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Judges Begin Freeing Jan. 6 Defendants After Trump’s Clemency Order

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Judges Begin Freeing Jan. 6 Defendants After Trump’s Clemency Order

“I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the republic for which it stands, one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.” [cheering] They came from all 50 states out of some sense of patriotic duty … “It’s so much more than just rallying for President Trump. It’s really rallying for our way of life. The American dream, against fake news.” … to protest an election they believed had been stolen. “Stop the steal! Stop the steal!” “We’re here, patriots. We’re in Washington D.C. Capitol building dead in front of us.” Their day of action would be Jan. 6 … “The House comes to order.” … when Congress would count electoral ballots and ratify the 2020 election results. For some, it was just a rally for their president. For others, it was a call to arms. “We have the power in numbers. March on Congress directly after Trump’s speech.” In the weeks beforehand, there were over a million mentions on social media of storming the Capitol. Maps were shared of the building’s layout. There was talk of bringing weapons and ammunition, and discussion over which lawmakers should be targeted first. This anger was based on a lie. “This election was a fraud.” A lie that had grown more frenzied after the election. “President Trump won this election.” “They were flipping votes.” “Steal the election in Philadelphia.” “When you win in a landslide and they —” “Steal the election in Atlanta —” “And it’s rigged —” “Steal the election in Milwaukee —” “It’s not acceptable.” “This is outrageous.” A lie spread by the president and his closest allies. “Let’s call out cheating when we find it.” Some of whom stoked calls for violence. “All hell is going to break loose tomorrow.” “Everyone’s going to remember who actually stands in the breach and fights tomorrow. And who goes running off like a chicken.” “We bleed freedom.” “This will be their Waterloo.” “And we will sacrifice for freedom.” “This will be their destruction.” “U.S.A.! U.S.A.!” What happened next was chaos. “They broke the glass?” Insurrection. “Take it now!” “Treason! Treason!” Death. Then, there began a campaign to whitewash history, starting at the top. “It was a zero threat. Right from the start, it was zero threat.” And spreading throughout the Republican Party. “Even calling it an insurrection, It wasn’t. By and large, it was peaceful protest.” One lawmaker, who helped barricade the House doors, now suggests there was barely any threat. “If you didn’t know the TV footage was a video from January the 6th, you would actually think it was a normal tourist visit.” A tourist visit this was not. And the proof is in the footage. As part of a six-month investigation, The New York Times has collected and forensically analyzed thousands of videos, most filmed by the rioters themselves. We obtained internal police radio traffic … … and went to court to unseal police body-cam footage. Our reconstruction shows the Capitol riot for what it was, a violent assault encouraged by the president on a seat of democracy that he vowed to protect. We’ll chart how police leaders failed to heed warnings of an impending attack, putting rank-and-file officers in danger. We’ll track key instigators in the mob taking advantage of weaknesses in the Capitol’s defenses to ignite a wave of violence that engulfed the building. We’ll show, for the first time, the many simultaneous points of attack, and the eight breaches of what appeared to be an impenetrable institution of government. We’ll show how the delay to secure Congress likely cost a rioter her life. And how for some, storming the Capitol was part of the plan, all along. “In fact, tomorrow, I don’t even like to say it because I’ll be arrested.” “Well, let’s not say it. We need to go — I’ll say it.” “All right.” “We need to go in to the Capitol.” “Let’s go!” It’s the morning of Jan. 6, and thousands are filling the National Mall in Washington. Trump will speak here at the Ellipse, a large park near the White House and a half-hour walk to the U.S. Capitol where the election will be certified. Who is actually in this crowd? Most are ordinary citizens who believe Trump’s lie that the election was stolen. “It’s going to be a great day. It’s going to be wild, as Trump says.” But we also see more extreme groups who’ve gained a following during Trump’s presidency. There are followers of the QAnon conspiracy … “Drinking their blood, eating our babies.” … who believe that Trump is facing down a cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles. Q posts often invoked notions of patriotism and predict a coming storm. And ahead of Jan. 6, some supporters call for violence. The Oath Keepers, a far-right paramilitary group, are also here. “We have men already stationed outside D.C. —” Their leader has said the group is ready to follow Trump’s orders and take members of what they call the “Deep State” into custody. They’re organized, staging their military-style equipment neatly on the ground. And later, they put on body armor, talk on radios, and chat with their supporters on a walkie-talkie app called Zello. “We have a good group. We got about 30, 40, of us who are sticking together and sticking to the plan. Y’all, we’re one block away from the Capitol, now. I’m probably going to go silent when I get there because I’m going to be a little busy.” Another group is the Proud Boys. They’re far-right nationalists who flashed white power signs throughout the day. “Check out all this testosterone.” They became a household name when Trump invoked them during a presidential debate. “Proud Boys, stand back and stand by.” And that’s what they did. They have a history of street violence and will be key instigators of the riot. We’ll return to them soon. Although the rally is billed as a political protest, some make calls to storm the Capitol even before Trump speaks. And later, when Trump does take the stage … “We’re going to walk down to the Capitol.” … some hear his words as a call to action. “I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building.” Two hours before this, the Proud Boys were already heading for the Capitol. They’re clearly spoiling for a fight with far-left agitators like antifa, who they believe are in D.C. But there are moments that suggest another motive. “Come on, tighten up.” “Come on, boys. They’re organized, too. Many are marked with orange tape or hats. They’re wearing body armor, carrying baseball bats and using radios. “That’s affirmative. Jesse, this