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How Wisconsin became the must-win state of the 2024 presidential race

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How Wisconsin became the must-win state of the 2024 presidential race


There’s nothing easy about winning a statewide race in Wisconsin.

Over the past 25 years, Democrats and Republicans have braced themselves for hard-fought fights in the politically-polarized state, with most presidential contenders stumping in the state so much that voters truly feel like they’re part of the action.

Wisconsin has 10 Electoral College votes, which certainly isn’t the largest haul. (That would be California, with its 54 electoral votes.)

But the Badger State has arguably become the most consequential state on the 2024 presidential map by virtue of its Midwestern sensibilities and the highly competitive nature of its closely divided electorate, which makes it a bellwether for the politics of the United States.

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In what is likely to be a contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the state is set to once again be at the center of the political universe in November.

How did Wisconsin become such a key battleground?

The growing urban-rural divide

It’s generally accepted that presidential races in Wisconsin will be decided by razor-thin margins.

In 2000, then-Vice President Al Gore won the state over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush by a 0.22% margin. Four years later, then-Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry defeated Bush in the state by a 0.38% margin.

The common denominator: Democrats romped in the urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison, while also performing well in the Driftless Area and in blue-leaning northern counties. And while Democrats did not win many of the rural counties, they remained competitive overall, allowing them to eek out slim wins statewide.

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Barack Obama changed this narrative in 2008 and 2012, though, winning by broad margins of roughly 14 points and 7 points, respectively. In the first race, Obama performed powerfully across rural Wisconsin, a huge breakthrough for Democrats.

But in 2016, Trump flipped Wisconsin into the GOP column for the first time since 1984, winning by a 0.77% margin and breaking down the “blue wall” that had held for decades.

Four years later, Biden won Wisconsin for the Democrats by a similarly tight 0.63% margin.

While both parties are clearly competitive in Wisconsin, the urban-rural divide — similar to much of the United States — has only grown wider. In the Badger State, heavily gerrymandered GOP-crafted districts and conservative rule dominating Madison for more than a decade — in what’s essentially a 50-50 state — have hardened partisan levels.

What will a Trump vs. Harris matchup look like?

This year, Harris and Trump are competing for many of the same voters, but they’re also appealing heavily to their respective bases.

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After Biden stepped aside as the Democratic nominee in July, Harris’ first major political rally as a presidential contender was held in West Allis, a suburb in Milwaukee County.

This was not by accident.

The vice president will need to win the county — filled with Democratic-leaning independents and voters in deep blue Milwaukee — by a sizable margin to offset what’s expected to be Trump’s strength across rural parts of the state.

Trump earlier this summer campaigned in Racine, as he hopes to carve out working-class support in an area that’s politically competitive but in recent years has leaned toward the GOP on the presidential level.

Both parties are itching to win the state: Republicans held their national convention in Milwaukee earlier in July, where Trump also tapped Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his vice presidential running mate. And Harris could potentially select Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, which would put another Midwestern voice in the vice presidential mix.

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The 2024 race will be centered on the economy, and whoever makes the most persuasive argument will likely win Wisconsin.

But the messenger will matter.

Even as Biden ended his campaign, Wisconsin was the swing state where he remained best positioned ahead of the fall, as his support among white working-class voters there had not collapsed.

While it will likely take another week to get a better sense of Harris’ standing in the state, early polling indicates another close contest. A Fox News poll taken after Biden’s exit showed Trump leading Harris by one point (50% to 49%) among registered voters.

But this is Wisconsin, after all. The political suspense is here to stay.

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Wisconsin judge sends Slender Man attacker back to mental health institution after group home escape

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Wisconsin judge sends Slender Man attacker back to mental health institution after group home escape


MADISON, Wis. (AP) — A Wisconsin woman who almost killed her sixth-grade classmate to please the fictional horror villain known as Slender Man was ordered back to a state psychiatric hospital Tuesday after she escaped from her group home last month.

Waukesha County Circuit Judge K. Scott Wagner granted a state Department of Health Services request to revoke 23-year-old Morgan Geyser’s release privileges. Geyser told the judge through her attorney, Tony Cotton, last week that she would not fight revocation. Wagner then approved the request during a short hearing.

Cotton didn’t immediately respond to an email message seeking comment.

Geyser and her friend Anissa Weier lured their classmate, Payton Leutner, to a Waukesha park in 2014. Geyser stabbed Leutner 19 times while Weier cheered her on. A passing bicyclist discovered Leutner, who barely survived. All three girls were 12 years old at the time.

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Geyser and Weier later told investigators they attacked Leutner in hopes of impressing Slender Man enough that he would make them his servants and wouldn’t hurt their families. Both of them were eventually committed to the Winnebago Mental Health Institute — Geyser for 40 years and Weier for 25 years.

Weier earned conditional release in 2021. Wagner granted Geyser conditional release this past September despite warnings from state Department of Health Services officials that she couldn’t be trusted.

