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How South Korea’s new president could shake up the region
Yoon is a newcomer to politics, having spent the final 27 years of his profession as a prosecutor — however he’ll face an array of challenges when he replaces liberal incumbent President Moon Jae-in within the Blue Home on Could 10.
This is what a Yoon presidency may imply for South Korea.
Hardline on North Korea
A lot of Yoon’s marketing campaign targeted on his powerful stance on North Korea — a departure from Moon’s present method, which has persistently promoted dialogue and peaceable reconciliation.
Talks between the 2 Koreas have stalled since a deliberate US-North Korea summit fell aside in 2019, mentioned Cheong Seong-chang, director of the Middle for North Korean Research on the Sejong Institute, forward of the election. “It is unlikely to anticipate any progress in denuclearization negotiations except the following authorities comes up with a classy denuclearization answer that’s acceptable to each the US and North Korea,” he added.
Yoon’s essential rival within the election, Lee, from the Democratic Celebration, had supported the type of reciprocal, trust-based engagement sought by Moon. Yoon, against this, has promised to construct up South Korea’s army, even hinting that he would launch a pre-emptive strike if he noticed indicators of an offensive launch towards Seoul.
All through his marketing campaign, Yoon has slammed the Democratic Celebration’s “subservient North Korea coverage,” vowing to not ease sanctions or put together a peace treaty till the North “makes lively efforts in full and verifiable denuclearization.”
Talking in Seoul on January 24, Yoon added that the door to diplomacy and dialogue will “at all times be left open” — however that he would pursue a peace that’s “based mostly on robust nationwide protection posture, not of submission.”
“We’ll construct a robust army drive that may assuredly deter any provocation to guard the protection and property of our residents and safeguard the territorial integrity and sovereignty of our nation,” Yoon mentioned.
However specialists warn this tougher line may see relations worsen between the 2 international locations. Some worry army tensions may return to the disaster ranges seen in 2017, when North Korea’s aggressive weapons testing and development prompted US-South Korea exhibits of army drive, in addition to a risk from then-US President Donald Trump to unleash “hearth and fury just like the world has by no means seen.”
Cheong, from the Sejong Institute, mentioned it appeared clear that Yoon’s election would trigger inter-Korean relations to “return to the hostile relationship of the Chilly Conflict period.”
The US-China tightrope
Yoon’s win may also probably shift South Korea’s relationship with two feuding world superpowers: the US and China.
For years, the nation has walked a tightrope of an in depth safety alliance with the US, and a rising financial relationship with China — however “the time and interval for that type of custom is ending,” mentioned Kim Jiyoon, analysis fellow at Sogang College’s Institute of Social Sciences.
Whereas Lee urged he would attempt to steadiness each partnerships, Yoon has made clear which he’ll prioritize.
“South Korea and the USA share an alliance solid in blood as we’ve got fought collectively to guard freedom towards the tyranny of communism,” Yoon mentioned in January, including that the nation should “rebuild this alliance.”
As a part of this push, Yoon has urged he would search the installment of a second anti-ballistic missile system — which might undoubtedly provoke fury from China.
Below the brand new administration,”it’s inevitable that South Korea-China relations will deteriorate once more, additional narrowing South Korea’s diplomatic place and taking a sure blow to the Korean economic system,” Cheong mentioned.
Yoon has additionally pointed to the technological benefits of a better alliance with the US, arguing it may assist South Korea preserve its edge towards “aggressive nations together with China.”
Yoon’s place displays public sentiment within the South, which is at the moment “hawkish and really hardline,” mentioned Kim from Sogang College. That is most likely “the best antagonism for China shared by the Korean public — which implies a really robust and pleasant feeling towards the USA,” she added.
That feeling seems to be reciprocated. Biden and Yoon had a name on Thursday, with the US President inviting Yoon to go to the White Home. Biden added that he hoped for deeper bilateral relations with South Korea and that “shut coordination … concerning North Korean coverage will probably be essential.”
Issues at house
South Korea’s gender conflict intensified within the run-up to the election, with younger voters more and more cut up alongside gender traces.
Dealing with a hypercompetitive job market and skyrocketing housing costs, so-called “anti-feminists” claimed the nation’s bid to deal with gender inequality had tipped too far in ladies’s favor. Feminists, in the meantime, pointed to the nation’s widespread sexual violence, entrenched gender expectations, and low feminine illustration in boardrooms and in politics as examples of how discrimination towards ladies continues to be rife.
Each main presidential candidates leaned into the problem, with Lee voicing assist for girls’s rights whereas Yoon actively courted votes amongst anti-feminists. Certainly one of Yoon’s main marketing campaign guarantees was to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Household — claiming it’s unfair to males. He additionally promised to lift the penalty for falsely reporting intercourse crimes.
CNN approached Yoon’s workplace for touch upon his gender insurance policies however didn’t obtain a response.
Anti-feminists have made themselves a robust voting bloc in South Korea. Final April, Moon’s Democratic Celebration misplaced mayoral elections in each Seoul and its second largest metropolis Busan, with exit polls exhibiting younger males of their 20s had overwhelmingly shifted their vote to Yoon’s Folks Energy Celebration.
Because the election approached, some nervous that if Yoon received, gender divisions may widen even additional, and the ladies’s rights motion may very well be set again.
“The gender hole is the widest among the many younger technology,” Kim mentioned. “When you go as much as the older technology, it is truly converging, but it surely’s the widest and probably the most divergent between younger females and younger males.”