is Tucker” Leading them is Ethan Nordean, who’s been entrusted with so-called war powers. He’s joined by other well-known Proud Boys like Joe Biggs, an organizer from Florida, Dominic Pezzola, a former Marine, and Billy Chrestman. They will be among the first rioters inside the Capitol building. “Proud Boys.” As Trump is speaking, some of his other supporters also head to the Capitol. Chanting: “Whose streets? Our streets! Whose streets? Our streets!” And the tone is becoming menacing. “And we’re going to storm the [expletive] Capitol. [expletive] you, [expletive].” “U.S.A.! U.S.A.!” Just ahead, officers guarding the building are understaffed and ill-equipped for what’s coming their way. “You going to stop us?” The building is more than two football fields in length. And barricades erected on the east side are defended by just a few dozen officers. The west side, facing Trump’s rally, is even lighter. The fencing has been extended and on the northwest approach, only five officers stand guard. Around five also defend the southwest approach, a few more dot the lawn and about a dozen officers are behind them. Plans to storm the Capitol were made in plain sight, but the F.B.I. and Department of Homeland Security did not deem those threats as credible. “We will take that building!” “U.S.A.! U.S.A.!” Capitol Police leaders and Washington’s mayor were warned at least three times of violent threats, but also didn’t take them seriously or circulate that information. And they declined offers of security personnel from federal and other agencies. They could have enlisted several hundred more Capitol police for duty on Jan. 6, but did not. And none of the officers on the barricades have protective gear or crowd-control equipment. As a result, the Capitol is sparsely defended. “Whose House? Our House! Whose House? Our House!” It’s 12:50 p.m. and a large group of Proud Boys is with other protesters right by the Capitol Police line. Joe Biggs is rallying them. When he’s approached by Ryan Samsel, a Trump supporter from Pennsylvania. They chat, we don’t know about what. But a minute later, Samsel is the first to approach the police line. And it’s now that the protest turns violent. “U.S.A.!” Without hesitation, the crowd overpowers the police. Nearby, a second group breaks through on another approach. Others jump fences. And now hundreds of rioters rush forward on several fronts. “D.C. is a [expletive] war zone.” Police retreat to the Capitol building where it’s becoming more threatening. “This is what we came for! Yeah!” A mob mentality begins to take hold. Police are so outnumbered, they’re forced to retreat again to more tightly defend access points to the Capitol. It’s now five minutes into the siege that the Capitol Police chief calls for backup from local law enforcement, known as the Metropolitan Police, and asks other Capitol leaders to mobilize the National Guard. “You took an oath! Does that not mean a damn thing to you, does it?” Metro Police will arrive within 15 minutes. But for reasons we’ll explain later, the National Guard won’t arrive for over four hours. “Back up! Back up!” Meanwhile, more Capitol Police come to reinforce the line. It’s the first time we see officers in riot gear. But most are missing their shields because they had not prepared to unlock the storage area where that equipment is kept. Proud Boys like Billy Chrestman keep rallying the mob. And again, they start brawling with the police. Minutes later, reinforcements from the Metro Police arrive. A high-ranking Metro officer immediately calls for more backup. They struggle to subdue rioters who respond with their own chemical spray. And within 30 minutes, the police already have casualties. [shouting] This first wave of rioters battling police has paved the way across Capitol grounds for others to follow. And after Trump finishes speaking, thousands more now fill the space. Meanwhile, inside the Capitol, Nancy Pelosi and Mike Pence have begun certifying the 2020 presidential election results. Certification will happen on both sides of the building, in the House and the Senate. And this is what the rioters want to stop. An hour into the assault, the mob is battling a police line here, along the west face of the Capitol. But that violence is now going to spread to multiple points of attack, as west side rioters stream around the Capitol and incite the crowd on the east. Here’s what that crowd looks like on the east. “Stop the steal! Stop the steal! Stop the steal!” They’re aware of the siege happening on the west side, and some are emboldened by it. But up until now, they’ve been kept behind the barricades. “U.S.A.! U.S.A.!” Then this group from the west storms around to the building and pushes right through the barriers. The police here barely put up a fight. And it’s now that protesters, all along the east barricades, surge forward. [cheering] Officers are overwhelmed from several directions, and retreat to guard Capitol entrances. But these rioters believe they’ve been deputized by their president to stop a crime. And now, they start trying to get into the building itself. [shouting] [glass breaking] [pounding on door] The Capitol is now surrounded. Rioters haven’t made it inside yet, but around the time that the mob on the east pushed forward, rioters on the west were making a pivotal move. This scaffolding was erected for the upcoming inauguration of Joe Biden. It covers a staircase that gives direct access to an upper level, and dozens of doors and windows. Three police lines guard that route. But at ground level, officers are so overwhelmed that just a few cover this crucial access point. Several Proud Boys see the weakness. Proud Boys start fighting the police, and with others in the mob, they push through the line. Over several minutes, it’s a brutal fight on these steps. At one point, the rioters are held back. [groaning] But they make a final push up the flight of stairs. [cheering] At the top, they scuffle again with a small group of officers … … who give in after barely a minute. The mob now has direct access to Capitol entrances. “I can’t believe this is reality. We accomplished this [expletive].” And hundreds more protesters below, surge forward. “Let’s go! The siege is ours.” It’s utter mayhem, and it’s about to get worse. This scene is being filmed from countless angles allowing us to piece together, moment by moment, what comes next. Proud Boy Dominic Pezzola uses a police shield he stole to bash in a window. And at 2:13 p.m., the Capitol is breached. Michael Sparks, a Trump supporter from Kentucky, is the first person inside. A police officer seems unsure of what to do and backs