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Who will control Congress after 2024? These are the most vulnerable seats heading into a tight race

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Who will control Congress after 2024? These are the most vulnerable seats heading into a tight race


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WASHINGTON – There are hundreds of House and Senate lawmakers up for reelection in 2024. But just a handful of seats will determine control of Congress and give Americans the opportunity to send a message about which party they want at the wheel. 

While all eyes will be on the presidential race next year, congressional elections will also determine whether the next president can pass their agenda, or whether Washington will face further gridlock.  

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In the House, Republicans are seeking to defend and expand their razor-thin majority. Meanwhile, Democrats are eying crucial battleground districts held by the GOP that President Joe Biden won in the 2020 election.

Senate Democrats are hoping to hold on to their majority as they face significant headwinds among vulnerable incumbents in solidly red states.

Here are the races to keep an eye on heading into 2024.

The Biden 17

When it comes to control of the House, much of the focus will be on the 17 Republicans representing districts Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. 

House Republicans are trying to defend their majority as they continue their impeachment inquiry into Biden, among other investigations and conservative priorities. But as Democrats seek to recapture the lower chamber, these 17 races will be central in determining who wins the House.

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  • Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz.
  • Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz.
  • Rep. John Duarte, R-Calif.
  • Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif.
  • Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif.
  • Rep. Young Kim, R-Calif.
  • Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Calif.
  • Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb.
  • Rep. Tom Kean Jr., R-N.J.
  • Rep. Nick LaLota, R-N.Y.
  • Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y.
  • Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y.
  • Rep. Marc Molinaro, R-N.Y.
  • Rep. Brandon Williams, R-N.Y.
  • Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, R-Ore.
  • Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa.
  • Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va.

Not all of these lawmakers will necessarily lose their seats, and Republicans also have their own share of pick up opportunities heading into 2024. In Michigan, Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin and Dan Kildee are leaving their competitive districts, opening up their seats for Republicans’ taking. Slotkin is running for the Senate, while Kildee is retiring.

Montana’s Senate race offers GOP opportunity

Republicans have high hopes of reclaiming the Senate as Democrats play defense in two critical states former President Donald Trump won in the 2020 election: Montana and Ohio. 

Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., is running for a fourth term and has already won three tough elections in deep-red Montana. Testers’ chances of victory rely largely on whether ultraconservative Rep. Matt Rosendale, R-Mont., steps into the GOP primary. 

Republicans in Washington are coalescing behind Tim Sheehy, an aerospace company CEO and a retired Navy SEAL, to take on Tester next year. But Rosendale, who already ran against Tester and lost in 2018, has repeatedly teased jumping into the race again. 

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A competitive primary between Sheehy and Rosendale threatens to consume valuable GOP campaign resources and weaken the ultimate Republican nominee, potentially paving a way for Tester to win a fourth term. 

Will Sherrod Brown defend his seat in Ohio?

Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, like Tester, is also running for a fourth term. In recent presidential elections, Ohio has slowly trended right, fostering a favorable environment for Republicans.

GOP lawmakers are hoping to carry forward their momentum in the state from the 2022 midterm elections. During that race, now-Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, beat back Democratic hopes of flipping the seat, which was previously held by a Republican.

Going into 2024, the GOP has a chance to unseat Brown. Unlike Montana, Washington Republicans have largely avoided wading into the Republican primary, which is contested by three candidates: businessman Bernie Moreno, state Sen. Matt Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose.

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Moreno has earned the endorsement of Trump and Vance. Vance in 2022 secured the GOP nomination in part because of the former president’s backing.

But Brown has brushed off the tough race, saying in an interview with the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau “This campaign’s no different from any other.”

“Campaigns are about whose side you’re on. The reason I win is that voters in Ohio know that I’m on their side,” he said.

Will Arizona see a historic race?

Arizona, a notorious purple swing state, could see an unprecedented three-way race in 2024. Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., has not revealed whether she plans to run for reelection. Sinema left the Democratic Party in 2022 and has frequently drawn criticism from Democrats for bucking them on contentious issues. 

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Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., is the only prominent candidate running for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, conservative firebrand Kari Lake, the GOP’s 2022 failed gubernatorial candidate, is running against Mark Lamb, a pro-Trump sheriff.

Sinema has pitched her still-undeclared campaign to prospective donors as built on overwhelmingly winning independent voters and siphoning more support from Republicans than Democrats, the Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY Network, reported.

A memo to potential supporters included a pie chart suggesting she could claim 60% to 70% of Arizona’s independent voters. Her campaign sees her taking 10% to 20% of Democratic voters and 25% to 35% of Republicans.



