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Rain Forecast for Southern California Could Bring Mudslide Risk Amid Fires

Published

3 days ago

January 23, 2025

Rain Forecast for Southern California Could Bring Mudslide Risk Amid Fires

Rain and cooler temperatures will bring relief to Southern California this weekend, after a prolonged stretch of dry, breezy weather that allowed wildfires to thrive.

The parched landscape between Los Angeles and San Diego hasn’t seen any significant precipitation so far this winter, providing plenty of dry vegetation to fuel the fires. A storm system forecast to move across the region Saturday through Monday will change that.

But there’s also a slight chance that the rain could be on the heavier side — up to half an inch per hour, said Brian Hurley, a National Weather Service meteorologist. That could trigger flash floods and mudslides in places scarred by the Palisades, Eaton and Hughes fires, and in areas burned by smaller blazes over the past two weeks.

Winds remained fairly strong on Thursday, requiring yet another round of red-flag warnings. But the warm, dry pattern and Santa Ana winds will begin to shift on Friday, with a coastal sea breeze pushing moist cool air off the ocean. Light showers could fall as early as Saturday afternoon in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, where fires are still burning.

The greatest chance for rain will come on Sunday, with light showers lingering into Monday. Parts of Los Angeles, including downtown, could receive as much as an inch of rain, said Brian Lewis, a Weather Service forecaster in Oxnard, Calif.

“We’re not expecting high rainfall rates unless a thunderstorm goes right over that area,” he said, adding that there was a 10 to 20 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms.

There’s also a chance for snow at elevations as low as 3,500 feet. The lower parts of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains could receive up to four inches of snow. Elevations above 5,000 feet could see six to 12 inches, with as much as two feet on the highest peaks.

Though the risk for mudslides is relatively low, officials were deploying crews across the region this week to clear debris and deploy sandbags. At a news conference, Mark Pestrella, Los Angeles County’s public works director, said that people living on or near scorched hillsides should be cautious, especially if their homes had not been inspected after the fires.

“Your best bet is not to be in that home when it rains,” he said.

Mudslides or debris flows — which Jason Kean, a research hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, described as “a flood on steroids” — happen when burned soil becomes compact like concrete, funneling water down slopes that have lost any vegetation to keep it in check. That rushing water can claw up the landscape, unleashing a torrent of trees, rocks, brush and anything else in the way.

Residents can use burn maps created by the U.S.G.S. to determine if their home is at risk. The Eaton fire near Pasadena could be the most prone to mudslides. Peak rainfall — defined as more than 1.5 inches per hour, falling within a 15-minute interval — would be nearly certain to trigger a debris flow, the maps show.

The San Diego area will see the effects of the storm about 12 hours after Los Angeles, as the chance for rain, and chillier air, moves south on Sunday and Monday.

While the projected precipitation totals for the region went up slightly on Thursday, Mr. Hurley with the Weather Service said California residents didn’t need to worry about a major deluge. “It’s a drier storm, versus what an atmospheric river would give,” he said.

Related Topics:Featured Los Angeles Metropolitan Area (Calif)rain Southern California Wildfires (Jan 2025)

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News

Southern California Rainstorms Raise Risks of Mudslides

Published

5 hours ago

January 26, 2025

Press Room

Southern California Rainstorms Raise Risks of Mudslides

A slow-moving rainstorm system settled over Southern California on Sunday, bringing a reprieve from a lengthy dry spell but also the risk of mudslides in areas scarred by this month’s wildfires.

The showers were expected to continue into Monday afternoon, with light rain across the region and intermittent bursts of heavy rain, forecasters said. The rain could reduce fire risks and help vegetation parched by the driest start to a rainy season on record in Los Angeles.

But the National Weather Service also assessed there was a 10 to 20 percent chance of significant mudslides in several Los Angeles County burn scars, sensitive areas where fires devoured trees and brush.

In the burn scars, the charred soil could act like slick pavement when soaked by rain, creating the conditions for mudslides, said Marc Chenard, a meteorologist with the service.

“You just don’t get any absorption of the water,” Mr. Chenard said. “It just all immediately turns into runoff.”

The highest intensity rain was expected between 4 p.m. on Sunday and 4 p.m. on Monday, according to the service. Los Angeles and Ventura Counties were expected to get up to an inch of total rainfall, and up to three inches was forecast in the mountains around Los Angeles.

The burn scars include areas scorched by the Palisades fire in the Pacific Palisades section of Los Angeles; the Hurst fire near the Sylmar area of the city; the Sunset fire near West Hollywood; the Eaton fire near Pasadena; the Hughes fire near Castaic Lake; and the Franklin fire near Malibu, among others.

Burn scars outside Los Angeles County had a 5 to 10 percent chance of experiencing mudslides, the Weather Service said.

Residents were urged to stock up on supplies and protect property with sandbags. A flood watch was in effect in Los Angeles County until Monday afternoon.

Light rain arrived in Ventura County, north of Los Angeles, on Saturday evening, and picked up across the region on Sunday, the service said.

The system was drifting southeast through Los Angeles County, delivering lightning and hail in some areas, according to the service. Through Sunday afternoon, the highest rates of rainfall — about three-quarters of an inch per hour — were limited to isolated areas.

Rates over half an inch of rain per hour in the burn scars could pose “some significant issues,” Mr. Chenard warned.

The Los Angeles region had endured a brutal drought for months, feeding this month’s devastating wildfires, which burned across thousands of acres and displaced more than 100,000 people.

Before Saturday, there had been no measurable rain in downtown Los Angeles this year, said John Feerick, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. He described the rain as welcome news.