off. Sparks is followed by Proud Boys and other far-right extremists, one carrying a Confederate flag, another armed with a baseball bat. When rioters break open the locked doors, hundreds more rush in. [shouting] [glass breaking] This is a critical moment. Officers must now defend the outside and inside of the building, stretching them even further. Simultaneous events now happen that are critical to lawmakers’ safety. Rioters head straight for the Senate, and will be at its doors in two minutes. Above them, the Senate is called into recess. “We’ll pause.” Members will evacuate down these stairs. In this hallway, directly overhead the rioters, Officer Eugene Goodman is sprinting to overtake them. He passes Mitt Romney, who he warns to turn around. Reinforcements are following behind. Goodman overtakes the mob, goes downstairs and intercepts them. He holds them off while backup arrives upstairs. Behind these rioters, and just feet away, is an escape route where the lawmakers and Senate staff are now fleeing. Just one officer stands guard. Keeping his composure, Goodman draws the mob away from that escape route to where reinforcements are waiting. Goodman: “Second floor!” He glances toward the Senate, and realizes the door is unguarded. Goodman shoves the protester again, lures the mob away, and brings them into that line of fellow officers. Again, the rioters here are convinced it’s their duty to defend democracy. “We’re not [expletive] around! Because we are mad!” [shouting] The officers hold them off here, for now. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Capitol, a few political leaders are evacuated from the House of Representatives. But despite a lockdown alert, proceedings here will resume. “The House will be in order.” We’ll go there soon. First, we’ll go to the Crypt in the center of the Capitol below the Rotunda. The mob is already at its entrance. If they get through here, they will more easily fan out across the building. Rioters jostle with police here for six minutes, and then flood through. It’s now 2:24 p.m., some 90 minutes after the siege began, and the mob is about to overrun the building. “Stop the steal! Stop the steal!” As this is happening, and as thousands more swell outside, Trump composes a tweet. Not to calm his supporters, but to blame his vice president. He writes: At this very time, Pence and his family are being taken to safety, along with an aide who’s carrying the country’s nuclear launch equipment. “O say does that star-spangled banner yet wave?” At 2:25 p.m., there’s another major breach on the opposite side of the building, the east side. Rioters have been battling a handful of officers at these doors for almost half an hour. The tide turns when rioters who came through the Crypt, reach these doors and pull them open. Then an active-duty Marine Corps officer, Christopher Warnagiris, keeps that door open for the mob to flood in. Just as elsewhere, this crowd is a mix of die-hard Trump supporters, but also more organized groups like the Oath Keepers, who move in formation here toward that east side entrance. The Oath Keepers and their supporters continue to update each other on the Zello chat app. The group enters the Capitol together. Proud Boys are near them, including Joe Biggs, the organizer we saw earlier. He’s entering the building for a second time. The Oath Keepers fill the Rotunda along with hundreds of other rioters. “Took over the Capitol. Overran the Capitol.” “We’re in the [expletive] Capitol, bro.” Now the police inside the building are completely outnumbered and call for backup. “It’s our House!” “Whose House?” “Our House!” Throughout the Capitol, staffers have barricaded doors to keep the mob out. In Nancy Pelosi’s chambers, staffers rush inside a conference room and lock two doors behind them. Just 12 minutes later, rioters outside head straight for her offices. “Nancy! Nancy!” And pile in. Huddled together under a table, Pelosi’s staff record what’s happening. One rioter tries to break into that same room. Inside, staffers are silent as they record him pounding. [loud banging] He gets through the first door, but the second door keeps him out. It’s a scene that, again, shows just how compromised the U.S. government has become. “I think I like my new dining room.” By 2:30 p.m., the Senate evacuation is well underway. But even though a lockdown was called over 15 minutes ago, the House is still in session. “Do not accept Arizona’s electors as certified.” Representative Jim McGovern is chairing. He told us he wanted to finish hearing objections to the election results by Paul Gosar. House staff and security gave McGovern the all-clear to continue. It’s a delay that likely cost someone their life. Suddenly, staff are now pointing at the chamber’s doors. Just outside, a mob of 100 or more is baying to get into them. These rioters pay little heed to the thin line of police. “They’re going. Yeah, I would just stop — bro.” And in moments, are pushing against the doors into the House. “Stop the steal!” On the other side, Capitol Police erect a barricade and draw their guns. “You’re a traitor.” On the floor, lawmakers are evacuated to the rear of the chamber, where in a few minutes a rioter will be shot and killed. Part of the mob outside now peels off in that direction to find a different way in. Ashli Babbitt, an Air Force veteran and QAnon supporter, is among the first to arrive at the rear of the House. “Open the door.” They see the lawmakers escaping. That lobby might have been clear had the House been evacuated sooner. But the rioters now become incensed. Zachary Alam, a Trump supporter from Pennsylvania, punches in the glass panels with his bare fists. [pounding on door] “Open the door.” Police are stretched extremely thin. Just three officers and a security staffer stand guard. None are wearing riot gear, and they keep their weapons holstered. “It’s going to get worse.” “Open the door.” When a team of heavily armed police now arrives, the three officers step aside. “Go! Let’s go! Get this.” This creates a crucial gap that allows rioters to smash in the glass. A warning — what happens next is graphic. It’s 2:44 p.m., and behind the door, a police officer draws his handgun. Babbitt vaults into the window and the officer shoots her once. [gunshot] “Oh! Oh!” It’s a fatal wound through the upper chest. Inside the chamber, the floor is clear, but lawmakers in the balcony are sheltering in place. [gunshot] “The [expletive]?” “Take your pins off.” “Pins off.” They now remove the breast pins that identify them as members of Congress. A group of rioters who almost made it to the balcony are held at gunpoint as it’s finally evacuated. Now