How did Wisconsin dodge a red wave? Both parties weigh in

MADISON Wis. (CBS 58) — Now that Wisconsin’s unofficial election outcomes are tallied, each events are weighing in on why they imagine voters made a cut up choice to reelect Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Senator Ron Johnson.

The quick reply – there have been a number of elements to Republicans falling wanting a pink wave, retired GOP-strategist Brandon Scholz mentioned.

WOW Counties, Suburb Mothers

Traditionally, the GOP playbook to successful statewide elections runs by way of the WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington), however Republican governor candidate Tim Michels underperformed in all of them. Johnson dominated in all three areas and obtained 5,943 extra votes in Waukesha in comparison with Michels.

Scholz mentioned the outcomes point out suburban mothers nonetheless have a riff with former President Donald Trump, who endorsed Michels forward of the first.

“I feel having Trump’s help helped Michels win the first, however not the final,” Scholz mentioned. “That Trump aura was across the Michels marketing campaign and whereas they did strive and push it off, it was nonetheless there.”

Republicans additionally misplaced floor in Milwaukee and Madison, two Democratic strongholds that helped carry Evers to a victory — but it wasn’t sufficient to elect Senate candidate Mandela Barnes. Low turnout within the Metropolis of Milwaukee could possibly be the rationale why.

Milwaukee noticed a decline in voter participation this 12 months, a drop of about 40,000 votes in comparison with the 2018 midterm.

Democratic strategist Melissa Baldauff mentioned a key to Barnes’ loss was how Republicans had been successfully ready to tie him to Milwaukee’s rise in crime.

“They ran these advertisements to make individuals assume there are these harmful younger black males like Mandela Barnes and individuals who know him perceive that is not who he’s,” Baldauff mentioned. “I feel Democrats can do a greater job of telling the constructive story about Milwaukee as a result of we all know there is a constructive story.”

Marketing campaign Technique

Michels operating as an “outsider” and going up in opposition to an incumbent who compares himself to “nice-guy Mr. Rogers” additionally performed a job, in accordance with Scholz.

“I do not assume they attacked Evers as a lot as they need to and their messaging was all about Michels, an outsider,” Scholz mentioned. “Evers outlined Michels and I do not assume Michels outlined Evers sufficient, they had been nonetheless working to outline him.”

Unifying the celebration after a divisive main in opposition to former Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch was one other problem for Michels, which Scholz provides is troublesome for any challenger.

Assault Adverts, Spending

Republicans and Democrats agree – the ugly assault advertisements and thousands and thousands of {dollars} pouring into the governor and senate contest had been efficient.

Evers outspent Michels 2 to 1. Johnson held a fundraising lead as effectively, however Barnes was capable of catch up after reporting his marketing campaign raised $20 million within the remaining weeks earlier than the final election.

Baldauff, a former aide to Gov. Evers, mentioned it was troublesome for Barnes to beat the string of assault advertisements on crime, police funding and tying him to progressive Democrats in Congress.

“Sadly, that is what occurs when somebody is outspent by practically $30 million,” Baldauff mentioned. “Johnson’s billionaire donors got here to his rescue and spent some huge cash on his behalf on nasty assault advertisements.”

Meeting Speaker Robin Vos, who fought off a Trump-backed main challenger, mentioned its proof damaging promoting labored in the most costly governor race within the nation this 12 months.

“It isn’t shocking generally individuals imagine the worst and I feel that is actually unhappy as a result of Tim Michels had a very good document that was completely distorted,” Vos mentioned. “We all know damaging promoting works.”

Abortion

Democrats efficiently used the overturning of Roe v. Wade of their favor, but it surely was a troublesome subject for Republicans.

Michels initially mentioned he supported Wisconsin’s 1849 legal abortion ban, which has no exceptions except a mom’s life is in danger. However then later modified his place, saying he would signal laws so as to add exceptions for rape and incest.

Sholz mentioned flipping on the difficulty and never revealing his help for exceptions quickly within the race could have dissatisfied girls voters.