Here’s the most logical path for the Packers to sneak into the playoffs

Getting into this weekend’s slate of video games, the Packers (5-8, tenth place within the NFC) maintain a 13.3 p.c likelihood to make the playoffs, based on The Athletic’s Austin Mock.

The Packers don’t management their very own future, so that they possible should win out and obtain assist elsewhere. Right here is likely one of the most probably situations for Inexperienced Bay, 4-8 earlier than a comeback win over the Bears in Chicago two weeks in the past, to weasel its means into the postseason (there are different particular situations, however The Athletic doesn’t need to be held liable on your head exploding whereas studying considered one of our tales):

The Packers beat the Rams on Monday night time in Inexperienced Bay, the Dolphins on Christmas Day in South Florida, the Vikings on New 12 months’s Day in Inexperienced Bay and the Lions the next weekend in Inexperienced Bay to complete 9-8.

The Lions, at the moment 6-7, go 2-2 or worse of their remaining 4 video games to complete 8-9 or worse. Detroit visits the Jets and Panthers earlier than internet hosting the Bears and visiting the Packers. If the Packers and Lions each end 9-8, the fifth tiebreaker (energy of victory) would come into play since they’d be even on the primary 4 tiebreakers (head-to-head, successful share inside the division, successful share in frequent video games, successful share inside the convention). Power of victory wouldn’t be determined till after Week 18 — the Lions at the moment maintain the benefit in energy of victory over the Packers, .487 to .446 — so let’s preserve it easy and say the Lions lose considered one of three earlier than dropping to the Packers within the regular-season finale.

The Commanders, who beat the Packers in Week 7 and are at the moment 7-5-1, beat the Giants on “Sunday Night time Soccer,” then lose on the 49ers, towards the Browns and towards the Cowboys to complete the season 8-8-1 — or lose to the Giants, lose on the 49ers, beat the Browns and lose to the Cowboys.

The Giants, who beat the Packers in Week 5 in London and are additionally at the moment 7-5-1, lose to the Commanders on Sunday night time, lose on the Vikings, beat the Colts and lose on the Eagles to complete 8-8-1 — or beat the Commanders earlier than dropping to the Vikings, Colts and Eagles.

The Seahawks, who helped the Packers’ playoff probabilities enhance by about 2 p.c after dropping to the 49ers on Thursday night time to fall to 7-7, lose on the Chiefs, beat the Jets and beat the Rams to complete 9-8.

The Panthers, at the moment tied with the Packers at 5-8, lose no less than considered one of their remaining 4 video games to complete 8-9 or worse (Carolina hosts the Steelers and Lions earlier than visiting the Buccaneers and Saints). For this train, let’s say the Buccaneers end 9-8 with a loss to the Bengals earlier than wins towards the Cardinals, Panthers and Saints to win the division and earn the No. 4 seed, and the Falcons, at the moment 5-8, end 8-9 or worse.

The Packers would get the No. 6 seed on this state of affairs by successful the tiebreaker towards the Seahawks due to a greater successful share in video games inside the NFC (Inexperienced Bay could be 7-5, and Seattle could be 6-6). That will imply a probable journey to Minneapolis or Santa Clara, Calif., for the opening spherical of the playoffs to face the No. 3 seed.

If the Commanders lock up the No. 6 seed by ending 9-7-1, nevertheless, and the No. 7 seed comes right down to the Packers and Seahawks each at 9-8 with the Giants (8-8-1), Lions (8-9 or worse) and Panthers (8-9 or worse) all out of rivalry, Inexperienced Bay would safe the No. 7 seed. That will nonetheless possible imply a visit to Minneapolis or Santa Clara to face whoever owns the No. 2 seed.

“Oh, yeah, I scoreboard-watch for positive,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers mentioned Thursday afternoon earlier than rooting for the 49ers to beat the Seahawks later that night time.

“To every their very own, proper?” head coach Matt LaFleur mentioned Friday morning. “I simply suppose that the place my mindset is, is making an attempt to arrange our workforce to be at our greatest come Monday night time.”

“I’m not gonna lie,” cornerback Rasul Douglas mentioned. “I’ve seen situations, however I believe it begins with us, although.”

In keeping with Mock, the Packers rank final among the many aforementioned groups in playoff chance. The Commanders rank first at 56.5 p.c, adopted by the Lions (53.5), Seahawks (42.9), Giants (27.5) and Panthers (15.5). If Packers followers are looking for who to root for Sunday, pull for the Jets towards the Lions (midday CT in New Jersey), the Steelers towards the Panthers (midday CT in Charlotte) and one other Giants-Commanders tie on “Sunday Night time Soccer” (it doesn’t actually matter who wins if there’s no tie).

Aside from that, do a variety of praying. The Packers might use all of it.

If Rodgers and firm pull this one off and in some way make the dance, this may be their best feat but (outdoors of successful the Tremendous Bowl) since he started beginning in 2008.

Starting with Monday night time’s tilt towards the Rams (4-9), the primary motive Inexperienced Bay can win out is its offense, particularly if kick returner Keisean Nixon retains setting it up with an advantageous subject place.

Neglect the protection for now, since defensive coordinator Joe Barry’s unit has supplied minimal motive for hope down the stretch.

Since Week 10, the Packers rank fifth within the NFL in factors per recreation (27.25), behind solely the Cowboys, Eagles, Lions and Chiefs, and fifth in offensive EPA per play (0.11), trailing the identical 4 groups. They’ve turned the ball over solely 4 occasions throughout that stretch, tied for the seventh fewest within the league. Rodgers additionally owns the fifth-highest passer score within the NFL amongst quarterbacks who’ve performed in all of their workforce’s video games since Week 10 (the 49ers’ Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo rank above Rodgers), with the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts, the Lions’ Jared Goff and the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes forward of him amongst that bunch.

Inexperienced Bay nonetheless options one of many league’s finest one-two punches at operating again in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, and it now flaunts a rookie receiver in Christian Watson who has scored eight touchdowns up to now 4 video games. Add gifted rookie wideout Romeo Doubs again into the combo as he returns from an ankle harm suffered in a Week 9 loss to the Lions and an offensive line with adequate reps below its belt as a unit, and possibly an offense that ranked twenty seventh in factors per recreation from Weeks 1 to 9 can carry the Packers because it has for the previous decade-plus.

“We’ve received to attain factors,” Rodgers mentioned. “We should be within the 30s transferring ahead. No matter what our protection does, we rating 30 factors, we should always win these video games. No matter it takes for us on offense. Clearly, we’ve been operating the soccer fairly nicely a lot of the season. The emergence of Christian and his dynamic skill’s been, clearly, a really welcome sight. We’ve received to seek out methods to get him the soccer, after which all people else, let’s simply do our roles and rating factors. If we are able to get forward of groups at house — we’ve got three out of 4 at house — we are able to put some issues collectively, I believe.”

(Picture: Michael Reaves / Getty Photos)