Trump supporters have achieved their goal, stopping the election certification. And while the House is evacuated, at the other side of the building, the Senate is occupied. “Treason! Treason! Treason!” On the Senate floor, they leaf through lawmakers’ files. “There’s got to be something in here we can [expletive] use against these scumbags.” Mug for photos. “Jesus Christ —” Pray. “We invoke Your name. Amen!” “Amen!” And leave a message for Mike Pence. “It’s only a matter of time. Justice is coming.” As rioters inside have been rampaging throughout the Capitol, the crowd outside has grown. And that first battle has continued raging. [horn blowing] For almost two hours, officers face off with rioters who say they support the police … … but assault them, anyway. We’re going to show what happened here because it demonstrates, yet again, how failures by Capitol Police leaders to prepare put the safety of these officers at risk. “Leave him alone! Leave him alone!” Capitol Police had been ordered to withhold some of their stronger weapons. But as soon as Robert Glover, a Metro Police inspector arrives, he calls for his munitions team to help. When the building is breached, Glover knows he needs to retreat and seeks advice from Capitol leaders. [shouting] When Capitol don’t respond, he asks four times. “Push! Push! Push! Push!” Then, the police lose the line. “We the people, we are the storm!” Rioters knock an officer over, throw a fire extinguisher. “U.S.A.!” Glover issues a 10-33, the call of last resort. Crazed rioters hound the police even as they retreat to the upper level. Police now begin to guard this doorway, an iconic centerpiece of presidential inaugurations. But for another two hours, the same pattern will repeat. Rioters fill the terrace. Instigators trigger a frenzy. And tragically, someone will die. A brutal fight erupts in the doorway. The mob heaves in a coordinated scrum. [screaming] “Help!” When police finally push them out, they face even worse violence. They are tased, gassed and robbed of their equipment. They’re beaten with a crutch, a hockey stick and even an American flag. At least four officers are pulled into the crowd. One dragged by his own helmet, face down. And again, the frenzy turns fatal. Rosanne Boyland, a Trump supporter who has been swept up by QAnon conspiracies, is moving toward the door. But amid the scrum, she collapses and is lying unconscious beneath the mob. [crowd chants] “I can’t breathe! I can’t breathe!” As the crowd sarcastically chants a Black Lives Matter slogan, Boyland’s friend, Justin Winchell, tries to pull her to safety. He screams for help. But instead, fellow rioters trample over Boyland and charge at the police again. Boyland will be pronounced dead at a local hospital in the evening. By the end of the day, rioters have breached and entered the building in at least eight locations. There’s the first breach, which we’ve seen, when rioters smashed through two windows and a door. Beside that, a rioter with a crowbar smashes in a second door, and then opens it to hundreds of people. Others smash a window next to the Inauguration door and climb inside. “Patriots, we need people to stand up for our country and our Constitution.” At this entrance, police stand aside and allow rioters to stream in, unchallenged. On the north side of the building, police in riot gear yield and let the crowd in. Another three breaches are on the east side, two by the central doors into the Rotunda, and this southeast door leading to the House chamber. It’s the arrival of more Metropolitan Police and other agencies that finally turns the tide. When those officers enter the Rotunda, they clear it in just 20 minutes. As the mob is pushed back through the east doors, their rage turns to Mike Pence, who Trump attacked earlier. Metro officers also stop other rioters from entering on the west side, where the mob first broke in. But here, too, we see a crowd empowered by the belief that they’re carrying out some patriotic duty. Over the course of the day, 150 police officers are injured. After 4 p.m., Metro and Capitol Police regain control of the upper levels. The final parts of the interior are cleared by other law enforcement, including federal agencies. Tear gas and flash bangs disperse the crowd on the Inauguration terrace. The Virginia State Police and Arlington County Police help to reclaim that area. Then rioters are swiftly pushed off Capitol grounds by a reinforced police line. Only now, more than three hours after Capitol police first called them, do National Guard soldiers arrive. “You can diffuse and turn down, right now.” Troops were staging just 20 minutes away. But a recent procedural change meant the highest level of the Pentagon had to approve deployment. And Pentagon officials delayed the decision, partially in fear of bad optics, even as the Capitol was being overrun. As calm returns, the president tweets again. He repeats that the election had been stripped away, calls his supporters great patriots, and says: The aftermath of Jan. 6 has been as divisive as the lie that launched it. Even as one arm of government has indicted hundreds of rioters, Republican lawmakers continue efforts to normalize what happened with a mix of denials and conspiracy theories. “Some of the people who breached the Capitol today were not Trump supporters.” “I knew those are people that love this country, that truly respect law enforcement, would never do anything to break a law. And so I wasn’t concerned.” They include Paul Gosar, who’d been at the Trump rally. “The D.O.J. is harassing peaceful patriots across the country.” And Andrew Clyde, who we saw earlier, standing just a few feet from rioters. “There was no insurrection. And to call it an insurrection, in my opinion, is a bald-faced lie.” Republican leaders have blocked an independent investigation that could have brought new details to light. “I’ve made the decision to oppose the House Democrats’ slanted and unbalanced proposal for another commission to study the events of January the 6th.” And in May, a top Republican was ousted from the party’s leadership after blaming Trump for inspiring the riot. “And I think that the party is in a place that we’ve got to bring it back from.” None of what happened on Jan. 6 would have been possible without a huge mass of ordinary people who were proud of what they achieved. “We made it!” “Yeah! We stopped the vote!” Millions around the country still believe the violence was not only justified, but necessary. And the forces that brought them there have not gone away. “Yeah, the patriots are coming back, y’all. Hopefully, y’all will be on our side when that happens.”

