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How Wisconsin became the must-win state of the 2024 presidential race

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How Wisconsin became the must-win state of the 2024 presidential race


There’s nothing easy about winning a statewide race in Wisconsin.

Over the past 25 years, Democrats and Republicans have braced themselves for hard-fought fights in the politically-polarized state, with most presidential contenders stumping in the state so much that voters truly feel like they’re part of the action.

Wisconsin has 10 Electoral College votes, which certainly isn’t the largest haul. (That would be California, with its 54 electoral votes.)

But the Badger State has arguably become the most consequential state on the 2024 presidential map by virtue of its Midwestern sensibilities and the highly competitive nature of its closely divided electorate, which makes it a bellwether for the politics of the United States.

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In what is likely to be a contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the state is set to once again be at the center of the political universe in November.

How did Wisconsin become such a key battleground?

The growing urban-rural divide

It’s generally accepted that presidential races in Wisconsin will be decided by razor-thin margins.

In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore won the state over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush by a 0.22% margin. Four years later, then-Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry defeated Bush in the state by a 0.38% margin.

The common denominator: Democrats romped in the urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison, while also performing well in the Driftless Area and in blue-leaning northern counties. And while Democrats did not win many of the rural counties, they remained competitive overall, allowing them to eek out slim wins statewide.

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Barack Obama changed this narrative in 2008 and 2012, though, winning by broad margins of roughly 14 points and 7 points, respectively. In the first race, Obama performed powerfully across rural Wisconsin, a huge breakthrough for Democrats.

But in 2016, Trump flipped Wisconsin into the GOP column for the first time since 1984, winning by a 0.77% margin and breaking down the “blue wall” that had held for decades.

Four years later, Biden won Wisconsin for the Democrats by a similarly tight 0.63% margin.

While both parties are clearly competitive in Wisconsin, the urban-rural divide — similar to much of the United States — has only grown wider. In the Badger State, heavily gerrymandered GOP-crafted districts and conservative rule dominating Madison for more than a decade — in what’s essentially a 50-50 state — have hardened partisan levels.

What will a Trump vs. Harris matchup look like?

This year, Harris and Trump are competing for many of the same voters, but they’re also appealing heavily to their respective bases.

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After Biden stepped aside as the Democratic nominee in July, Harris’ first major political rally as a presidential contender was held in West Allis, a suburb in Milwaukee County.

This was not by accident.

The vice president will need to win the county — filled with Democratic-leaning independents and voters in deep blue Milwaukee — by a sizable margin to offset what’s expected to be Trump’s strength across rural parts of the state.

Trump earlier this summer campaigned in Racine, as he hopes to carve out working-class support in an area that’s politically competitive but in recent years has leaned toward the GOP on the presidential level.

Both parties are itching to win the state: Republicans held their national convention in Milwaukee earlier in July, where Trump also tapped Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his vice presidential running mate. And Harris could potentially select Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, which would put another Midwestern voice in the vice presidential mix.

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The 2024 race will be centered on the economy, and whoever makes the most persuasive argument will likely win Wisconsin.

But the messenger will matter.

Even as Biden ended his campaign, Wisconsin was the swing state where he remained best positioned ahead of the fall, as his support among white working-class voters there had not collapsed.

While it will likely take another week to get a better sense of Harris’ standing in the state, early polling indicates another close contest. A Fox News poll taken after Biden’s exit showed Trump leading Harris by one point (50% to 49%) among registered voters.

But this is Wisconsin, after all. The political suspense is here to stay.

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These Wisconsin swing voters say Trump’s war in Iran wasn’t worth it

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These Wisconsin swing voters say Trump’s war in Iran wasn’t worth it


Vessels are anchored along the Strait of Hormuz.

Amirhossein Khorgooei/ISNA/AFP via Getty Images


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Amirhossein Khorgooei/ISNA/AFP via Getty Images

The war in Iran was a costly blunder, according to swing voters in the battleground state of Wisconsin.