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Ohio State’s defense is already elite, but these two players could make it even better

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Ohio State’s defense is already elite, but these two players could make it even better


COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio State’s defense has been nothing short of dominant this season, but what’s scary for future opponents is that it might be on the verge of getting even better.

The latest episode of Buckeye Talk revealed two fascinating developments that could transform an already-elite unit into something truly unstoppable.

The first involves what Stephen Means described as “the ultimate good problem” at the nickel position. While Lorenzo Styles has been solid, Jermaine Mathews has shown flashes of being an elite playmaker who can dramatically change games with his ability to create turnovers.

“This is, I think, the ultimate good problem that a defense could have — where the guy who’s doing a job isn’t doing it poorly, but there just might be a guy who is elite, elite, elite at it,” Means said.

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What’s Up With That? Why isn’t trick or treating always on Halloween?

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What’s Up With That? Why isn’t trick or treating always on Halloween?


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Why do central Ohio communities trick or treat on nights other than Halloween?

This week’s What’s Up With That? is a personal one, as it’s a query I’ve had since I moved to Columbus nearly seven years ago. What’s the origin of central Ohio’s complex (to outsiders) tradition of holding trick or treating (or Beggars Night, as some call it) on nights other than Oct. 31?

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It is a question that has been asked and answered by The Columbus Dispatch before. But to save you a journey through our archives, I’ll recap the history here. 

Why does central Ohio schedule trick-or-treating on nights other than Halloween?

Up until 2005, when the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission adopted the current system for recommending when communities should hold trick-or-treating, Columbus hadn’t held the event on Halloween itself in 90 years, according to past Dispatch reporting.

Columbus historically held a raucous Downtown Halloween party on Oct. 31, according to our archives, prompting the preference for Oct. 30 as the day kids could collect candy. That party was discontinued in the 1950s over too much revelry, but Oct. 30 trick-or-treating persisted.

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MORPC took on its role as trick-or-treat scheduler in 1993 and adopted the current system it uses to choose the date in 2005. MORPC’s recommendation is just that; communities are still free to set their own trick-or-treating days and times.

When is central Ohio trick-or-treating in 2025?

Here’s MORPC’s system: When Halloween falls on a Friday, Saturday or Sunday, trick or treat typically takes place the Thursday before Oct. 31 in central Ohio. When Halloween falls on a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday, expect costumed kids on the day itself. 

In 2015, a MORPC spokesman told the Dispatch the system was meant to increase convenience for families. Friday or Saturday night trick or treating could conflict with football (as could Sunday, for that matter, although in central Ohio it’s largely the first two putting a dent in people’s calendars).

Since Halloween falls on a Friday this year, the recommended trick-or-treat date is Oct. 30, and cities and towns have official candy-calling hours of 6-8 p.m.

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But there are exceptions. Here’s a look at which Franklin County communities are going their own way:

  • Bexley: 5:30 to 7 p.m. Oct. 30
  • Grandview Heights: 6 to 8 p.m. Oct. 31
  • Groveport: 5:30 to 7 p.m. Oct. 30
  • Madison Township: 5:30 to 7 p.m. Oct. 30
  • Worthington: 6 to 8 p.m. Oct. 31

You can see other communities’ hours in this list we published in early October.

Have a question about Columbus? I’ll find your answer

What other weird central Ohio traditions would you like to have explained? I’m happy to track down the information. Or just curious what that development is, or why the traffic pattern you hate is the way it is?

Email ekennedy@dispatch.com and I will see what I can do.

Eleanor Kennedy is the senior digital director of the Columbus Dispatch. She can breached at ekennedy@dispatch.com.



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Where is Ohio State football ranked in major polls after Week 8?

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Where is Ohio State football ranked in major polls after Week 8?


Ohio State showed no sign of loosening its grip on the No. 1 ranking this weekend.

The Buckeyes routed Wisconsin in a 34-0 win that marked the third time in four weeks that they prevailed on the road in the Big Ten to preserve their unblemished record.

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At 7-0, they are one of only six unbeaten teams left in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Below is their ranking in the major polls after Week 8:

Ohio State football rankings after Week 8

US LBM Coaches Poll

The Buckeyes are the consensus No. 1 among the coaches, receiving all 65 first-place votes following Miami’s loss to Louisville on Oct. 17.

The Hurricanes, who were previously unbeaten, had two first-place votes last week prior to the upset.

The rest of the top-five includes Indiana at No. 2, Texas A&M at No. 3, Alabama at No. 4 and Georgia at No. 5.

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AP Top 25

Ohio State received 60 out of the 66 first-place votes in the AP poll with second-ranked Indiana getting the remaining six.

Joey Kaufman covers Ohio State football for The Columbus Dispatch. Email him at jkaufman@dispatch.com and follow along on Bluesky, Instagram and X for more.





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