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They quit their day jobs to bet on current events. A look inside the prediction market mania

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They quit their day jobs to bet on current events. A look inside the prediction market mania

Logan Sudeith, 25, estimates he clocks about 100 hours a week on prediction markets.

Evan Frost for NPR


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Evan Frost for NPR

Ask Logan Sudeith how many bets he places in a week and he’ll laugh. It’s a comical line of questioning for the 25-year-old former financial risk analyst, who estimates he clocks about 100 hours a week on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket. After a while, understandably, some of the bets blur together. What are his net profits, though? That’s a number he’s got at the ready.

“Last month, I made $100,000,” said Sudeith, who does most of his trading from his laptop while bed-lounging in his Atlanta apartment. He’s executing so many orders on the sites, he says, that he has no time to cook. So he DoorDashes every meal.

“My last salary was $75,000 a year, so I left my job to trade full time,” he said

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Some of his biggest hauls in recent months include lucrative stakes on Time Magazine’s person of the year ($40,236), the most-searched person on Google last year ($11,083) and a wager on the New York City mayoral race ($7,448). And of course, a couple thousand here, a couple thousand there on questions like, how many times will a sports announcer say “air ball”? And will President Trump use the phrase “drill baby drill” at an upcoming press conference? (Traders had $500,000 on the line on this market.)

“I’m not a fan of Trump, though I do spend most of my day listening to him and tracking what he is doing,” said Sudeith, noting that whatever candidate in the next presidential race is the most friendly to prediction markets has his vote. “I could be a single-issue voter. If they’re super-super heavy anti-prediction markets, it would be hard for me to vote for them.”

Sudeith says he made

Sudeith says he made $100,000 last month on prediction market apps.

Evan Frost for NPR


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Evan Frost for NPR

The boom of online prediction markets is being driven by the Sudeiths of the world. He’s one of millions of traders logging on every day to services like Kalshi and Polymarket to place high-dollar and incredibly risky bets on the outcome of the world in real time, whether it’s an award host’s turn of phrase to the number of migrants the U.S. will deport this year.

Much like previous financial crazes around meme stocks and NFTs, true believers view prediction markets through a stick-it-to-the-man prism. It’s a movement against the elite establishment, they say, whether it’s the mainstream media, pollsters or government agencies. This growing group of renegade traders maintain that core truths emerge only after thousands of people express their opinions with their pocketbooks.

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“Markets are the most efficient way to get to real information,” Sudeith said. “If you’re watching on election night, I think you’ll know who the winners are before the news can report it.”

While the industry may position itself an alternative to the mainstream, the mainstream is embracing it.

CNN and CNBC have struck deals to incorporate Kalshi prediction markets into coverage. The Wall Street Journal‘s owner, Dow Jones, is partnering with Polymarket, as did the Golden Globe awards this year, with announcers updating viewers on Polymarket odds before every commercial break.

Founders of the prediction markets apps say they enable people to turn their opinion into a financial hedge against things like inflation or a government shutdown, yet skeptics say that is twisty and self-serving logic.

“They are gambling sites no different than FanDuel or DraftKings, a corner bookie, or a casino in Las Vegas,” said Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of Better Markets, a nonprofit that pushes for Wall Street reform.

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Kalshi says ‘there’s no house,’ not all agree

Traditional gambling often means wagering against “the house,” where the casino acts like the banker, extracting fees and maintaining a competitive edge.

Prediction markets like Kalshi say they’re different.

Advertisements by the company Kalshi predict a victory for Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral election before the polls closed on Nov. 4, 2025.

Advertisements by the company Kalshi predict a victory for Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral election before the polls closed on Nov. 4, 2025.

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Here’s how they work: A staff member creates “a market,” often after one has been suggested by a user, like what will President Trump say at his next Oval Office briefing?

Then anyone can propose a “strike,” the lingo for a term that’s being bet on, whether, for instance, Trump will say “Greenland,” or “Minnesota,” or some other word or phrase.

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Kalshi staff pick what terms will be bet on for both sides of that “yes” and “no” wager.