NPR observed two online focus groups on Tuesday featuring voters who supported Joe Biden in 2020 and then Donald Trump in 2024.

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President Trump had just announced a framework agreement to end the war, which he signed on Wednesday.

Yet among the focus groups’ 13 participants, no one said they thought the conflict with Iran was “worth it,” and nine said they felt that the U.S. is coming out of this conflict weaker than before.

Corey M., a 33-year-old independent voter, said he is concerned that the U.S. expended “so much financially and so much of our arsenal,” with little to show for it. (All participants agreed to be part of the focus groups on the condition that they be identified by their first name and last initial only.)

“We essentially got nothing out of it,” he said. “It’s hurt our economy and increased expenses for the everyday American, and it accomplished the square root of nothing.”

Focus groups are not scientifically significant like polling. But they provide insight into how Americans are thinking about what they see in the news.

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These focus groups — made up of 10 self-described independents, two Democrats and one Republican — were conducted by messaging and market research firms Engagious and Sago as part of the Swing Voter Project. NPR is a partner on the project.

Rich Thau, president of Engagious, moderated the focus groups. He has been asking voters in key states about this conflict since March. And he said voters have been consistent.

“They were never on board,” Thau said. “Not the beginning. Not in the middle. And as we just learned, not at the end either, judging from what we heard from Wisconsin swing voters.”

Sam M., a 30-year-old independent, said from what he read about the deal, it wasn’t leaving the U.S. in a better position than before the war. In fact, he said he thought the Iran nuclear deal brokered by the Obama administration — which Trump backed out of — was a better deal for the United States.



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President of Wisconsin’s largest mosque released from ICE custody

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President of Wisconsin’s largest mosque released from ICE custody


A federal judge has ordered the release of the president of Wisconsin’s largest mosque, after finding that immigration officials probably detained him in retaliation against his public advocacy for Palestinian rights, suppressing his first amendment rights in the process.

The US district judge James Patrick Hanlon’s order on Thursday marked a sharp rebuke against Trump officials, including the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, who had tried to paint Salah Sarsour as a national security threat.

“Salah Sarsour, who has lived in this country for more than three decades and served as a core pillar in his community without any issues, should never have been detained in the first place,” his legal team wrote in a statement. “While we continue to fight these baseless claims in court, today is about celebrating a family being reunited. It is also a sober reminder that, if the government can target Mr Sarsour, everyone’s free speech rights are at risk.”

Sarsour describes himself as a stateless Palestinian, according to the order. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) says that he is a Jordanian citizen. He has lived in the United States for more than three decades, becoming a legal permanent resident in 1998. Immigration officials approved Sarsour’s citizenship application decades ago, though he did not naturalize.

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Sarsour has garnered public attention as a champion for Palestinian rights, and serves as a board member of an advocacy group called American Muslims for Palestine.

But Rubio personally signed off on a memo to the DHS last year describing Sarsour as deportable despite his green card, because “his actions undermine US foreign policy to combat antisemitism around the world”. The memo, cited in Hanlon’s order, accuses Sarsour’s group of being “found to have been involved in activities providing funds to Hamas”.

A group of plainclothes ICE officers from at least 10 unmarked vehicles swarmed Sarsour on 30 March of this year, arresting him and putting him in deportation proceedings. ICE ultimately detained him in Clay county jail in Indiana.

Sarsour lost 30lb while detained, the order says. His lawyers told the court that he was “at constant risk of developing serious complications from diabetes given that the medical staff only checks his blood-sugar levels once a month”. Tightly controlling diabetes typically requires multiple glucose checks daily.

Hanlon’s order says that homeland security officials and Rubio probably trampled on Sarsour’s first amendment right to free speech and appeared to have arrested him in retaliation for his Palestinian rights advocacy.

