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Kamala Harris’ chances of winning Wisconsin, new polls show

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Kamala Harris’ chances of winning Wisconsin, new polls show


The battle for Wisconsin is caught in a dead heat between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in the final days of the 2024 election.

The Badger State is set to be among a handful of states that could tip the results of the presidential election. Harris held a slight lead in the key swing state shortly after she entered the presidential race, but the gap with Trump has closed as November 5 inches closer.

President Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020, flipping the state that sided with Trump during his first presidential run in 2016. But Trump lost the state by just 0.63 percentage points, or around 20,000 votes. Four years prior, Trump beat then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by just 0.7 percentage points.

According to FiveThirtyEight, as of Wednesday, the vice president is leading her Republican opponent by 0.4 points on average across statewide polls, and several recent surveys have found that the candidates are tied in Wisconsin. In a poll released by Quinnipiac University on Wednesday, Harris and Trump were locked at 48 percent apiece, based on the responses of 1,108 likely voters.

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Former President Donald Trump, left, speaks at a rally on October 6 in Juneau, Wisconsin. Trump is caught in a dead heat in the Badger State against Vice President Kamala Harris, right, who’s pictured at…


Scott Olson/Getty Images;KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/AFP via Getty Images

A poll by Morning Consult and Bloomberg garnered the same results, with Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent among 624 likely voters. A survey by the Trafalgar Group, a conservative pollster, from October 18 to October 20, also found Harris and Trump locked at 46.8 percent each among 1,083 likely voters in Wisconsin.

Harris was given a small lead in a poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph, that was released Monday, with the vice president ahead 47 percent to 46 percent among 730 eligible Wisconsin voters surveyed from October 16 to October 18. The results, however, fall within the poll’s margin of error of 3.63 percent.

Trump was found ahead by 1 point (50 percent to 49 percent) in a poll released last week by Napolitan News. But given the poll’s margin of error of 3.5 percent, the results are considered a toss-up.

Both campaigns have prioritized stops in Wisconsin in the final weeks of the election. Harris stopped in three different cities on Thursday in an effort to motivate voters before the state’s first day of early voting on Tuesday.

Former President Barack Obama later hosted a “get out the vote” event in Madison on the day polls opened alongside Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, during which the duo highlighted the closeness of the race.

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“When the stakes are the highest, winners are the ones who step up, and that’s exactly what we’re going to do,” Walz said during the event at the Alliant Energy Center.

Trump made four stops in Wisconsin in an eight-day span at the start of the month. The former president took a different tone than his Democratic opponents, and spoke confidently about his chances come November.

“They say that Wisconsin is probably the toughest of the swing states to win,” Trump said during an event in Juneau on October 6. “I don’t think so.”

State election officials said that over 97,000 people cast absentee ballots in person on the first day of early voting this week in Wisconsin, a jump from the nearly 80,000 who cast ballots on the opening day of voting in 2020.

As of Wednesday, 475,460 absentee ballots had been returned. There are over 3.5 million voters registered in Wisconsin, but registration is open through Election Day.

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Wisconsin former four-star quarterback Mabrey Mettauer appears headed for transfer portal

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Wisconsin former four-star quarterback Mabrey Mettauer appears headed for transfer portal


MADISON – It appears that the Wisconsin football team will have almost a completely new quarterback room next season.

Mabrey Mettauer, the last scholarship player left at the position on the roster from this season, is expected to enter the transfer portal, according to 247sports. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound true freshman from The Woodlands, Texas, was a consensus four-star recruit coming out of high school.

This season he served as the top backup to Braedyn Locke after Tyler Van Dyke suffered a season-ending knee injury against Alabama. Mettauer appeared in one game and completed his only pass attempt.

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He maintained his redshirt status and will have four years of eligibility remaining.

Mabrey’s departure was the last domino to fall from the firing of Phil Longo as offensive coordinator. Like Van Dyke and Locke, Mettauer came to Wisconsin with the idea that he would play in Longo’s pass-friendly offense.

Locke’s brother, Landyn, a member of the 2025 recruiting class, was also recruited by Longo. Landyn Locke has been released from his letter of intent and has re-opened his recruitment.

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After 247sports broken the news of Mettauer’s expected departure he reposted the post on his X and Instagram accounts.

The loss of Mettauer means Wisconsin has three scholarship quarterbacks plus walk-on Milos Spasojevic on the roster for next season:

* Billy Edwards Jr., who started this season at Maryland and threw for 2,800 yards. He has one year of eligibility left.

* Danny O’Neil, who started at San Diego State as a true freshman and threw for 2,000 yards this season. He has three years of eligibility remaining.

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* Carter Smith, a four-star prospect from Florida, will enroll early and participate in spring practice.



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14-year-old killed in Wisconsin school shooting shared gifts of music and art with many, friends say

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14-year-old killed in Wisconsin school shooting shared gifts of music and art with many, friends say


MADISON, Wis. — Rubi Patricia Vergara was a talented young teenager who often handcrafted gifts for others and shared her musical talents with many, family friends recounted at funeral services held Saturday morning.

14-year-old killed in Wisconsin school shooting shared gifts of music and art with many, friends say

Vergara, 14, was a student at Abundant Life Christian School in Madison, Wisconsin, where she was shot and killed by a fellow student Monday. Teacher Erin West, 42, was also killed in the attack.

“She was a quiet, gentle spirit who cared deeply for others,” City Church lead pastor Tom Flaherty said. “But Rubi also had a faith beyond her years.”