In order to work, however, there needs to be money on both the “yes” and the “no” side of the market, so Kalshi relies on institutional partners, like the hedge fund Susquehanna International, or everyday users with large enough portfolios to front the cash. This is called being a “market maker.” Kalshi provides financial perks and data access to traders who do this.

But because traders are competing with other traders, Kalshi argues there is no house involved in these transactions.

Several federal lawsuits against Kalshi have challenged this notion, claiming that the Wall Street firms that Kalshi taps are indistinguishable from a traditional “house.”

One suit filed this month in the Northern District of Illinois highlights that the company itself has a separate entity, Kalshi Trading, that supplies cash on the opposite side of trades.

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“Thus, Kalshi users are betting against the house exactly the same way it would in a brick-and-mortar casino,” wrote lawyer Russell Busch in the complaint.

Kalshi denies this. Company spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana told NPR that market makers merely price bids and asks and do not have a competitive advantage.

“Market making is completely different from being a house, because a house has monopoly pricing power, whereas market makers compete with thousands of other market makers to take bids,” she said.

The Trump family invests in prediction markets. The administration is taking a friendly policy stance

While the Biden administration sought to rein in this industry, Trump’s regulators are breaking down barriers to allow it to flourish.

More than $2 billion is now traded every week on Kalshi, an amount the company says is 1,000% higher compared to the Biden years.

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Polymaket, which was forced in 2022 to shut down in the U.S. for operating as an unlicensed betting site, recently won the Trump administration’s blessing to re-launch in the U.S.

The Trump family is also getting in on the action. The president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is on the board of Polymarket, and his venture capital firm invests in the company. He is also a “strategic adviser” to Kalshi. Truth Social, the president’s social media site, is planning to launch its own prediction market called Truth Predict.

Donald Trump Jr. speaks during The Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas on May 27, 2025.

Donald Trump Jr. speaks during The Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas on May 27, 2025.

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The explosive growth and permissive regulatory environment has ignited a debate about the underbelly of an industry that essentially turns many features of modern life into potential monetary wins and losses. Fears persist that when elections, politics and foreign invasions become a gamble that insiders could abuse their access for profit and market odds could influence what actually happens.

Then there’s the most prosaic, but perhaps more immediate worry: That the prediction markets gamify trading with slickly designed apps, one-click checking account deposits and constant push alerts, catering to compulsive online bettors. They’re not unlike other app-based trading platforms, but now almost anything is a potential betting opportunity, which economists and other financial experts say can enable a new generation of gambling addicts.

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While individual bets on Kalshi are not public, the app has a leaderboard showcasing top profit winners.

That offers hope to some traders who turn to Discord and Reddit to discuss how losses have set them back.

“I’m down 2000 this week when I was up 1200 last week,” wrote a Kalshi trader who goes by Educational_Pain_407 on Reddit. “Lost it all and keep trying to claw it back. So I don’t know what to tell you but right now I don’t have enough to pay my bills in my bank account so I can’t bet even if I wanted to.”

There are three federal lawsuits against Kalshi seeking class action status alleging the apps have sucked young traders into gambling addiction.

Officials at Kalshi have said if traders “lose their shirt that’s on them,” and even the Reddit user behind on his bills concedes it’s a matter of personal responsibility: “Live and learn and pay for your mistakes. The consequences of being an adult,” he wrote recently.

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While online sportsbooks and gambling are nothing new, the rapid speed, volume of cash and ease at which transactions flow across prediction market apps set them apart from other forms of betting, according to legal and financial experts.

“Like sports betting, these platforms can be addictive. It is the adrenaline rush that the target demographic is chasing,” said Melinda Roth, a visiting professor at Washington and Lee University’s School of Law who studies prediction markets. “I do believe this is a looming public health crisis.”

Decoding the lingo: ‘Mogged,’ ‘Fudded,’ ‘PMT’

Evan Semet, 26, is another diehard prediction markets trader who left his salaried position in finance as a quantitative researcher after he started raking in six figures a month on Kalshi.”I don’t feel the need for another job at the moment,” he said.

His first golden ticket came via bets on the number of Transportation Security Agency screenings that happen across a certain period on Polymarket.

Evan Semet quit his job in finance to do prediction market trading full time.

Evan Semet quit his job in finance to do prediction market trading full time.

Meredith Nierman/NPR

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Semet said he set up a dedicated server through Amazon Web Services to host statistical models that he runs to help him decide where to place bets.

“It was pretty modelable,” he said, noting that he leans on the finance savvy he gleaned at a trading firm to make money on predictions. “Most day traders draw some shapes on a chart and think it has some statistical significance but it’s really just astrology,” he said. “They’re old-school gamblers going off of intuition. I try to be driven by statistics.”

To stay tapped in, he’s often toggling between multiple live trades on one screen and following a discussion among other traders on the social network Discord.

Keeping up on what’s happening there requires understanding a hyper-specific type of lingo that’s a blend of Generation Alpha and Gen Z slang, repurposed finance terminology and a grab-bag of other cultural influences from gaming to crypto to the gutter humor of fringe sites like 4chan.

If you’ve been out-maneuvered by another trader, you’ve been “mogged.”

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If a market has “fudded,” people are selling their positions out of fear, uncertainty and doubt. A “rulescuck” is someone who is a stickler for the rules of a betting market and will try to win on a technicality.