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The order cited a New York Times story and the website for the Heritage Foundation, the conservative thinktank that dreamed up Project 2025,

The Heritage Foundation presented the White House with the idea to present prominent foreign-born Muslims and Palestinian rights leaders as terrorists in order to sue them, deport them or pressure employers to fire them, the order says, citing reporting from the Times and Heritage’s own website. Sarsour was probably among the targets of that campaign, the order says.

The federal government, through its lawyers, contended that Sarsour should be deported based on two convictions from more than three decades ago in Israel – one for throwing a molotov cocktail and the other for attempting to store weapons and ammunition.

Sarsour denies having committed those crimes.

But Hanlon viewed those crimes as a non-issue for justifying his incarceration, noting that the federal government knew about them since the 1990s and approved his legal permanent residency and his citizenship application anyway.

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Sarsour’s speech on Palestinian rights “is core political speech and squarely within the scope of the First Amendment”, the order says. “Mr Sarsour has submitted evidence allowing a reasonable inference that his protected speech was ‘at least a motivating factor’ in Respondents’ decision to detain him.”

A spokesperson for homeland security described Sarsour as a “terrorist”, citing the convictions from his youth in Israel.

Government lawyers had argued that Sarsour did not have the same first amendment rights as US citizens. If he were released, they said, he should have to pay a $25,000 bond, wear an ankle monitor, check in routinely with ICE and remain confined to his house.

Instead, Hanlon ordered his release on personal recognizance, meaning that Sarsour does not have to pay a cash bond to compel him to show up in court again. The order, however, requires him to remain in the state of Wisconsin.



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Couple asks Wisconsin Supreme Court to hear Brewers 50-50 raffle prize dispute

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Couple asks Wisconsin Supreme Court to hear Brewers 50-50 raffle prize dispute


(WLUK) – A couple challenging the decision not to award them a 50-50 raffle prize at a Milwaukee Brewers game asked the Wisconsin Supreme Court to take the case, calling it one of “statewide importance.”

Matthew and Annette Flynn purchased ten raffle tickets at the July 7, 2023, game, and held the winning number which was originally selected for $13,000. According to court records, the raffle rules in effect at the time required the winning ticket holder to claim the prize at a designated 50-50 table by the end of the top of the seventh inning. Flynn said she did not see the winning number displayed or hear it announced and was directed by stadium personnel to another location before making her way to the claim table. Officials determined she did not arrive before the deadline and selected a new winning ticket.

The Flynns sued, but the circuit and appeals courts ruled the raffle’s rules gave the foundation sole discretion to determine the official winner and that the rules clearly stated a participant who failed to claim the prize within the specified time would be disqualified.

In a petition to the Wisconsin Supreme Court filed Wednesday, the Flynn’s asked the high court to take the case, saying the decision “affects not only the parties to this action but potentially every Wisconsin resident who participates in charitable raffles and similar gaming activities.”

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“This case presents significant questions concerning contractual discretion, discovery, judicial review of charitable gaming decisions, and the treatment of digital evidence within Wisconsin’s appellate system. For these reasons, Petitioners respectfully request that this Court grant review of the decision of the Court of Appeals,” the petition states.

The high court does not have to take the case. At some point, it will vote on if to take it. If it does, a months-long process to review the issues will begin. If it does not, the appeals court ruling would stand.

According to the rules posted on the Milwaukee Brewers’ website, the deadline to claim the prize is no longer during the game the tickets were purchased.

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“The Participant in possession of the Raffle ticket with the potential winning number may claim the Prize at the 50/50 Table located on the Loge (2nd) level concourse behind Sections 216/217 until such time as the Ballpark officially closes to fans after the end of the game. If the Participant in possession of the Raffle ticket with the potential winning number does not claim the Prize by the time the Ballpark closes to fans after the end of the game, that Participant may still claim the Prize within thirty (30) days after the conclusion of the Raffle Period for the respective baseball game by contacting the Raffle hotline (414-902-4334). A Prize that is not claimed within thirty (30) days after the conclusion of the Raffle Period will be awarded in compliance with applicable regulations,” the site states.



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