Mikac is founding patron of the Alannah & Madeline Foundation, which is named for his two daughters who were killed in the 1996 shooting. His wife, Nanette, was also killed.

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“This is a horrific reminder of the need to stay vigilant against violence, and of the importance of ensuring our gun laws continue to protect the safety of all Australians,” Mikac added.

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Video: Rob Reiner and His Wife Are Found Dead in Their Los Angeles Home

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Video: Rob Reiner and His Wife Are Found Dead in Their Los Angeles Home

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Rob Reiner and His Wife Are Found Dead in Their Los Angeles Home

The Los Angeles Police Department was investigating what it described as “an apparent homicide” after the director Rob Reiner and his wife, Michele, were found dead in their home.

“One louder.” “Why don’t you just make 10 louder and make 10 be the top number and make that a little louder?”

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The Los Angeles Police Department was investigating what it described as “an apparent homicide” after the director Rob Reiner and his wife, Michele, were found dead in their home.

By Axel Boada

December 15, 2025

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