“In general, this is beneficial rain,” Mr. Feerick said. “It should help with the fire situation immensely.”

“Now, with that comes the risk, because there are burn scars,” he added.

News

Mediators aim to shore up fragile ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon

Published

7 hours ago

January 26, 2025

Press Room

Mediators aim to shore up fragile ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon

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International mediators resolved disagreements over fragile ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon late on Sunday, after clashes involving the Israeli military and civilians threatened to undermine both accords.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced Hamas would be releasing three hostages in Gaza on Thursday, including Arbel Yehud, resolving the first major crisis of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, which took effect one week ago.

In return, Israel will allow displaced Palestinians in Gaza to return to their homes in the north of the shattered territory starting on Monday.

The issue of Yehud’s release had strained the US-brokered truce between Israel and Hamas despite the release on Saturday of four female Israeli soldiers from Gaza, and 200 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.

Israeli officials claimed Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that controls Gaza, had violated the agreement when it released the soldiers before Yehud, who is the last civilian female hostage still believed to be alive in Gaza.

Israel retaliated by delaying its withdrawal from the strategic Netzarim corridor, which bisects north and south Gaza, blocking hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from crossing back into the northern part of the territory, as stipulated in the accord.

Over the weekend masses of Palestinians congregated near the corridor, with some families sleeping outside in the winter cold.

The Israeli military said it had fired “warning shots at several gatherings of dozens of suspects who were advancing toward the troops and posed a threat to them”.

Health authorities in Gaza said two people were killed and nine others injured in the clashes on Sunday.

US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators were able to resolve the crisis by effectively securing an additional hostage release this Thursday, including Yehud.

The weekly hostage release that is set to take place next Saturday will move ahead as planned, with three more Israelis expected to be freed, according to Israeli officials.

In return, several hundred Palestinian prisoners will also be released from Israeli jails.

Hamas on Sunday provided Israel with a list of the remaining hostages in captivity and set to be released as part of the initial six week ceasefire, detailing whether they were alive or dead.

The war in Gaza was triggered by Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, during which fighters from the group killed 1,200 people and took 250 hostages.

Israel responded with an offensive in Gaza that has killed more than 47,000 people and fuelled a humanitarian catastrophe in the territory.

US President Donald Trump has urged Egypt and Jordan to take in most of the population of Gaza, saying it was time to “clean out” the territory, but his proposal was rejected by the two Arab countries.

Meanwhile Trump’s administration announced that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, reached last November through American mediation, would be extended until February 18.

The accord halted more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hizbollah, the Lebanese militant group that was attacking the Jewish state in solidarity with Hamas.

Israel made clear last week it would not meet the two-month deadline of Sunday for the withdrawal of its military from southern Lebanon.

Israel has claimed the Lebanese army’s deployments in areas vacated by both its troops and Hizbollah fighters had been too slow to meet the deadline.

With Israeli forces still holding territory inside Lebanon, hundreds of residents came under Israeli fire as they attempted to return on foot to their villages.

According to Lebanon’s health ministry, 22 people were killed and 124 injured on Sunday.

News

President Trump hits Colombia with tariffs for refusing deportation flights

Published

7 hours ago

January 26, 2025

Press Room

President Trump hits Colombia with tariffs for refusing deportation flights

WASHINGTON ― President Donald Trump on Sunday announced stiff new tariffs on imports from Colombia and visa restrictions in retaliation to Colombian President Gustavo Petro denying the entry of U.S. military flights deporting Colombian migrants.

Shortly after Trump’s threat, Petro said he would provide a presidential plane for the “dignified return” of Columbia migrants who face deportations from the U.S.

After learning of two repatriation flights that weren’t allowed to land in Colombia, Trump said he would issue 25% tariffs on all goods coming into the U.S. from Colombia and raise it to 50% tariffs after one week. He further announced the immediate revocation of visas and a travel ban to the U.S. for Colombian government officials and their allies and supporters.

Trump promised financial sanctions on Colombia and said he would heighten customs and border protection inspections of all Colombian nationals and cargo on national security grounds. “These measures are just the beginning,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “We will not allow the Colombian Government to violate its legal obligations with regard to the acceptance and return of the Criminals they forced into the United States!”

Trump’s moves come as he is seeking to aggressively act on his promise of mass deportations of immigrants in the country illegally. During his first week in office, Trump declared a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border and ordered U.S. troops to help carry out deportations, which has resulted in deportees flying back to their home countries in handcuffs.

“The US cannot treat Colombian migrants as criminals,” Petro wrote in a Sunday morning post on X that triggered Trump’s actions. “I deny the entry of American planes carrying Colombian migrants into our territory. The United States must establish a protocol for the dignified treatment of migrants before we receive them.”

The largest U.S. imports from Colombia include crude oil, coffee, and cut flowers, according to the State Department. Trump has discussed plans to issue tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, igniting concerns of trade wars as he begins his second term.

Multiple Latin American countries have pushed back at Trump’s militarized deportations.

Brazil has also condemned the conditions in which deportees have been returned. And last week, Mexico refused to accept a deportation flight for the first time in decades.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement Sunday defending the deportation policy and demanding cooperation from Latin American nations.

“President Trump has made it clear that under his administration, America will no longer be lied to nor taken advantage of. It is the responsibility of each nation to take back their citizens who are illegally present in the United States in a serious and expeditious manner,” Rubio said.

“Colombian President Petro had authorized flights and provided all needed authorizations and then canceled his authorization when the planes were in the air,” Rubio added. “As demonstrated by today’s actions, we are unwavering in our commitment to end illegal immigration and bolster America’s border security.”

Reach Joey Garrison X @joeygarrison.