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Vergara’s services were held at City Church, which is adjacent to the school. West’s funeral is set for Monday at Doxa Church in Madison, according to her obituary.

Two other injured students remained hospitalized Saturday in critical condition but were stable, UW Hospital said.

A family friend, Dawn Moris, spoke about Vergara’s compassion and empathy. Vergara made personalized birthday cards for loved ones with digital artwork, origami and had started crocheting. Moris showed those in the congregation a small crocheted smiley face potato crafted by Vergara.

“She applied a caring and creative approach to everything she did,” Moris said.

Vergara played keyboard in a family worship band and could hear a song and pick it up on the piano, Moris said. As a singer, she had a special talent of harmonizing and “sang like an angel,” Moris said.

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Vergara’s aunt played her niece’s favorite song, “Shoulders” by for King & Country, on the guitar during the service. Her uncle, Andy Remus, thanked the people of Madison for supporting his family this past week.

Police say the shooter, 15-year-old student Natalie “Samantha” Rupnow, shot herself at the school and died at a Madison hospital. Police have said she was in contact with a man in California who authorities say was planning to attack a government building. Rupnow’s motivation for the attack remains a key part of their investigation.

Volmert reported from Lansing, Michigan.

This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.

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Teenager accused in Wisconsin school shooting had a tumultuous family life, court documents show

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Teenager accused in Wisconsin school shooting had a tumultuous family life, court documents show


MADISON, Wis. — A 15-year-old girl who police say killed two people and wounded multiple others at a private Christian school in Wisconsin endured what appeared to be a tumultuous home life marked by divorces, custody battles and a series of court-mandated mediation sessions to resolve disputes over her care, according to court documents obtained by NBC News.

Jeff and Mellissa Rupnow married and divorced twice, during which their daughter Natalie Rupnow would at times travel between her parents’ homes every few days and attend therapy.

They married in 2011 and divorced for the first time in 2014, according to court documents.

The two agreed to joint custody of Natalie, but she would live primarily with her mother, the documents state.

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They remarried in 2017, according to their marriage certificate obtained by NBC, but filed for divorce a second time in 2020. Mellissa and Jeff Rupnow again agreed to share custody of Natalie, but this time she would spend “equal time with both parents,” the court documents show. A divorce certificate obtained by NBC News shows their divorce was finalized in 2021.

Natalie Rupnow, who also went by Samantha, shot and killed a teacher and a student and wounded six others during study hall on Monday at Abundant Life Christian School in Madison, Wisconsin, before dying from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound, police said. The victims were identified as Erin M. West, 42, and Rubi P. Vergara, 14.

Two students who sustained life-threatening injuries during the shooting remained in the hospital and the other four injured have been discharged, police said.

The FBI detained Alexander Paffendorf, 20, in California earlier this week and ordered him to temporarily surrender his firearms after he allegedly communicated with Natalie Rupnow. Authorities say Paffendorf admitted to discussing plans with Rupnow to arm himself with explosives and target a government building. The FBI uncovered messages between the two but did not disclose their alleged plans.

Paffendorf and his family could not immediately be reached for comment.

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A makeshift memorial at Abundant Life Christian School in Madison, Wis., on Dec. 17.Jamie Kelter Davis / New York Times via Redux

The apparent turmoil in Natalie Rupnow’s family life, as documented by court records, offer a glimpse into events that may have shaped her path before Monday’s tragedy.

In 2022, Mellissa and Jeff Rupnow sought mediation for custody of Natalie. That May, Dane County Family Court Services notified the parents of a requirement to attend a “mandatory parent education program via Zoom” due to a “disagreement concerning child custody and/or physical placement.” A month later, according to court documents, Mellissa Rupnow had “been scheduled to attend on June 2nd and June 16, 2022, but did not appear” for the Parent Education Program. Shortly after, the couple was asked to appear for a “mandatory mediation session in person appointment.”

In July 2022, an agreement was reached, granting them joint legal custody of Natalie, who would primarily live with her father, according to court documents. The documents also indicate that the parents agreed to “consider Natalie’s therapist’s recommendations regarding placement” for Natalie during the weekends.

Natalie’s mother agreed to connect with her therapist and “participate in therapy to the extent recommended by the therapist,” according to the court documents. Natalie’s father would make “every effort to schedule therapy appointments” to accommodate the mother’s schedule.

The court documents noted that “the parents report a generally positive co-parenting relationship and will continue to communicate with one another by text messages and phone conversations.”

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Jeff and Mellissa Rupnow did not respond to multiple requests for comment. Madison Police Chief Shon Barnes said the two are “fully cooperating” with investigators, who are still trying to identify a motive and have not released many details on the teenager.

“Identifying a motive is our top priority. But at this time, it appears that the motive was a combination of factors,” Barnes said at a news conference.

Trish Kilpin, the director of Wisconsin’s Office of School Safety, said on Monday that “targeted violence is preventable.”

“When somebody decides to use violence, it’s often to redress an upset or a grievance, and they progress down a pathway towards that violence,” Kilpin said. “And when they do that, they often study previous school shooting incidents.”

A neighbor of Jeff Rupnow’s who spoke to NBC News expressed shock when he learned about the shooting and described Jeff as a “kind person.”

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“He really helped us out,” said the neighbor, who did not want his name used out of fear of publicity about the case. “I know we’re still trying to piece everything together.”

The neighbor indicated he didn’t know Natalie, saying “the very limited things we knew, it’s horrifying for everyone, obviously, and just horrifying for the families of the school and those kids.”

Selina Guevara reported from Madison, and Chloe Atkins and Daniella Silva reported from New York City.



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