Wisconsin
How Wisconsin became the must-win state of the 2024 presidential race
There’s nothing easy about winning a statewide race in Wisconsin.
Over the past 25 years, Democrats and Republicans have braced themselves for hard-fought fights in the politically-polarized state, with most presidential contenders stumping in the state so much that voters truly feel like they’re part of the action.
Wisconsin has 10 Electoral College votes, which certainly isn’t the largest haul. (That would be California, with its 54 electoral votes.)
But the Badger State has arguably become the most consequential state on the 2024 presidential map by virtue of its Midwestern sensibilities and the highly competitive nature of its closely divided electorate, which makes it a bellwether for the politics of the United States.
In what is likely to be a contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the state is set to once again be at the center of the political universe in November.
How did Wisconsin become such a key battleground?
The growing urban-rural divide
It’s generally accepted that presidential races in Wisconsin will be decided by razor-thin margins.
In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore won the state over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush by a 0.22% margin. Four years later, then-Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry defeated Bush in the state by a 0.38% margin.
The common denominator: Democrats romped in the urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison, while also performing well in the Driftless Area and in blue-leaning northern counties. And while Democrats did not win many of the rural counties, they remained competitive overall, allowing them to eek out slim wins statewide.
Barack Obama changed this narrative in 2008 and 2012, though, winning by broad margins of roughly 14 points and 7 points, respectively. In the first race, Obama performed powerfully across rural Wisconsin, a huge breakthrough for Democrats.
But in 2016, Trump flipped Wisconsin into the GOP column for the first time since 1984, winning by a 0.77% margin and breaking down the “blue wall” that had held for decades.
Four years later, Biden won Wisconsin for the Democrats by a similarly tight 0.63% margin.
While both parties are clearly competitive in Wisconsin, the urban-rural divide — similar to much of the United States — has only grown wider. In the Badger State, heavily gerrymandered GOP-crafted districts and conservative rule dominating Madison for more than a decade — in what’s essentially a 50-50 state — have hardened partisan levels.
What will a Trump vs. Harris matchup look like?
This year, Harris and Trump are competing for many of the same voters, but they’re also appealing heavily to their respective bases.
After Biden stepped aside as the Democratic nominee in July, Harris’ first major political rally as a presidential contender was held in West Allis, a suburb in Milwaukee County.
This was not by accident.
The vice president will need to win the county — filled with Democratic-leaning independents and voters in deep blue Milwaukee — by a sizable margin to offset what’s expected to be Trump’s strength across rural parts of the state.
Trump earlier this summer campaigned in Racine, as he hopes to carve out working-class support in an area that’s politically competitive but in recent years has leaned toward the GOP on the presidential level.
Both parties are itching to win the state: Republicans held their national convention in Milwaukee earlier in July, where Trump also tapped Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his vice presidential running mate. And Harris could potentially select Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, which would put another Midwestern voice in the vice presidential mix.
The 2024 race will be centered on the economy, and whoever makes the most persuasive argument will likely win Wisconsin.
But the messenger will matter.
Even as Biden ended his campaign, Wisconsin was the swing state where he remained best positioned ahead of the fall, as his support among white working-class voters there had not collapsed.
While it will likely take another week to get a better sense of Harris’ standing in the state, early polling indicates another close contest. A Fox News poll taken after Biden’s exit showed Trump leading Harris by one point (50% to 49%) among registered voters.
But this is Wisconsin, after all. The political suspense is here to stay.
There are several events happening across the area this weekend, including festivals, sports, and art exhibits.
Art in Bloom transforms the Milwaukee Art Museum with floral installations inspired by artwork in the museum. The annual event runs through Sunday, and timed tickets are needed.
It is the opening weekend of the 18th annual Milwaukee Film Festival. Screenings are taking place at the Downer and Oriental theaters. Several local films are being screened along with national and international films.
WATCH: Art in Bloom, Milwaukee Film Festival and more. What are you doing this weekend?
Wisconsin Weekend in a Minute
Wee Whiskey Fest returns to Lake Geneva with a full weekend of tastings, entertainment, and events. Saturday’s Grand Tasting features more than 150 premium bourbons and whiskies, with more festivities happening all weekend long.