A “bondsharp” is a well-known community member who frequently puts up money on the other side of a bet.

These are just a handful of the terms required to stay apace of the chats on Discord, where PMTs are often discussing their full port (prediction market trader, and full portfolio, of course).

“It is a good amount of terminology. It’s borrowing lingo and terms from stuff I’ve heard at real trading firms mixed with online pop culture,” Semet said.

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Evan Semet poses for a photo in Boston on Jan. 12, 2026. Semet quit his job in finance to do prediction market trading full time.

“Sometimes I prefer to not look at all and see how I did later,” Semet said.

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Prediction market trading can be a compulsive sport for many of them, who admit they can be dopamine junkies. Others prefer to avoid the pressure-cooker feeling of watching a bet win or lose live.

“It’s an antsy, gambling-like feeling watching it all happen live,” Semet said. “It’s intense, almost feels like the fog of war, trying to decide what to do,” he said. “Sometimes I prefer to not look at all and see how I did later.”

How predictions markets got into politics

Kalshi’s big day came, as it were, on Election Day in November 2020.

That’s when they got word that Trump’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates futures contracts, greenlit it as a “designated contract market,” a blessing that essentially gave the platform a license to operate as a financial exchange.

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It was a long time coming.

For years before that, Kalshi’s co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, former Wall Street traders who met at MIT, had been battling a skeptical CFTC, which had long rejected similar applications over concerns that an events contract platform would operate a type of gambling outside the purview of state gambling commissions. Regulators also feared the bets invited insiders to rig the outcomes of events from sports to elections.

Tarek Mansour, (left) and Luana Lopes Lara are co-founders of Kalshi.

Tarek Mansour, (left) and Luana Lopes Lara are co-founders of Kalshi.

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As Kalshi hired lawyers and lobbyists leading up to their CFTC approval, another prediction market, where most are betting with cryptocurrencies, Polymarket, was exploding in growth. It, however, had not bothered to even try to receive federal buy-in. The Biden administration shut down the exchange for operating without a license. Now, Polymarket has the CFTC on its side, and is staging a U.S. comeback.

Two developments helped Polymarket’s return: the company acquired a little-known derivatives exchange QCX, which had already obtained CFTC approval. And the Trump administration’s CTFC and Justice Department abandoned investigations into Polymarket.

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States, however, are on the attack. Massachusetts has sued to push Kalshi out of the state. Eight other states, including New York, New Jersey and Maryland, have sent the company cease and desist letters alleging that it is operating as an illegal and unlicensed sports gambling site. The motivation is clear: Gambling brings in serious tax revenue for states, while prediction markets bring in none.

For both Kalshi and Polymarket, one of the most controversial areas of prediction market trading is elections, an issue Biden-era regulators took Kalshi to court over.

Under the 1936 Commodity Exchange Act, which was updated in 2008 after the financial crisis, future event contracts cannot involve terrorism, assassinations or “games,” but political betting is not explicitly banned.

The Polymarket prediction market website is seen on a computer screen on Sunday. The screen says "Maduro out by?" with Dec. 31, 2025 at over $34 million and Jan. 31, 2026 over $10 million.

The Polymarket prediction market website is seen on a computer screen.

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Biden administration lawyers argued that placing wagers on races amounted to a game, a word that is not defined at all in the law. Election bets, the regulators contended, could turbocharge the spread of political misinformation and create financial incentives for voters to cast a ballot even when it’s contrary to a voter’s political views.

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It also puts the CFTC in the awkward position of having to investigate news, whether real or fabricated, that moves a prediction market. Former CFTC officials told NPR that the agency has never been equipped to be “an election cop.”

The federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. rejected that framing and handed Kalshi a major victory. The court also pointed out that the harm these markets would cause the government was not “concrete” enough.

The Trump administration dropped the appeal, unleashing what is expected to be an unprecedented torrent of prediction market cash into this year’s midterm elections, which is raising alarms among those pushing for stricter regulations on this industry.

“AI, deepfakes, and other nefarious activities to attack candidates could easily impact the betting activity and odds, as well as the actual outcome of elections,” said Kelleher of Better Markets. “They don’t really care who wins or loses. They only care about the volume of bets and driving that volume as high as possible.”

Regulators appear unprepared. The CFTC usually has five commissioners but currently only has one. Meanwhile, Kalshi’s board includes former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz, who was among the officials who gave the platform its federal approval in 2020.

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Former CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson, who left the agency in 2025, said that lack of commissioners comes on top of high levels of turnover among the most senior staff lawyers.

“We’re essentially asking the CFTC to get involved in engaging and policing an element of our democratic process that we really haven’t thought carefully enough about,” Johnson said.

Insider trading scrutiny grows

Before a U.S. operation ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, one trader on Polymarket banked a nearly half-million-dollar profit on a bet Maduro would not remain president for long.

While the trader’s identity remains a mystery, speculation continues to rattle around the internet about whether the person had insider information. The episode has renewed scrutiny on how the companies ensure bets aren’t rigged.

On Discord, when traders see a large bet placed that immediately stands out as an outlier, cries of “the market is insidered” are common. Proving it is another matter.

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As is often the case on the platforms, open-shut evidence of insider trading is elusive. Kalshi requires a government-issued ID to sign up in order to trace any possible market manipulation back to a real person. Polymarket does not, but it has yet to publicly re-launch its U.S. app. Internal and third-party surveillance tools, the companies say, are on the lookout for unusual activity.