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Geyser was placed in a Madison group home. Authorities say that on Nov. 22 she cut off her GPS monitor and fled the state with a 43-year-old companion. Police arrested both of them the next day at a truck stop outside Chicago, about 170 miles (274 kilometers) south of Madison.

Geyser’s companion told WKOW-TV that the two of them became friends at church and had been seeing each other daily for the last month. Geyser decided to escape because she was afraid the group home would no longer allow them to see each other, the companion said.

Slender Man was created online by Eric Knudsen in 2009 as a mysterious figure photo-edited into everyday images of children at play. He grew into a popular boogeyman, appearing in video games, online stories and a 2018 movie.

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Wisconsin warns of “sextortion,” online crimes against kids

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Wisconsin warns of “sextortion,” online crimes against kids


The FBI calls it an online crime against kids – perpetrators convincing kids to send sexual images of themselves and then blackmailing them. 

Online crime against kids

The backstory:

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The reality is settling in. This will be Brittney Bird’s first Christmas without her son, Bradyn Bohn, since he was born. That is because just nine months ago, the 15-year-old died by suicide, just hours after telling his family good night. 

“This winter has been pretty heavy,” Bird said. “This will be a lot of first this year.”

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Bird said Bradyn was the kind of kid who would always try to make you launch. The teen had a lot of friends, played sports, did well academically, and had big plans for the future. 

“Definitely a kid who we were just so proud of,” Bird said. “Bradyn never struggled with or suffered from mental illness or depression or anything of that nature so immediately we knew, you know something’s wrong.”

Once police went through Bradyn’s phone, she said it came out he was the victim of the cyber crime, sextortion. 

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What is sextortion?

What we know:

“Sextortion is a form of online child exploitation where a child is coerced by a perpetrator to send compromising images,” said Jesse Crowe from the Wisconsin Department of Justice.

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This week, the Wisconsin Department of Justice sent out a public service announcement on sextortion

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Officials say suspects often pose as someone else online. While exchanging messages, they convince a child to send images of themselves. Once they have explicit images of the child, they use the photos or videos to blackmail the child into sending even more images, money or ask for sexual favors. 

FBI data, change in Wisconsin law

Dig deeper:

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The FBI said victims are typically males between the ages of 14 and 17, but any child can be a target. 

This crime led to at least 20 suicides between October 2021 and March 2023. 

In the months after Bradyn’s death, change would come to Wisconsin. Earlier in December, Gov. Tony Evers signed Bradyn’s Law. It creates a new crime of sexual extortion in Wisconsin. It aims to ensure harsh penalties for those who exploit children online. 

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“It will bring, hopefully statewide, eventually nationwide attention to where every family is having this conversation with their kids,” Bird told FOX6 News.

Take action

What you can do:

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The Department of Justice said the best thing to do if a child finds themselves in this situation is the following: 

  • Block the perpetrator
  • Report the account, but do not delete the messages
  • Tell a trusted adult
  • Do not send any money

Resources available

The Source: Information in this post was produced by FOX6 News.

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Trump names Christmas Eve, Dec. 26 federal holidays. What does that mean for Wisconsin?

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Trump names Christmas Eve, Dec. 26 federal holidays. What does that mean for Wisconsin?


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President Donald Trump declared Christmas Eve and Dec. 26 to be federal holidays this year.

The Dec. 18 executive order deems the days as work holidays for all federal departments and agencies, but adds some of them will remain open. Certain offices may stay open on one or both days for “national security, defense, or other public need,” the order reads.

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But, what does this mean for other federal workers and services?

Here’s what to know in Wisconsin:

Are Christmas Eve, Dec. 26 official federal holidays?

Even though Christmas Eve and Dec. 26 have been declared federal holidays in 2025, they are not permanent additions to the holiday schedule.

Legislation must be passed by Congress and then signed into law by the president for a federal holiday declaration to be official.

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Who gets Christmas Eve, Dec. 26 off in Wisconsin?

Only federal agencies are set to be closed on Christmas Eve and Dec. 26, according to USA TODAY.

Since these two days have not been designated permanent federal holidays, many businesses that follow the schedule will likely not give their employees a last-minute extended Christmas break.

Wisconsin state government and Milwaukee city offices are closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but will be open on Dec. 26.

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Will mail still be delivered on Christmas Eve, Dec. 26 in Wisconsin?

Yes. The U.S. Postal Service will deliver mail and post office locations will remain open on Christmas Eve and Dec. 26, according to its website. Mail will not be delivered and locations will be closed on Christmas.

Will banks be open on Christmas Eve, Dec. 26 in Wisconsin?

Yes. Banks will follow the typical schedule of being open on Christmas Eve and Dec. 26, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Banks will be closed on Christmas.

Mary Walrath-Holdridge of USA TODAY contributed to this report.

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