At the Milwaukee Admirals game tonight, it is Fair Deal Friday. Fans who grab an Admirals ticket will get a free Fair ticket. It is also Fan Appreciation Night with plenty of giveaways, and the first 2,500 fans will get a one-of-a-kind Admirals and Brewers t-shirt.
This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.
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(WLUK) — Many roads remain closed as Northeast Wisconsin continues to deal with the effects of heavy rain and flooding.
The Wisconsin Department of Transportation released this list of road closures Thursday for state highways in the area:
Highway 147 is closed at Church Street in Mishicot due to flooding.
- A detour route is posted using County V, WIS 42 and County VV.
Highway 54 is closed in both directions from near N. Maple Street/Highway 47 in Black Creek to Hooyman Road/County M west of Shiocton due to flooding on roadway.
- Alternate route for southbound: Take Highway 47 to County S to County M.
- Reverse for northbound.
Highway 76 is closed in both directions from East Avenue in Shiocton to Oak Crest Drive in Stephensville due to flooding on roadway.
- No detour is available with all other county roadways flooded in this area as well. Planned to be closed indefinitely.
Highway 76 is closed in both directions from County D in Bear Creek to Highway 54 in Shiocton because of flooding on roadway.
- No detour is available with all other county roadways flooded in this area as well. Planned to be closed indefinitely.
Highway 54 is closed in both directions from Gorges Road in Northport to Jeanne Street in New London due to flooding on roadway. NOTE: Highway 45 north and south of New London is closed for an ongoing construction project.
- Alternate Route for eastbound traffic: Traffic will exit Highway 54 at Highway 110/22, north on Highway 110/22 to County BB, east on County BB to County B, north on County B to Highway 22, east on Highway 22 to US 45, north on US 45 to Highway 22, North on Highway 22 to Highway 156, East on Highway 156 to Highway 47, south on Highway 47 back to Highway 54.
- Reverse for westbound.
Highway 187 from Highway 156 in Shawano County to Highway 54 in Outagamie County is closed in both directions due to flooding.
- Alternate route for southbound: Highway 156 to Highway 47 to Highway 54.
- Reverse for northbound.
Highway 110 is closed in both directions south of Manawa from County B in Manawa to County BB due to flooding on roadway.
- Alternate route for northbound: Northbound traffic will exit WIS 110 at County BB, east on County BB to County B, north on County B back to Highway 110.
- Reverse for southbound.
If you can safely take a photo or video of conditions where you are, share it with us here:
The DOT also gave these tips for safe driving during flood conditions:
- Please make sure you have the flooding tab clicked on the 511 map to view all locations of flooding.
- Never attempt to cross a water-covered road. Just 12 inches of moving water can sweep a vehicle off the road.
- Do not ignore barricades or road closure signs.
Flash flooding can occur suddenly anywhere in the area.
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- Always check current road conditions before traveling:
- Visit the 511 Wisconsin website for the latest weather and road alerts.
- Motorists should plan extra time for travel, use designated alternate routes, and exercise extreme caution in low-lying areas. Conditions may change rapidly.
- For the latest updates, monitor the 511 Wisconsin website. Stay safe and drive smart when in doubt, turn around and find another way.
- For real-time information, please check the 511 Wisconsin website or call 511.
(WLUK) — More rain is on the way for Northeast Wisconsin.
Flood warnings are currently in effect for many area rivers and streams as recent rainfall has pushed some to reach flood level.
This morning, there’s a dense fog advisory in place.
Visibility could drop to a quarter mile in some places.
Today there’s a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms.
It will then become mostly sunny with a high near 66.
Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with a high of 70 before our Next Weathermaker brings showers and thunderstorms late in the day and into the evening.
Some of those storms could become severe with damaging wind, large hail and a few tornadoes.
Our area is in a level 2 and 3 out of 5 for severe weather risk.
If you see severe weather in your area and can safely take a photo or video, Chime In here:
After the rain tomorrow night, we should have a string of dry days, which will help with dropping high river levels.
Saturday we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds.
It will be windy with a high near 48.
Winds could gust to 35 mph out of the northwest.
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Click here for Director of Meteorology Pete Petoniak’s full forecast.
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