Congress has begun to take notice. Following the Maduro trade, Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-NY, and 30 other Democrats, sponsored legislation banning federal officials from using prediction markets to trade on policies or political outcomes using non-public information.

Being up against an insider is always a risk, said full-time prediction markets trader Semet.

“There’s always going to be someone who has more information than you, unless you’re the insider,” he said. “There are certain accounts that miraculously have every single Google and OpenAI release date nailed perfectly, and it’s like, all right, just don’t fade those people,” he said using the slang word for voting against another trader.

“Sometimes I prefer to not look at all and see how I did later,” Semet said.

Being up against an insider is always a risk, said full-time prediction markets trader Semet.

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When asked if he thinks Kalshi and Polymarket are doing enough to combat insider trading, he gave a blunt assessment: “F*** no,” Semet said. “I really don’t think they care.”

“Tailing,” or making a bet joining in on a suspiciously large bet is common on the platforms. Bloomberg on Monday reported on a new tool that allows traders to get alerts when anomalous transactions occur so they can potentially cash in on what could be a winning wager.

From the vantage point of these traders, nearly everything has a trading implication.

And that kind of thinking can fuel conspiratorial theories about why something did or did not happen.

Take, for instance, a recent White House press briefing in which press secretary Karoline Leavitt left the room seconds before hitting 65 minutes. To most, that was unremarkable.

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Yet on Kalshi, that looked like a secret message, because many thousands of dollars in bets were at stake that she would cross the 65-minute mark.

The chatter about Leavitt was mentioned on CNBC, which got the attention of traders on Discord, who wondered if this or another incident will ever lead to a PMT, prediction market trader, testifying in Washington about rigging the markets.

“PMT getting called before Congress,” wrote a Discord user, whose handle is “permanent resident of hell,” they added: “Let’s get a market on it.”

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DOJ investigating Gov. Tim Walz and Mayor Jacob Frey, sources say

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DOJ investigating Gov. Tim Walz and Mayor Jacob Frey, sources say

The Justice Department is investigating Minnesota officials, including Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey under the theory they conspired to impede federal immigration agents through public statements they have made, a senior law enforcement official and a person familiar with the matter told NBC News.

Minneapolis has been the backdrop of intensifying protests since an ICE officer fatally shot Renee Nicole Good, a mother of three and a U.S. citizen, last week. Immigration enforcement arrived in Minneapolis weeks ago, but federal officers have flooded the city since Good’s shooting.

Both Walz and Frey have been at odds with federal officials who have argued the officer, Jonathan Ross, was justified in shooting Good. They have criticized the federal response and questioned why the FBI cut out local authorities from the probe into the Good shooting. CBS News first reported on the investigation.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey. Star Tribune via Getty; AP

Walz said in a statement Friday the investigation is purely political.

“Two days ago it was Elissa Slotkin. Last week it was Jerome Powell. Before that, Mark Kelly. Weaponizing the justice system and threatening political opponents is a dangerous, authoritarian tactic,” he said. “The only person not being investigated for the shooting of Renee Good is the federal agent who shot her,” he said.

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Frey said in a statement in response to reports of the DOJ investigation that he “will not be intimidated.”

“This is an obvious attempt to intimidate me for standing up for Minneapolis, our local law enforcement, and our residents against the chaos and danger this Administration has brought to our streets,” he said.

He added, “Neither our city nor our country will succumb to this fear. We stand rock solid.”

The Justice Department declined to comment. The federal statute used in the investigation into Minnesota officials has been rarely used and has roots in the Civil War-era. But it was on a list of statutes listed in a memo from Attorney General Pam Bondi last month, obtained by NBC News, that offered a roadmap for federal prosecutors on how to boost investigations into individuals she dubbed domestic terrorists.

Bondi posted on X Friday, “A reminder to all those in Minnesota: No one is above the law.”

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The prospect of an investigation which would involve political speech by public officials raises First Amendment concerns that normally would involve a consultation with the Justice Department’s Public Integrity Section before federal officials opened a criminal probe into public figures or took any proactive investigative steps, according to a person familiar with the matter.

But the Public Integrity Section has been decimated and sidelined in Trump’s second term.

Aaron Terry, director of public advocacy for the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, said in a statement Friday that if criticism of the administration’s immigration enforcement operations is the basis for the investigation, “it is blatantly unconstitutional and intolerable in a free society.”

“The right to condemn government action without fear of government punishment is the foundation of the First Amendment,” Terry said.

In Minneapolis, tensions continue to run high; a federal officer shot a man in the leg in Minneapolis on Thursday night after he allegedly fled a traffic stop and attacked an officer.

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Video: Will the ICE Agent Who Shot Renee Good Be Prosecuted?

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Video: Will the ICE Agent Who Shot Renee Good Be Prosecuted?

new video loaded: Will the ICE Agent Who Shot Renee Good Be Prosecuted?

With the Trump administration unlikely to bring a federal case against the ICE agent who killed Renee Good, our criminal justice reporter Jonah Bromwich explains some of the obstacles for any Minnesota prosecutors trying to charge the agent.

By Jonah E. Bromwich, Christina Shaman, Nikolay Nikolov, June Kim and Sutton Raphael

January 16, 2026

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